NHL Thursday bets: Totals and SOGs for a loaded night on the ice

You may be surprised to see me betting against Igor Shesterkin, but I'm seeing enough to load up the Stars over 2.5 here, though do note that I've included overtime in this instance for some added insurance.

At a high level, Dallas is averaging 3.1 goals per game on the road and the Rangers are allowing 3.1 per game at home, which is what got the Stars on my radar. Dallas has scored 3+ goals in three straight meetings with New York and four of the last five.

As for Shesterkin, he's obviously one of the best goalies in the NHL, but he's allowed three or more goals in six of his past seven starts. He's also allowed three goals in three straight games against the Stars.

That's enough for me to like Dallas here.

Colorado over 3.5 goals in regulation & OTT-ARI over 5.5 goals (+168 DK)

I love Colorado's team total here against Chicago, especially seeing that Petr Mrazek has been confirmed in net. Mrazek has allowed 4.19 goals per game this season, which partially explains the Blackhawks allowing 3.8 goals per game at home this season.

With some reinforcements back for the Avs, it's easier to trust them again. They've notched 4+ goals in nine of their last 12 games against the Blackhawks, including four straight in Chicago.

I'll pair their team total with an alternate over in Arizona. These two teams have found themselves in some high-scoring games lately, with three straight contests all reaching eight goals. I actually prefer the Coyotes for scoring tonight a tad, but Ottawa should be fine for 3+ as well against what is always a leaky Arizona defense.

Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 SOG (+134 FD)

Let me preface this pick by saying that Mika Zibanejad has failed to go over this number in four straight games and has hit just once in his last seven home games.

Not exactly the recipe for a prop target, but don't worry — I can explain myself. First, Dallas allows 33 shots per game on the road, so I do expect the Rangers to find some shots.

Secondly, Chris Kreider is out tonight, which is going to put an added burden on Zibanejad to create some looks here. He's done it before when Kreider has missed time. 

Over the last 23 games without Kreider, Zibanejad has gone over 3.5 shots 15 times, averaging 4.35 per game. He's also had nice success against the Stars in the past, logging at least four shots in four of his last five meetings, scoring three times.

I like the value, so recent hits be damned.

Brock Nelson over 2.5 SOG (-113 FD)

I'm giving Brock Nelson another chance. I know he burned us the other day with one SOG, but he had seven attempts! The volume is there at home, where Nelson is averaging 7.0 attempts per game in his last five and has gone over 2.5 shots in five of his last seven.

The Islanders should be good for 33+ shots tonight, they average 34.6 at home and Minnesota allows 31.1 per game on the road. The Wild have also had issues with penalties, and Nelson tops the Islanders in PP shots. He covered his shots the last time Minnesota came to town, and I know better days are ahead for the center. I like this price.

JT Compher over 2.5 SOG (+114 FD)

It's not enough to pick on Chicago for goals, we're going to need to root on some shots, and I'm heading down to the second-tier of players on Colorado and loading up JT Compher.

Compher has been steady lately, going over 2.5 shots in six of his last eight games, with both misses ending right at two. On the road he has covered in four of his last six. I'm drawn to the consistency and increase in role experienced by Compher against one of the best shot targets in the league.

Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 SOG (+118 FD)

I certainly want a piece of some Ottawa shots this evening against an Arizona team allowing 35.2 per game at home, and while Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot look good, I'm drawn to Alex DeBrincat at plus-money.

The reasoning is quite simple for me, DeBrincat has crossed this threshold in four of his last five on the road, averaging 6.4 attempts per game. The Coyotes are one of the most generous teams to shots from the wing, I find this to be solid value with the caveat that DeBrincat does not have strong history against them, though he did finish with six shots and a goal the last time he was in Arizona.