Summer synopsis for the New York Islanders

Last season saw the Islanders sneak into the playoffs in a tight Eastern Conference wild-card race under first-year head coach Lane Lambert. They again struggled to put the puck in the net, failing to finish above 20th overall in goals scored yet again — a mark they haven’t achieved since John Tavares was their captain. With netminder Ilya Sorokin putting up a masterclass in the crease, however, they still rebounded after missing the playoffs in 2021-22 despite star forward Mathew Barzal missing most of the tail end of the season. They hope their offensive fortunes will change with a full season of both Barzal and Bo Horvat as they aim to rediscover the magic that led them to back-to-back Eastern Conference Final appearances in 2020 and 2021.

Draft

2-49: F Danny Nelson, USA U18 (NTDP)
4-113: F Jesse Nurmi, KooKoo (Finland U20)
5-145: F Justin Gill, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
6-177: D Zach Schulz, USA U-18 (NTDP)
7-209: D Dennis Good Bogg, AIK (Sweden U20)

The Islanders were out two picks in this year’s rather deep draft and didn’t trade to recoup the ones they lost. Their first-round pick, 17th overall, was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks in the Horvat trade, who eventually flipped it to the Detroit Red Wings as part of the return for defenseman Filip Hronek. They conceded their third-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes two summers ago to get out of the tail end of forward Andrew Ladd’s contract, who officially announced his retirement yesterday. To no one’s surprise, the Islanders’ top pick was a distinct Lou Lamoriello archetype, as Nelson projects as a gritty, two-way center who fights for net-front scoring opportunities (and also stands at 6-foot-3 and over 200 pounds). Public scouts are split on his offensive ceiling at the NHL level, however, and he was a late riser up draft boards after recording seven points in seven games for the U.S. at the U18 World Juniors.

Nurmi, however, was quite a solid value pick in the fourth round and will battle for a full-time role in the Liiga with KooKoo after registering a point-per-game at the U18 World Juniors and notching 50 points in 41 games for KooKoo’s U20 club. Gill was the first of two over-age selections – a bit of a puzzling choice with only five selections to spare – but did have a breakout year in juniors with 44 goals and 93 points in 68 games, finishing ninth in QMJHL scoring. Already 20 years old, he projects to return to the QMJHL with Baie-Comeau after an offseason trade for an over-age season instead of turning pro. Schulz didn’t put up flashy point totals with the USNTDP, but he displayed consistent rush-defending instincts all season and will kick off his collegiate career at Wisconsin in 2023-24. Good Bogg, the Isles’ other over-age selection, looks to land a full-time roster spot with AIK in the second-tier Allsvenskan after skating in five games with them last season.

Trade Acquisitions

none

UFA Signings

F Pierre Engvall (seven years, $21M)
F Julien Gauthier (two years, $1.575M)
F Karson Kuhlman (one year, $775K)*
D Scott Mayfield (seven years, $24.5M)
F Brian Pinho (one year, $775K)*
G Ilya Sorokin (eight years, $66M) [extension, begins 2024-25]
G Semyon Varlamov (four years, $11M)

*-denotes two-way contract

The Islanders were busy handing out cash this summer, albeit to retain existing talent. Lamoriello locked up his franchise-defining netminder through the 2031-32 campaign, and Sorokin will be the third-highest-paid active goalie in the league when his $8.25M AAV extension starts in 2024. It’s the fourth-largest Lamoriello has signed in terms of total value throughout his lengthy career as an NHL GM, trailing the recently inked Horvat and Barzal extensions, as well as Ilya Kovalchuk’s 15-year, $100M whopper signed with New Jersey in 2010. He has full no-move protection for the first half of the deal and a 16-team no-trade list in the latter half. Given he’s put up over a .920 save percentage for two straight seasons and during his two playoff appearances, it seems an extremely safe bet for a player likely to be their franchise cornerstone for the better part of the 2020s. Without much change to the team in front of him, expect Sorokin to put him strong numbers again in 2023-24, the last season they’ll have him at his bargain $4M cap hit.

Mayfield got an eyebrow-raising long-term commitment. Although $3.5M per season isn’t a gross overpayment for his services, he’ll be 37 when his contract ends and still has trade protection. He did, however, post a career-high 24 points last season and finishes out a strong right side on defense behind Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock. Engvall also got a long-term commitment to make him a middle-six fixture on the Island for the rest of the decade. Acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs before last season’s trade deadline, the 27-year-old Swede played out the season in a top-six role alongside Brock Nelson and notched five goals and nine points in 18 games. Varlamov also remains on an affordable cap hit to reprise his role as Sorokin’s mentor and backup through 2027, at which point retirement seems likely at age 39.

Gauthier and Kuhlman were brought in to fight for spots in the team’s bottom six alongside guys like Hudson Fasching, who enjoyed a breakout 2022-23 campaign. Kuhlman is a likely candidate to get waived and assigned to AHL Bridgeport if he doesn’t have an extremely strong camp, and he’ll be a major player there along with Pinho, whom the Islanders also signed to add some minor-league depth.

RFA Re-Signings

D Samuel Bolduc (two years, $1.6M)
G Jakub Skarek (two years, $1.55M)*
F Oliver Wahlstrom (one year, $874K)

*-denotes two-way contract

Missing the last 46 games of the 2022-23 season with a lower-body injury cost Wahlstrom in more ways than one. He was on pace for a career-high 37 points had he played a full season, but instead, the 2018 11th overall pick had to settle for a one-year contract equivalent to his qualifying offer after holding out two weeks into July. The toolsy 23-year-old has had his moments in the big leagues, but he’s arguably been under-utilized by his coaches on the Island while simultaneously not quite doing enough to lock down a top-six role. He has 61 points through 161 games thus far, but if he can come back healthy and break out in 2023-24, he’ll play a large part in solving the team’s scoring deficiencies.

Bolduc, 22, will likely start the season in the opening night lineup with Alexander Romanov’s recovery from offseason shoulder surgery still ongoing. He made his NHL debut last season, scoring three points in 17 games and making two playoff appearances. The team’s second-round pick in 2019 figured things out at the pro level last season, recording 35 points in 59 games with AHL Bridgeport. There were some visible growing pains in his NHL transitions and some mistakes he’ll need to clean up, but he’ll factor in as the team’s seventh defenseman when everyone is healthy and gain some valuable experience from being on the NHL roster.

Seeing Skarek receive a qualifying offer, let alone a two-year commitment was surprising. Entering his fifth pro season with AHL Bridgeport, he’s yet to post above a .900 save percentage and has just a 37-49-10 record at the AHL level (with a career .893 save percentage). What’s even more surprising is he’s currently slated to be Bridgeport’s starter and the Isles’ first call-up option should Sorokin or Varlamov go down with injury – they haven’t signed a veteran goalie to assume the AHL starting role. One has to assume that a signing will come this month.

Departures

F Collin Adams (Kalamazoo, ECHL)
F Andy Andreoff (Novosibirsk, KHL)
F Josh Bailey (trade with Chicago, subsequent buyout)
F Cole Bardreau (Bridgeport, AHL)
F Blade Jenkins (Worcester, ECHL)
F Jeff Kubiak (Bridgeport, AHL)
F Zach Parise (unsigned UFA)
D Parker Wotherspoon (Boston, one year, $775K)*

Bailey finishes out his Islanders career on a low note, but he still had a remarkable stint as one of the most consistent playmakers in franchise history, sitting fourth all-time in assists for the Islanders. After recording just 25 points in 64 games last season, however, his $5M cap hit for next season was unjustifiable with the team in a financial crunch as is. Parise remains on the UFA list, and Lamoriello said earlier today he won’t be at training camp but isn’t ruling out an in-season return. He notched 21 goals on a bargain-bin deal last season and has played in all 164 games since joining the Islanders in 2021. The only other player on this list who skated in NHL games for the Islanders last season is Wotherspoon, who will move onto a minor-league role in the Bruins organization after recording an assist in 12 NHL games for New York.

Adams, Andreoff, Bardreau, Jenkins, and Kubiak were all minor-league forwards. Bardreau and Kubiak are remaining in the organization on AHL contracts with Bridgeport next season.

Salary Cap Outlook

The Islanders are tight to the cap and won’t be able to start the season with a full 23-player roster, per CapFriendly. Their projections currently put the Islanders at a cap hit of $83.99M, which can be decreased below the $83.5M Upper Limit if they operate with just two extra skaters.

Key Questions

Time To Break Up The Identity Line?: The Islanders don’t have many notable pending free agents after their spree of extensions earlier this summer. However, two core members of the Isles’ famed fourth line, Cal Clutterbuck and Matt Martin, are entering the last season of their contracts. As they’re both over 34 years old and their already meager offensive output is dwindling, the writing seems on the wall that one or both won’t be returning for 2024-25. With that said, does Lambert dare demote one of them to a 13th forward spot if others (like Gauthier, Kuhlman, or even a younger prospect) impress in camp? Their once-famed defensive impacts fell off a cliff last season – the unit played the most minutes together of any Islanders line but posted an abysmal 41.3% expected goals share, per MoneyPuck’s model.

Can Wahlstrom Break Out?: As referenced earlier, the Islanders are tight to the cap and don’t exactly have a lot of value contracts. Wahlstrom’s one-year extension is the only one with serious potential to give the Islanders 40+ points at a discount, and although it may cost them against the cap in 2024-25 with a more significant extension, they’d like to see him put things together and be a major top-nine contributor this season. Doing so would certainly help pad the loss of Parise, whose 21-goal void they haven’t really filled.