Top 10 Hart Trophy candidates for 2023-24

The Professional Hockey Writers Association’s definition of the NHL’s MVP tends to ebb and flow. During periods in which no dominant superstar lords over the league, we see occasional seasons in which the purist definition of the award wins out – such as 2017-18, when Taylor Hall put the New Jersey Devils on his back and took home the Hart Trophy. He arguably wasn’t the best player in the league that season, but no player was more valuable to his team. He got my first-place vote that season.

But today? The game has matured into a magical era of goals galore and once-in-a-century superstardom. Connor McDavid laps the field by such a wide margin – in a manner matched or exceeded only by Wayne Gretzky, Bobby Orr and Mario Lemieux – that projecting the Hart winner is now an exercise in projecting the second-place finisher. McDavid has captured two of the past three Harts and three of the past seven. Nowadays, it takes something earth-shattering to knock him off the pedestal, such as his injury in 2019-20, which opened the door for Leon Draisaitl, or Auston Matthews’ 60 goals in 73 games, which nabbed him the Hart in 2021-22.

In ranking my top 10 Hart Trophy candidates for 2023-24, then, the first step is naturally to place McDavid first. After that, it’s a matter of identifying which other players are capable of accomplishing something spectacular. Note the conspicuous absence of all-world talents Leon Draisaitl, Mitch Marner and Mikko Rantanen. Because they each share teams with perennial MVP threats, they’re highly unlikely to challenge for the Hart. The votes will be split between them and their superior teammates. Case in point: Draisaitl won it when McDavid got hurt but hasn’t finished higher than seventh in any other season despite tallying easily the second-most points in the NHL over the past seven seasons.

This list was almost impossible to pare down. I had to cut some truly worthy MVP candidates. Here are my top 10, with Betano odds in brackets.

1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (+105)

McDavid outscored the next closest NHLer by 25 points last season. Only Gretzky, Lemieux and Phil Esposito have won the Art Ross Trophy by a wider margin. If you exclude second-place Draisaitl, a.k.a. McDavid’s teammate, his margin was 40 points. Only Gretzky and Esposito have won the scoring race over any non-teammate by that much.

So, yes, McDavid exists in his own galaxy and will remain the Hart favorite for at least several more seasons. Over the past three seasons, the Oilers have a +462 scoring chance differential at 5-on-5 with McDavid on the ice. With him off the ice: -276. His impact is staggering.

2. Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils (+1900)

Hughes in my No. 2 spot probably feels aggressive. But it’s a matter of ceiling. The budding superstar exploded for 99 points last season and was a chance-generating machine for the New Jersey Devils…but he’s also just 22 years old. It’s therefore unlikely we’ve seen Hughes’ peak season yet. Playing on an absolutely loaded Devils roster, Hughes could end up a top-three scorer in the league this season. If he’s the driving force behind a team with as strong a chance as any to win the Presidents’ Trophy, he’ll have some MVP ingredients.

3. Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (+1700)

Matthews is the only other forward in this generation who can operate on his own plane of existence. McDavid is the most dominant offensive force alive, but Matthews is the best pure goal-scorer of his era. No one has put more pucks in the net since he debuted in 2016-17. Not only is he a perennial threat to lead the league in goals, but he also plays a strong defensive game. He earned his 2021-22 MVP on the back of his all-around play, not just his goal-scoring, and that same makeup makes him a Hart threat again this season. Working against Matthews, of course, is his inability to play a full season. When the sample size includes a game total in the low 70s, you have to play pretty much perfect hockey to win the MVP.

4. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers (+1200)

The subjectivity of the Hart vote works in Tkachuk’s favor. Every team in the league wishes they had a Matthew Tkachuk, right? He’s big, he’s strong, he agitates the opposition, he has soft hands and he’s a leader. He controls the game in a literal sense, posting consecutive 100-point seasons, but also in an emotional sense, getting into opponents’ heads. Last season, when Tkachuk finished third in the vote, the Panthers held a jaw-dropping 61.8 percent edge in scoring chances at 5-on-5 with him on the ice. Tkachuk tilts the competitive balance like few other players in the game, and that makes him the epitome of most value to his team.

5. Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars (+2900)

Robertson is Dallas’ first superstar since the glory days of Mike Modano – and maybe that doesn’t even describe Robertson accurately. Modano never finished higher than eighth in league scoring, whereas Robertson finished sixth in just his third full NHL season, posting the franchise’s highest point total (109) since they were the Minnesota North Stars. Robertson is 24, playing on one of the NHL’s best lines with Roope Hintz and Joe Pavelski and suits up for a rising Stanley Cup contender. As the best player on one of the league’s best teams, he’s operating in an ideal MVP environment, though some of his own teammates, such as blueliner Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger, could also be perceived as the most valuable Stars.

6. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins (+1700)

Boston’s mass exodus of high-impact talent threatens to cap Pastrnak’s overall scoring upside after his 61-goal explosion, yes. But it arguably increases his MVP odds. Imagine if Pastrnak remains one of the NHL’s most dominant scorers even after his team loses Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Taylor Hall and many others. ‘Pasta’ would check the “took the team on his back” narrative. Even on a team stacked enough to win an NHL-record 65 games last season, he finished second in the Hart vote, so he could earn serious consideration from voters if he’s perceived to be doing more on his own this season than last.

7. Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche (+900)

MacKinnon has knocked on the MVP door multiple times in his career, finishing as a finalist three times and a runner-up twice. No other player besides McDavid is as dangerous dashing up the ice with the puck on his stick. Following his 2021-22 Stanley Cup win, MacKinnon found a new gear at age 27 last season, piling up an incredible 111 points in just 71 games, good for 1.56 points per game. His pro-rated point total would’ve matched Draisaitl and Kucherov for the second most in a cap-era season at 128. MacKinnon is an all-world talent, one of the most valuable players in the league every year. But his fast-and-furious style wears down his body. He simply never plays anywhere close to a full season, averaging 12 missed games over the past three years. He’s thus a risky MVP bet despite unquestionably possessing MVP-grade ability.

8. Tage Thompson, Buffalo Sabres (+2900)

The big man is a matchup nightmare. Excelling ever since coach Don Granato moved him to center, Thompson has become an astounding post-hype success story over the past two seasons. It appeared the 2021-22 breakout was his big level-up, but he leveled up again last season, burying 47 goals and racking up 94 points, leaving his previous breakout in the dust. What if Thompson has yet another level in him? He’s already a superstar, a uniquely gifted specimen playing on a team with designs on playoff hockey in 2023-24. If Buffalo ends its NHL-record playoff drought at 12 seasons, Thompson will be one of the primary reasons why and will thus earn some MVP support.

9. Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche (+2900)

By 24 years old, Makar is a Norris Trophy winner, a Stanley Cup winner, a Conn Smythe Trophy winner and a two-time first-team All-Star. His career is just four seasons deep! One day, we’ll talk about him as one of the all-time greats at his position. Makar dominates all facets of the game, at both ends of the ice. And while Erik Karlsson stole the thunder in 2022-23 with the first 100-point season in 31 years, Makar is capable of putting together that type of signature campaign, too, without sacrificing defense. If anyone can become the first defenseman to win the Hart since Chris Pronger in 1999-00, it’s Makar.

10. Ilya Sorokin, New York Islanders (+7400)

The New York Islanders have endured a stagnant offseason. Their starting lineup looks virtually untouched going into 2023-24. Last year’s Isles graded out in the middle of the pack in generating and preventing scoring chances at 5-on-5 but returned to the playoffs because they received elite goaltending. Only Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark saved more goals above average than Sorokin, who started 60 of the Islanders’ games. They would not have made the playoffs without him. Given he’s as good as any goalie in the world today and the Isles are icing the same team, Sorokin is again positioned to have an enormous influence on his team’s success. When you directly determine your team’s spot in the standings, you’re a legitimate MVP candidate.

Other 2023-24 Hart Trophy candidates to watch: Nikita Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl, Mitch Marner, Elias Pettersson, Kirill Kaprizov, Mikko Rantanen, Tim Stutzle, Jack Eichel, Sidney Crosby, Juuse Saros, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox

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