Projecting Flyers Defense When Staal, Ristolainen Return

Also returning to practice on Tuesday was veteran defenseman Marc Staal. The 36-year-old was off to a solid start this season when he suffered an upper-body injury on a hit by Edmonton Oilers forward Warren Foegele on Oct. 19. Staal was given a four-to-six-week recovery timeline, which fits with his return. Though Staal was wearing a non-contact jersey and said after practice he won’t be back for the Flyers’ next game on Wednesday, his return is imminent.

Rasmus Ristolainen’s timeline isn’t quite as clear, but he seems to be on the right track, as well. Ristolainen hasn’t played all season due to an injury that was initially supposed to be minor. However, John Tortorella said he suffered a setback on Oct. 24, and Tuesday was the first time he’s practiced with the team in a while.

“I feel good. Hopefully gonna be playing soon. I’m on the right track right now,” Ristolainen said.

For Staal and Ristolainen to return to game action, though, moves will have to be made. One shoe dropped on Tuesday when Victor Mete, who was called up to provide depth in the wake of the Staal injury, was sent to the AHL. However, more changes seem to be on the horizon.

Who’s Safe

There are a few defensemen on the Flyers whose long-term lineup security isn’t in jeopardy. Travis Sanheim is still off to a strong start this year, and at a $6.25 million cap hit, the Flyers are stuck with him whether they want to be or not. Fortunately, the former has been true this season. Sanheim leads the Flyers with 14 points, which puts him tied for fifth among all NHL blueliners.

If Sanheim is in the top tier of the Flyers’ d-core, Cam York and Sean Walker are in the second section. York’s had an up-and-down season, which is understandable for a 22-year-old. York hasn’t produced as much offense as the Flyers were hoping for, especially on the power play. He was even benched in the third period of the Flyers’ 5-0 loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Nov. 4.

However, his underlying numbers are still solid, and York is at the point in his development where he’s better off learning from his mistakes at the NHL level. Though he is still waivers exempt, it would be stunning to see him sent down. A one-game healthy scratching isn’t out of the question, but for the most part, York is here to stay.

Speaking of the Kings, Walker has gone from an unheralded part of the Flyers’ three-way deal to jettison Ivan Provorov over the summer to a key member of their top four. There was a time when Walker looked like part of the future in Los Angeles before injuries and other players emerging got in his way. Among Flyers regulars, only forwards Joel Farabee and Tyson Foerster have a higher Expected Goals share at 5-on-5 than Walker (57.20%). The Flyers are outscoring opponents 16-12 with Walker on the ice at 5-on-5. He’s also chipped in six points, including a two-assist game against his former team on Nov. 11.

Who’s On the Bubble

Louie Belpedio will almost certainly be the first player to come out of the lineup. It’s been a great feel-good story to see the 29-year-old journeyman not only finally reach the NHL, but score his first two goals, as well. However, Belpedio is not a part of the Flyers’ long-term plans, and aside from the two goals, his play hasn’t been anything to write home about.

Among Flyers players to play at least five games, only Ryan Poehling has a worse xG%. Belpedio is riding a bit of a PDO bender right now (his is currently at 105.4, significantly above the average of 100). Philadelphia would be better off beating the inevitable regression to the punch. The Flyers could opt to keep Belpedio as an NHL-healthy scratch rather than immediately demote him, especially until Ristolainen also returns. Being a right-handed shot helps his odds, but not enough to keep his spot.

Once Ristolainen comes back, however, the decision gets a bit tougher. It will also call into question whether the Flyers stick to their focus on developing young players and focusing on the future. Nick Seeler has probably played better so far this season than Egor Zamula, and he was certainly the better NHLer last year given that Zamula spent almost the entire season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms (although Seeler had a strong year in his own right).

Seeler’s 54.98% xG% is much better than Zamula’s 49.21% mark. He also provides more value by playing on the penalty kill, a role Zamula does not fill. Seeler is also the more consistent player of the two. The Flyers know what they will get from the tough 30-year-old on a night-in and night-out basis. Zamula, meanwhile, has had more peaks and valleys. That’s to be expected from someone who’s just 23 years old and has only played in 38 NHL games.

So it’s probably Tortorella’s instinct to stick with Seeler if he had to choose between the two right now. But that’s probably the wrong decision. Seeler is a UFA at the end of the season. While it wouldn’t be shocking to see him stick around as a place-holder, that’s all he is in the grand scheme of the Flyers’ long-term plans. Zamula may not be a fit, either, but at least he has a chance. There’s still top-four upside in the lanky Russian defender, and even if he doesn’t hit his ceiling, Zamula could still settle in as a cost-controlled third-pairing blueliner whose prime is still in the future.

You could make future-based arguments to keep Seeler in the lineup. It’s important to reward who’s playing well, Seeler’s toughness is appreciated within the locker room, and keeping him in a regular role makes him a more attractive trade deadline candidate. But it’s not like Zamula is unplayable. Nicolas Deslauriers and others (especially Ristolainen) provide enough physicality themselves. And the difference between say, a third and a fifth-round pick probably isn’t worth sacrificing Zamula’s development — especially since he would have to clear waivers to go to the AHL.

Projecting the Defense When Healthy

Let’s assume within the next week or two, Staal and Ristolainen are back in game shape. Here’s what the Flyers defense should look like.

Walker has earned the right to see whether he can handle a bigger role. Ristolainen could take the top-pair spot eventually, but he’s historically struggled in first-pair minutes, and it would be smart not to throw him to the wolves right away. The Flyers may keep the York-Sanheim pair together, though, especially since Sanheim has liked playing on the right side this season. But since York isn’t playing at top-pair caliber, taking a bit of a break makes sense.

Ultimately, the Flyers could wind up being back in the lineup rotation they had at the start of the season when Emil Andrae was still in the NHL. Tortorella said well before Staal’s injury that he probably wouldn’t be an every-game player, both because of his age and because of the Flyers’ focus on prioritizing their youth. So, as long as Zamula’s play is at least solid, it probably makes sense to ride whichever of Staal and Seeler are playing the best. And since Ristolainen likely won’t return for a bit longer, Tortorella can play both at the same time for a little while before making that call.

Reconstructing the defense may not be the world’s most important exercise. But every little thing matters as the Flyers try to ensure this buildup leads to better days soon.

Advanced Statistics via Natural Stat Trick