Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 4 prediction, pick for 4/24: Leafs look to keep momentum

Yardbarker Quick Pick

It's hard for us to look anywhere else but the over in this series. It has hit in all three games this series and in 13 of the past 16 meetings. As for a winner, it feels like a toss-up. Tampa Bay needs to grab a win at home here to tie the series, but we can't help but think Toronto can taste how close it is to taking control. We prefer betting on goals, sitting back and enjoying the show. Grab the over 6.5. — Griffin Carroll, Yardbarker

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Monday 7:30 p.m. ET
Toronto Maple Leafs: +1 (-194) puckline, +110 moneyline, over 6.5 (-104)
@ Tampa Bay Lightning: -1 (+165) puckline, -105 moneyline, under 6.5 (-115)

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While Jon Cooper said Brayden Point's disallowed goal in the second period was "not why we lost," the Lightning coach was still incredulous over the decision. Point's second attempt at a loose puck under the pads of goalie Ilya Samsonov pushed the puck over the goal line, yet the referee had halted play prior to the apparent goal.

"I have zero idea why he blew the whistle. It's shocking," Cooper said. "The entire building ... saw (the puck) was sitting right there."

Point's goal would have given Tampa Bay a 4-2 lead, and underlined the lopsided nature of the game's second period. The Lightning outshot Toronto by a 15-8 margin in the frame, and Darren Raddysh scored at the 13:34 mark to establish Tampa Bay's 3-2 lead.

Samsonov was the difference for the Maple Leafs all evening, stopping 36 of 39 shots. In particular, O'Reilly pointed to the goaltender's work in the second period as a key factor in Toronto's victory.

"I think Sammy was the biggest (reason we won)," O'Reilly said. "Especially getting out of that second period only down one was a huge thing. Obviously, they dominated us, they had some great chances and Sammy came up big."

O'Reilly completed the "Gordie Howe hat trick" with a goal, an assist (on Rielly's game-winner), and a fight. Rielly's hard push on Point into the boards early in the third period sparked an extended skirmish between the two teams, resulting in a pair of fights -- O'Reilly against Nikita Kucherov, and Auston Matthews versus captain Steven Stamkos.

The Lightning (75 minutes) and Maple Leafs (56) have combined for 131 penalty minutes in the series' first three games, with five major penalties apiece. Rielly initially was given a five-minute boarding major for his shove on Point, though the officials removed the penalty altogether after a video review.

Point briefly left the game in the aftermath of the collision, but he returned later in the third period. Defenseman Erik Cernak has been ruled out for Game 4 after missing the previous two games with upper-body injuries.

Mitch Marner leads all players with eight points (two goals, six assists) in the series. The Maple Leafs forward has recorded multiple points in all three games.

Corey Perry's five points (two goals, three assists) lead all Lightning skaters.

Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start again in net after stopping 23 of 27 shots in Game 3.

Toronto forward Sam Lafferty was fined $3,108.11 by the NHL Department of Player Safety on Sunday for cross-checking Ross Colton of Tampa Bay. The fine was the maximum allowed under the league's collective bargaining agreement.

Lafferty lowered the boom on Colton with 4:50 remaining in the second period on Saturday. Lafferty was assessed a minor penalty for roughing.