Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Kailer Yamamoto

The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Mikey Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades.  Let’s say they sell, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Kailer Yamamoto of the Seattle Kraken. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Kailer Yamamoto

To start, Yamamoto is a 25-year-old winger with nearly 300 games under his belt at the NHL level. He was selected with the 22nd pick in the 2017 NHL draft, by the Edmonton Oilers. He would have his NHL debut in the 2017-18 season with the Oilers, where he scored three points across nine games. In 2018-19, the very next season, he played 17 games, but disappointed with just two points. But, a bright 2019-20 season, where he scored 26 points in 27 games was supposed to be his big break. Instead, the next three seasons (also his final three with Edmonton) resulted in 87 points in 191 games, with the highest point total in a season being 41. 

This season, Yamamoto joined the Kraken, with some upside still there from his first-round pedigree. But, across 43 games thus far, he has seen just 12 points (seven goals and five assists) while averaging just 12:12 time on ice per game (a career-low). Why would the Lightning be interested in someone like Yamamoto? 

Yamamoto Scouting Report

In the last Lightning deadline piece, Last Word looked at Thomas Novak. That’s important to note, because it was stated there that he plays more of a possession-based game, with strong transitional traits and a bit of an edge. For Yamamoto, it couldn’t possibly be any further from the same. For one, Yamamoto isn’t as physical, largely due to his size (5’8” and 153 pounds). He also isn’t exactly the most involved in the transitional aspect of the game. For the most part, he comes into the rush as a trailer, or the third forward in, and hangs in the high slot area for the most part. 

Now, as an offensive player, Yamamoto is a pass-first, pass-second, pass-third, shoot-fourth type of player. He’s constantly scanning the slot area for a passing option, and will often pull the trigger. While that is generally a good thing, he also forces passes that can lead to turnovers. Yet, if he is paired with someone like Michael Eyssimont, who is a high-volume shooter, or even one of Jeannot, Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul, or Brandon Hagel, who all often attack the slot, that could really work well stylistically. But the offence has been very inconsistent, and largely has come on the power play with Seattle. That said, his offence wouldn’t be the main focal point for a trade target. 

Yamamoto’s Strengths

Yamamto’s best quality is his defensive responsibilities. He isn’t physical, as mentioned, and can be out-muscled often in the cycle. But he won’t make mistakes in his own end much at all. That reliability and lack of costly mistakes being made is shown in how often he went up against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in the most recent Kraken and Oilers game. That has culminated in being placed in the 87th percentile of defensive stats via Evolving-Hockey (using goals above replacement and expected goals above replacement). Yamamoto is also in the 88th percentile in competition, meaning he faces tougher competition than 88% of the forwards in the NHL, per JFresh’s player cards. 

That being said, he is used in a shut-down role and holds up fairly well. So, maybe not exactly what the Lightning are looking for, considering they need more of a scoring punch. Yet, looking at AllThreeZones, plus the eye test, that playmaking is very notable. He records 2.37 high-danger assists per 60 minutes above the league average, a considerable margin. 

The Concerns For Yamamoto

The biggest concern for Yamamoto has already been listed: inconsistency and size. While his playmaking has been high-end, especially targeting the high-danger areas, it has not led directly to a lot of actual production. Not only that, but his lack of size and physicality doesn’t exactly fit into what the Lightning have pursued in prior deadlines. Generally, they go for high-energy players with a bit of an edge. While Yamamoto grades out well as a forechecker on AllThreeZones, that’s largely due to Seattle’s system, and isn’t totally reflected with the eye-test. 

What It Would (Likely) Take To Acquire Yamamoto

Looking at last year’s deadline, there are three comparable deadline deals. Vladislav Namestnikov (0.26 points per game) getting flipped to the Sharks for a 2025 4th round pick. Teddy Blueger (0.22 points per game) going to the Golden Knights in exchange for an AHL defender and a 2024 3rd round pick. Finally, the most comparable trade is Lars Eller (0.27 points per game) going to the Colorado Avalanche for a 2025 2nd round pick. 

Yamamoto this season has averaged 0.28 points per game, placing his production higher than the aforementioned three players. But Namestnikov was under-acheiving at the time of his deal, and had only belonged to the Jets for just a short time (he was traded there by Tampa the same day). Blueger is 6’0” and 185 pounds, and had 54 hits in 45 games the season he was traded. Yamamoto has 15 hits in 43 games. Different styles and impacts there. Finally, Eller had poor underlying offensive numbers but remarkable defensive numbers, while producing at the same rate as Yamamoto currently is. For reference, in the 2022-23 season, Eller ranked in the 95th percentile of forwards in Evolving-Hockey’s defensive metrics. Similar style and impact. What does that mean for a Yamamoto trade?

Lightning acquire Yamamoto

Kraken acquire Alex Barre-Boulet and a 2025 2nd round pick

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Yamamoto

The Lightning need more offence. Nikita Kucherov has been beyond phenomenal. Meanwhile Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, and Hagel have all done a great job producing themselves. But the rest of the roster has been inconsistent, and does not provide a whole lot of offensive upside either. That said, Yamamoto’s playmaking would absolutely be welcome on the roster. That’s especially true alongside high volume shooters like Eyssimont and Stamkos. Or evens with guys who attack the net, like Nick Paul and Tanner Jeannot (when healthy). 

Yet, it could be argued that Yamamoto would not be much better than what Conor Sheary has brought to the table. Yamamoto’s inconsistencies would bring about the same concerns that is already had with the forward depth as is. But, if the Lightning really like his defensive game enough and think they can make his playmaking work a bit more consistently, it could be worth some thinking. But at the price of a second round pick? That may be a bit too rich for the potential issues that may still arise even with the addition of Yamamoto. 

Advanced percentiles via JFresh, Evolving-Hockey, AllThreeZones (paid subscriptions required)

Raw stats and per game stats via Hockey-Reference