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NHL Tuesday bets: Turning back to SOG props

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 12/6/22

The NHL betting market feels like a river lately. We take different paths, it works for awhile, then the stream starts to slow down until we find a new path that picks us back up. It's been intriguing to study, as there was a stretch where game totals were powering our winning nights. I still believe and bet that market, but the turn has occurred.
In the past week or so, the pull of props has returned, and there's been success there that merits us to go down that stream again. With that winding analogy established, today on the ice is all about shots on goal props.

Auston Matthews over 4.5 SOG (+118 FD)

Matthews is picking it up lately, going for 5+ shots in three of his last four games, with all three of those hits coming on the road.

He's facing Dallas tonight in what is one of the marquee matchups of the evening. Last year when Matthews went to go play the Stars on the road, he piled up 12 SOG and scored twice.

The Stars can be stingy to shots, but they've really struggled giving up penalties, and in slots Matthews as the PP shot leader for Toronto. I'm liking the rise in volume from Matthews, and in a star-studded matchup I like him to show out.

Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 SOG (-110 FD)

I see some value in finding a Lightning shot prop tonight, as they average around 32 per game at home while the Red Wings see about the same against them on the road.

Kucherov hasn't been very consistent lately, going over 3.5 shots just once in his last six games, so why the love on him here tonight?

The volume has remained, he's averaging 5.6 attempts per game over his last five, which tops the team.

He's also loved, and I mean loved, facing Detroit. Last year he faced them four times, averaging 5.3 SOG/game, going over 3.5 each time, and scoring twice.

Going back even further and you see Kucherov has recorded four or more SOG in 11 of his last 14 games against the Red Wings, more often than not registering 5+.

He's due to get back on the board, and this seems like the right spot to give him a chance.

.5u: Matthews & Kucherov goals (+388 CZR)

By all means, take these separately, it's more responsible. For some reason I'm drawn to parlaying this combo of stars to both find the back of the net tonight. I like the volume, so why not expect one in the net too?

Noah Dobson & Brent Burns over 2.5 SOG (+150 DK)

There's no science behind it but when I parlay shots on goal looks I tend to want to combine defensemen when possible.

Noah Dobson has been a volume monster for the Islanders, especially at home. He'll see the Blues tonight, a team that allows 34.5 shots per game and the fifth-most shots per game to defensemen. I'll gladly bet on Dobson keeping it rolling, even though he went under against St. Louis this season.

Brent Burns should be able to deliver for us tonight against the Ducks. Anaheim struggles with penalties and allowing shots to defensemen, and that checks two very important boxes for Burns. Burns is second on Carolina in PP shots.

Andre Burakovsky over 2.5 SOG (-118 FD)

I'd like to target Montreal tonight on a back-to-back. Even if they were rested, this is a team that allows 34.3 shots per game on the road, so we need a piece of the Kraken.

I like Burakovsky. He's been steady, going over this number in six of his last seven games and four straight at home. Solid volume, and he leads Seattle in power-play shots, a factor that tends to lead to winning SOG bets for guys facing Montreal.

I've considered Seattle for their team total with Jake Allen expected in net, but I don't love the price. I'll take that belief and just bet Burakovsky to score as well.

.5u: Burakovsky goal (+225 CZR)

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