Why Blues’ Pavel Buchnevich is one Trade Target worth the high asking price this year

A mere three days away from Friday’s trade deadline at 3 p.m. ET, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story every day until Deadline Day.

Today we continue our player profile series with St. Louis Blues winger Pavel Buchnevich, who is No. 8 on our Trade Targets board and one of the most impactful players available on the market.

2024 Trade Deadline Countdown: 3 Days

PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
Left Wing, St. Louis Blues
Shoots: Left
Age: 28
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 197 lbs
Cap Hit: $5.8 million
Term: 1 year remaining
2023-24 Stats: 59 GP, 24 G, 24 A, 48 Pts, 19:54 TOI
Career Stats: 8th season (N.Y. Rangers, St. Louis), 496 GP, 159 G, 227 A, 386 Pts
Best Year: 2021-22, 73 GP, 30 G, 46 A, 76 Pts, plus-29, 18:18 TOI
Playoffs: 3 appearances, 1 round won, 20 GP, 1 G, 11 A, 12 Pts

Archetype and Ideal Role

Net-Front Scorer, Top line winger

Buchnevich is maybe hockey’s most unheralded point-per-game player. Since arriving in St. Louis in 2021, he is tied for 35th among all forwards with 0.98 points per game, the same amount as Dylan Larkin, Brad Marchand and Clayton Keller. That’s pretty elite company. Buchnevich is a difficult player to put into a box by archetype, but we’ll explain why he fits as a net-front presence. He can also play on a top power play unit in the bumper spot and be a shorthanded threat on a second penalty killing unit against tired power plays.

Scouting Report

When you think of net-front scorers, you think of big players with bruises all over their bodies from getting hacked and whacked in front of the net. Buchnevich has size, but for him, his game is all about arriving on-time. Buchnevich’s spatial awareness is off the charts. When you watch closely, it is key on zone entries. He doesn’t rush himself into coverage, and typically as the third man in, he finds the right angles to get open. But don’t kid yourself, Buchnevich also has the urgency and awareness to beat defenders to the back post.

He is able to get there because according to NHL EDGE puck and player tracking, Buchnevich is in the 92nd percentile in top skating speed at 23.15 mph. He is agile and has simple, straight-line speed – even with the puck.

And when he arrives on-time and in the right location, he makes it count. His high-danger shots on goal are in the 86th to 96th percentiles among forwards in both quantity and shooting percentage. On the whole, Buchnevich has an expected goals of 1.1 per 60 minutes, according to data by Stathletes, which is 66th among all 566 forwards. He is 65th in individual scoring chances, 69th in shots from the slot and 44th in expected goals scored off the cycle, which are all impressive numbers, essentially ranking him as the equivalent of the second best forward on all 32 teams.

On the power play, Buchnevich makes intelligent reads in the bumper spot to drift slightly out of coverage and make one-touch plays with the puck, whether it’s a shot or a quick dish. He can also effectively slide into spots close to the net to either draw a defender down or make himself available for tap-ins.

Buchnevich also presents a great stick in the offensive zone to disrupt plays on the opposition breakout or transition and can steal the puck to create a quick chance.

Buyer Beware

One thing about Buchnevich is that he is not a disruptor. He isn’t a physical player. He could do more to break up plays in the neutral zone, and he isn’t always first to pucks in the offensive zone on the forecheck. Coaches always preach: you’ve got to find a way to be first.

At times, because he is sneaky in an attempt to be out of sight and out of mind, he circles behind the net, which can result in Buchnevich being late up the ice and last on the backcheck.

Potential Suitors

• Carolina Hurricanes: The Canes don’t like to pay for rentals and Buchnevich isn’t one. He can be a difference maker that the Hurricanes could really use when it comes to netting big goals in the playoffs.
• Detroit Red Wings: As Steve Yzerman continues to build, Buchnevich fits Detroit’s salary cap picture now and moving forward, and he could take a playoff team and turn them into an upset threat. He might be a great fit to play as a finisher for Patrick Kane the way he can find soft ice.
• Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers continue to look for a top-six winger who can contribute in a meaningful way and Buchnevich checks that box. He was also great against Edmonton recently – and Ken Holland and Doug Armstrong are close.
• New York Rangers: Buchnevich was a cap casualty in New York, one of the first trades Chris Drury made as GM, and it’s probably one he’d like back – even if he couldn’t afford Buchnevich’s $5.8 million RFA deal then. It’s a bargain now. The Blueshirts have an opening on the wing and want to be aggressive.
• New York Islanders: Doesn’t sound like Lou Lamoriello is waving the white flag this season. The Isles need more scoring pop, more difference makers. Can’t rule them out.
• Vegas Golden Knights: One year ago, the Golden Knights acquired a Russian-born winger from St. Louis. They only went on to win the Stanley Cup. This Russian is better – and the VGK have $6.3 million in cap space and could afford his deal next season with the cap increasing.

Comparable Trade Returns

Feb. 14, 2022
To Calgary: Tyler Toffoli
To Montréal: 2022 1st Rd Pick (No. 26 overall), 2024 4th Rd Pick, 2023 5th Rd Pick, Emil Heineman, Tyler Pitlick

Feb. 10, 2020
To Pittsburgh: Jason Zucker
To Minnesota: 2021 1st Rd Pick (No. 26 overall), Calen Addison, Alex Galchenyuk

Doug Armstrong has set a high bar, a framework that reportedly includes two first-round picks, or one first-round pick plus a first-round equivalent, and an additional prospect. That’s because the Blues are in a no-lose position. Armstrong either gets a hefty price for one of the best players available at this deadline, or he puts him up for auction again this summer with more teams in the mix.

So, why would the Blues trade Buchnevich? The thinking among rival teams is that Armstrong isn’t going to be the one who ponies up to pay him a significant raise on his next contract, which could be signed as soon as this summer. Buchnevich is likely looking at a deal in the $8 million range per season, which is a lot. And there is question as to whether Buchnevich would even want to ultimately sign in St. Louis.

Those two trade comparables are presented as the bare minimum for Armstrong, but also goes to show just how valuable of a commodity that Buchnevich is. The point is: not often are impactful wingers with term traded, and when they are on the move, it’s not cheap. The Flames could’ve had three playoff runs with Toffoli at just $4.2 million when they made that deal with Montreal. He was the same age (28) as Buchnevich is now, but Buchnevich has a consistently higher ceiling overall than Toffoli. Zucker had 33 goals and 34 assists just 18 months prior to his trade from Minnesota to Pittsburgh.

Even if a team has no plans to re-sign Buchnevich after next season, he is a set-and-forget type addition to the lineup for two playoff runs and ultimately won’t go for such a prohibitive premium over Jake Guentzel, who is likely a rental.

Summary

Goals are hard to come by in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and they’re almost all scored from the area where Buchnevich has made a living. He might not have the fanfare that Guentzel or others have, but he is signed for one more year to justify the acquisition cost, and he could be just as impactful for twice as long.

Daily Faceoff analyst Jon Goyens contributed to this report. Find him on Twitter: @gourmet_hockey