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NHL playoff bets: Three plus-money plays for Thursday night

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/11/23

Well, last night beat us down with our puck picks. That wasn't too fun, and there's not much to do but move on. Tonight feels like a potential breath of fresh air, as we have a pair of Game 5s, meaning that teams are returning to where this series began. With two games in this location under our belts, there's some interesting trends to glean from those games compared to Games 3 and 4. We've loaded up three plays based on what we've found.

Stefan Noesen point (+109 CZR)

We had ourselves a fun time with Carolina point props in Game 4, loading up some winners out of Jordan Martinook and Jesper Fast. I definitely like both again this evening, but also want to diversify the looks.

Despite the six goals in Game 4, the Hurricanes didn't get any scoring from their top line or top power play. Considering they found a goal in each of the other three games, I like this buy-low spot for the member of that line that has the best price: our old friend Stefan Noesen.

Noesen hasn't had a point in two games, but he does have a point in both home games vs. New Jersey this round, and in four of five home playoff games. That home success extended into the end of the regular season, as Noesen has a point in seven of his last eight in Carolina.

I like the plus-money here.

Jamie Benn over 2.5 SOG (+135 DK)

Dallas is back at home, and I expect the Stars to pick up their shot pace back in the friendly confines of American Airlines Center.

The Stars finished Games 1 and 2 with 35 and 37 shots respectively, compared to just 26 and 25 shots on goal in their two games in Seattle. That uptick in volume opens up some nice value opportunities, as quite a few shooters for Dallas have tremendous SOG prices.

One I'd like to go back to is Jamie Benn, who finished with three SOG in each of the first two games this series on 10 total attempts. Benn now has gone over 2.5 SOG in six straight at home, and his attempts jump up significantly compared to when he's on road ice. His last five in Dallas, Benn is averaging 5.8 attempts per game. His past five on the road, Benn's attempts dip to just 2.8/game.

I'm willing to take the plunge on a price like this for a guy as consistent as Benn has been at home.

Carolina & Dallas over 2.5 goals scored, including OT (+116 DK)

I think there's merit to playing each of these teams to score over 3.5 goals, both priced at a spot where you could play them straight. This is my attempt to be as conservative as possible to find us a winning bet.

Carolina has scored 4+ goals in all four games this series, and in Games 1 and 2 at home, they scored 11 times. The Canes have found at least three goals in nine of the last 10 meetings with the Devils, and in a game I expect them to close the series out, I'll load them up to score three times.

In the late game, I'm confident the Stars can keep the goals flowing as they return to Dallas. The Stars have scored 4+ goals in three of four against Seattle this series, including both games at home, where their shots also were far more steady.

Dallas now has scored three goals or more in eight of ten meetings with the Kraken.

Again, I think both score four or more tonight, so feel free to look there for some straight plays or a larger parlay. I'm just a simple man, asking for three goals from the two home teams tonight.

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