Aside from his unsustainable PDO heater in 2017-18, Sutter’s only above-average season at 5v5 with the Canucks came in 2019-20. In general, his on-ice impacts were substandard for most of his tenure with the Canucks, and his net impact throughout those five years is a net negative. While he did have solid faceoff results, they’re not enough to outweigh the fact that Vancouver’s results significantly improved with Sutter on the bench. 

Sutter was a strong penalty-killer in his first three seasons with Vancouver, but that aspect of his game declined in the later half of his tenure on the Canucks, as they averaged 57 shorthanded chances allowed per hour with Sutter on-ice, compared to an improved 53 chances allowed per hour without Sutter.

Overall, Sutter’s results were never pretty at the NHL level in the first place. At age 34, and after two seasons without playing, I’m highly doubtful if he can be a capable and useful regular forward on a cup contender today.

As for Lane Pederson, he’s a fringe NHLer. While Pederson did have 17 goals in 18 AHL games last season, his AHL production has not translated to the NHL. Among the 470 players with a minimum of 700 TOI at 5v5 in the past three seasons, Pederson has produced just 0.82 points per hour at 5v5, ranking 459th in the league.

His awful production rates, combined with poor 5v5 on-ice results (37 GF%, 45 xG%) and the fact that he has little-to-no experience on special teams at the NHL level, make it doubtful if he can be a useful regular NHLer on a cup contender. 

The other PTO currently competing for a spot in training camp is Adam Erne. However, unless he blows it out of the park in the remainder of his pre-season games, it’s nearly a guarantee that Edmonton doesn’t choose him over a 4C or Lavoie on the opening-night roster.

So, is it worth signing Sutter or keeping Pederson on the roster over Lavoie? My answer would be no, for a variety of reasons.

Firstly, here’s a look at Edmonton’s bottom six and their results throughout McDavid and Draisaitl’s tenure in Edmonton:

For years, Edmonton’s bottom six was atrocious, as the team was consistently getting out-scored by a massive margin when both McDavid and Draisaitl were not on the ice. 

However, their goal differential immediately and significantly improved following Jay Woodcroft’s arrival in 2021-22. This past season in 2022-23, the bottom six was fantastic, out-scoring opponents at a ratio of 74 to 60 when their two superstars were not on-ice.

There were numerous reasons why the bottom six improved, with Jay Woodcroft evidently as one of them, but another factor for their resurgence was the fact that the bottom six finally began finishing their chances. Their most prominent finisher was Klim Kostin, who scored at a rate of 1.17 goals per hour at 5v5, ranking third on the Oilers, and 39th in the entire league.

With Kostin on-ice, the bottom six produced a 65 percent goal differential, while they were at 51 percent without him; 51 percent is still a net positive, and a massive improvement from what they had before, but it’s clear that a finisher made a big difference. 

Of course, Kostin’s shooting percentage ranked 7th in the entire league, and it was nearly 20 percent. His scoring rate was unsustainable, and it was difficult to keep him on the roster at a cap hit of $2M, which is why it’s understandable that the team was forced to let him go. However, the fact remains that a finisher can make a significant impact on the success of Edmonton’s bottom-six.

This is where Lavoie comes in. In 2022-23, Lavoie led the Condors with 25 goals in 61 games and ranked 17th in the league in even-strength goals (Lavoie’s production rates were even better in the second half of 2022-23, as Lavoie was coming off a season-ending knee injury at the beginning of the season). 

Unfortunately, Lavoie hasn’t shown enough in pre-season yet, but then again, it’s just two games thus far.

Edmonton’s current bottom-six doesn’t contain enough players with scoring potential, and I’d argue that Lavoie may have more scoring potential (strictly speaking in terms of goals) than nearly all of their current bottom-sixers. Perhaps Lavoie can be the scorer that the bottom-six needs. At the very least, I believe he deserves a chance to show what he can provide at the NHL level, as he doesn’t have much left to prove in Bakersfield.

Furthermore, out of all of Edmonton’s options for the 12th forward spot, Lavoie is by far the youngest at age 23, and has the highest upside. If the Oilers don’t have him on the opening-night roster, they’ll be forced to waive him.

While I wouldn’t be shocked if he clears waivers, it’s a risk I prefer not to take. The team is currently in need of a scoring right-shot winger. It would be a shame if Edmonton loses the second-round pick RW they’ve spent four years developing for nothing without giving him a single chance in the NHL, while they potentially replace him with a 34-year-old fourth-liner who hasn’t played in two years.

So, if the Oilers keep Lavoie on the roster, who plays 4C?

Perhaps the Oilers may not need a 4C in the first place

What if I told you that the Oilers may not actually need another fourth-line center? That’s because they may already have a 4C on their roster; Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Hear me out.

Last season, the Oilers had a record of 25-15-4 when playing 12 forwards and 6 defencemen, equating to a 0.613 points percentage. When playing with 11 forwards and 7 defencemen, they had a 23-8-3 record, equating to a 0.721 points percentage, considerably higher. With the latter alignment, McDavid and Draisaitl would be double-shifted as the fourth-line center and/or the 12th forward.

The 11F/7D alignment has a couple of advantages. Not only does it allow much more flexibility with the defensive pairs, but the TOI of the 12th forward is replaced with extra McDavid and Draisaitl TOI. This allows McDavid and Draisaitl to have more time to create offence, and potentially obtain shifts against opposition fourth-lines.

Of course, the obvious disadvantage of this is that running 11/7 for the entire season could tire their two superstars by double-shifting them every game. You don’t want to wear them out before the playoffs.

To solve this issue, Edmonton should alternate between 12F/6D and 11F/7D throughout the regular season. They can primarily run 11F/7D in the playoffs, as they have the most success with that alignment. When running 12F/6D in the regular season, the Oilers can deploy Ryan at 4C, while they can put him back on the wing when they play 11F/7D, allowing them to still have another winger like Lavoie on the roster.

So, consider that Edmonton is most successful with 11/7, the alignment in which they don’t have a regular 4C. Is it worth signing Sutter or keeping Pederson over Lavoie on the opening night roster just for the sake of a 4C, and taking the risk of losing Lavoie for nothing on waivers without giving him a chance in the NHL?

Giving Lavoie an opportunity the 12th forward, and rotating between Ryan at 4C and 11/7 throughout the regular season, is the route that I would personally go with to start the season. 

Another option, but much less likely, is to waive Mattias Janmark, and have both a center and Lavoie on the roster. This option would also accrue more cap space for the trade deadline, and I believe Janmark is a very replaceable player, but realistically, I don’t see it happening at all. Janmark was signed to a $1M contract even prior to the start of free agency, and Woodcroft seems to be fond of Janmark, so I would definitely expect him to be on the eventual roster.

With less than two weeks until opening night in Vancouver, it will be interesting to see what Woodcroft and Holland ultimately decide to do.