Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Ducks Left-Shot Defender

Vaakanainen’s Strengths

Vaakanainen’s skating, as mentioned earlier. It’s an intriguing addition to the Lightning back-end for sure. But, with that skating, he does well from the point. The Lightning love activating the defenders at the point to create offence. Whether that’s pinching in and playing low in the zone on occasion or shooting the puck. Vaakanainen isn’t necessarily a shooter (46 shots on goal this season) but he moves well at the point with his skating. He’s also really smart at pinching in and extending the offensive pressure. Additionally, he isn’t afraid to play down low in the offensive zone when there’s an opportunity to jump in. 

Meanwhile, he is third amongst Ducks defenders (with at least 100 minutes of ice time) in expected goals for percentage (43.4%). At five-on-five, that number jumps to 49.3%, which is second amongst Ducks defenders (all according to MoneyPuck). Then, according to Evolving Hockey, Vaakanainen ranks in the 89th percentile of defensive impact amongst all NHL defenders. On Natural Stat Trick, he is first amongst Ducks defenders with 200+ minutes of ice time at five-on-five (23.66). He’s 22nd in the league in expected goals against amongst defenders with 500+ minutes of ice time at five on five. 

Vaakanainen’s Concerns

If the Tampa Bay Lightning are targeting him at the trade deadline, the major thing for Vaakanainen is this: the scheme in Anaheim. They play a soft man coverage system. That may sound confusing, this isn’t Swiftball football. What that means is Vaakanainen takes a “man” or a forward to defend, based on the situation. If that guy strays too far from his spot, he will switch off for a new “man” to cover. That scheme used to be used by the Lightning, back when they won two cups. But Blashill, at the start of last season, switched to more of a zone coverage scheme. Essentially, defenders stay in an area and cover their ground. There were growing pains with this new system, but the mistakes have settled down. 

That being said, Vaakanainen would have to learn an entirely different scheme, in a short span, with new coaches and teammates. That is a tall task for anyone, let alone a player who has played just a hair over 100 NHL games. That, and his injury history is concerning. If they let go of a lot for him, and he gets injured, that’ll hurt big time. Meanwhile, Cernak is another injury prone player. While Vaakanainen is intriguing, can he be trusted to stay healthy in a new scheme where the Lightning play more physically? 

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: What A Vaakanainen Trade (Could) Cost

Eric Stephens of The Athletic posted a mailbag on February 2nd (linked, subscription required) where he discussed Vaakanainen. He mentioned it’s likely he sticks with the Ducks, as he is 25 years old still, and a former first. But, if he were to be dealt, Stephens specifically mentions a “young forward” as the return if he were to be dealt. So, a young forward… what exactly does that equate to? For one, it means the Ducks are likely only interested in an established prospect of some kind. Or, at least, a prospect that has been developing for a bit now. 

From Tampa Bay’s perspective, that’s good and bad. They don’t have the prospect cupboard to really pick from and outbid another team with. But, they may not have to part ways with a draft pick, which will aid in their likely attempt to add another piece. That said, here are two offers: one best-case, one worst-case. Essentially, highest offer versus lowest offer. 

High-cost trade:

Tampa Bay Lightning acquire Vaakanainen

Anaheim Ducks acquire Jack Finley, Cole Koepke, 2025 4th round pick

Low-cost trade:

Lightning acquire Vaakanainen

Ducks acquire Isaac Howard, Gage Goncalves, 2025 6th round pick

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Vaakanainen

Looking at the big picture, Vaakanainen seemingly won’t be super expensive. Yet, if they pay the higher end, they lose Goncalves and Howard. That’s a young player who showed some positive traits in his first few swings in the NHL, and their best prospect in their system. But, if the deal falls somewhere in between, it could be an excellent swing. With the Ducks having a logjam on the left side, again, Vaakanainen may be had for a good price. 

His speed, defensive abilities displayed this season, and the fact he plays the left side well make him a very intriguing trade target. Now, he likely could struggle early with the schematic differences, and it could be a risk that fires back on us. But sometimes, you have to make those swings. The potential there is good enough to say… we here at Last Word are in. 

Raw NHL stats and per game stats via Hockey-Reference

Advanced stats from Money Puck, Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick