Stanley Cup windows 2023-24: Pacific Division

Where does every NHL franchise sit on its contention timeline? So far in my 2023-24 Stanley Cup Windows series, I’ve analyzed the Atlantic, Central and Metropolitan Division teams. We conclude with the Pacific Division, which houses the current Stanley Cup champion in the Vegas Golden Knights.

WINDOW WIDE OPEN

Edmonton Oilers

There’s a perpetual sense of urgency around the Oilers, predicated on the idea that they “have to win during the peak of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.” But it might be overblown. McDavid, 26, still has three years left on his contract. Draisaitl, 27, has two years left. Granted, the rest of Edmonton’s core players are nearing the end of their primes; Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 30, Zach Hyman and Evander Kane are 31, Darnell Nurse is 28, Mattias Ekholm is 33. It’s true that their contracts will eventually take on water. But the fact of the matter is: the Oilers have a dangerous current core all under contract for two more seasons at minimum, which includes two Hall of Fame talents still at the peak of their powers who essentially extend the prime years of any teammates in their orbit. The party ain’t over yet in Edmonton, even if the Oil don’t go all the way in 2023-24. Two more home run swings in this group, at least.

Los Angeles Kings

The strangest thing about the Kings’ “rebuild” is, for the most part, their highest-pedigree prospects are not the ones actually fuelling their rise in the standings. Some of them, like Brock Faber, Gabe Vilardi and Rasmus Kupari, became trade fodder, used to bring in more veteran talent. The Kings’ new wave of top contributors – Phillip Danault, Kevin Fiala, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Viktor Arvidsson, Vladislav Gavrikov – have been acquired via free agency and trade. But since Fiala and Dubois are still in their prime years, the Kings are bridging the gap successfully between them and the franchise glory-day holdovers Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty. It’s not that the Kings have grown nothing from within; they have a strong system of support players including Adrian Kempe, Arthur Kaliyev, and Mikey Anderson, and Brandt Clarke is one of the top young defense prospects in hockey. But it’s fascinating that their perceived elite-tier draft picks, such as Quinton Byfield and Alex Turcotte, aren’t the ones driving the bus. Despite the somewhat unconventional roster construction path, GM Rob Blake has built a well-rounded team with as strong a shot as any to win the Pacific Division in the next few seasons.

WIN-NOW WINDOW

Seattle Kraken

Wait, aren’t the Kraken only two years old? Didn’t they just draft Matty Beniers and Shane Wright? What urgency could a franchise feel after qualifying for its first postseason ever? Hear me out. The Kraken exceeded expectations last season but did so with a sneaky-old core group of players. Between Jared McCann, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle at forward and Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, Justin Schultz and new addition Brian Dumoulin on defense: every one of those key contributors is between 28 and 33. Four of the Kraken’s top six blueliners are 30 or older. The Kraken currently have the seventh-oldest roster in the NHL, with an average age of 28.42. They certainly have the potential to widen their contention window as Beniers, Wright and other prospects such as Jagger Firkus, Tye Kartye and Eduard Sale mature. But they sit in a mini win-now window with many of their best players approaching their decline years.

Vegas Golden Knights

No shade here. The Golden Knights know what they are. There’s a reason they’ve traded almost every prospect worth anything since their 2017 inception – and fulfilled owner Bill Foley’s vision of a championship within six years. The Golden Knights are a win-now operation every season. Sometimes, as they learned with a 2021-22 playoff miss, the wheels can fall off when you’re relying on a relatively older core with a higher potential for injury. But they still mix in enough prime-aged talent to reload and contend almost every season. First-line center Jack Eichel feels like he’s been around forever but is still just 26. Freshly re-signed Ivan Barbashev is 27, as are defenseman Shea Theodore and goaltender Adin Hill. The only reason I don’t place Vegas in the wide-open window with Edmonton: whereas the Oilers are at least injecting some young upside into their lineup as the likes of Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner mature, the Golden Knights have no exciting youth breaking through at the NHL level right now. Their projected 2023-24 lineup has no player younger than 23 and just three players 25 or younger, each of whom is a role player (Paul Cotter, Brett Howden, Nic Hague).

FOGGY WINDOW

Calgary Flames

Does any franchise have a foggier window than the Flames right now? You could write your name in the moisture. This offseason, the Flames fired coach Darryl Sutter, parted ways with GM Brad Treliving and set up a new regime including Craig Conroy as GM, Jarome Iginla as his special advisor and Ryan Huska as head coach. They weathered a storm of 2024 UFAs confessing that they didn’t plan to re-sign in Calgary and said goodbye to one of them, shipping Tyler Toffoli to the New Jersey Devils. That was June 27. Since then? Pretty much nothing. Their lineup is virtually untouched. The Flames might need prospects such as Jakob Pelletier, Connor Zary and Matt Coronato all to start 2023-24 in the NHL just to ice a full lineup. That said, they still own a pretty respectable group of veterans at the moment. Nothing wrong with a top four on ‘D’ of Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, MacKenzie Weegar and Chris Tanev, nor a center trio of Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund and Nazem Kadri or a three-headed goalie monster of Jacob Markstrom, Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf. But we just don’t know how many of these players will actually be Flames by October. It’s extremely difficult to figure out Conroy’s plan at the moment.

Vancouver Canucks

If you can understand who the Canucks are, good for you. I certainly cannot. For the second consecutive season, they struggled early, changed coaches partway through and played well enough in meaningless stretch-run games under their new bench boss to tease us. Any team built around Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko, J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser and Thatcher Demko should at least have a chance at a competitive year. But the Canucks struggle to get out of their own way and send mixed messages with their roster construction. They adopted a seller posture with the Bo Horvat trade in the winter, then gave up the conditional first-round pick they received from the New York Islanders in that trade to acquire defenseman Filip Hronek from the Detroit Red Wings just weeks later. They held Miller long enough for his no-movement clause to activate along with his seven-year contract at an $8 million AAV, missing a chance to get out from under a contract that might age badly. So they exist in a no-man’s land, armed with some pretty impressive talent at the top of the roster, but shallow on defense and with most of their best prospects years away from contributing. They embody the shrug emoji. They can’t pick an identity.

WINDOW UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks want to believe their window is opening. That’s why they signed Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas this offseason. After adding Leo Carlsson with the No. 2 pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, a franchise that already boasts Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish up front and an enviable defense pipeline should be ready to break through one of these years, right? I’m not convinced it’s this season. The Ducks finished last overall in 2022-23, don’t forget. And while they should be extremely excited about defensemen Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov and Tristan Luneau, we’re unlikely to see them in the NHL quite yet – though perhaps Zellweger impresses enough in camp to get a look. On the whole, though: great prospect pool, but the Ducks need to improve a ton before we take them seriously.

WINDOW SMASHED

San Jose Sharks

When the Sharks snagged Will Smith at No. 4 overall last month, they made their highest NHL Draft pick in 25 years. That should give you some perspective on how long they have to go before they develop a truly robust generation of prospects to succeed veterans like Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl at the NHL level. While the Sharks did sell off Timo Meier last season, not to mention Brent Burns last summer, they’re still towing around plenty of veteran holdovers from the successful Doug Wilson era. Erik Karlsson in particular is the name that stands out following his 101-point, Norris Trophy-winning campaign in 2022-23. It’s a near certainty that GM Mike Grier cashes out Karlsson at this point. Once that happens, San Jose should finally be bad enough to truly bottom out. Then the rebuild can accelerate. The good news is that the Sharks are the closest to rock bottom they’ve been in decades. Their .366 points percentage in 2022-23 was their lowest since 1995-96.