NHL mid-season Vezina power rankings: Linus Ullmark sits No. 1

Who’s going to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s top goaltender during the 2022-23 NHL season?

Great question. The campaign is halfway over and several goaltenders have emerged as candidates.

Who is trending upward? Who is falling out of the race? My power rankings handicap the field. And while I have my own preferences on how to judge goaltending performance over the course of an NHL season, the GM vote relies heavily on traditional statistics.

Goals saved above expected rankings come from www.moneypuck.com. And with the 2022-23 NHL season just over halfway completed, the Vezina Trophy is still up for grabs.

1. Linus Ullmark (Boston Bruins)

Games Played: 28
Record: 23-2-1
Save Percentage: .936
GAA: 1.92
Shutouts: 2
Goals Saved Above Expected: 23.3
SA/60: 30.0
GS > .900: 22

Ullmark’s numbers are undeniable. But are they sustainable? That’s the big question. Ullmark has been red hot but he has yet to face adversity. And the Bruins have been dominant. 

One thing in Ullmark’s favor: he has outplayed goalie partner Jeremy Swayman by a decent margin. But that gap is closing. 

If Ullmark can stay consistent during the second half of the season and keep piling up wins, he’s a sure bet to be a Vezina Trophy finalist.

2. Connor Hellebuyck (Winnipeg Jets)

Games Played: 33
Record: 22-10-1
Save Percentage: .926
GAA: 2.37
Shutouts: 3
Goals Saved Above Expected: 18.5
SA/60: 31.8
GS > .900: 26

If you ask me, I think Hellebuyck should be the frontrunner for the Vezina Trophy. He’s been instrumental in the Jets’ turnaround this season. But I’m not sure if his statistics will be enough for the NHL general managers. 

Hellebuyck will have to continue to steal games in the Winnipeg crease. His save percentage has been above 90% in 26 of 33 games. 

That type of consistency leads me to believe Hellebuyck will be able to keep up his good play until the end of the season. He does face a heavy workload, but Hellebuyck seems to thrive in that environment.

3. Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders)

Games Played: 34
Record: 15-14-3
Save Percentage: .925
GAA: 2.30
Shutouts: 3
Goals Saved Above Expected: 22.6
SA/60: 30.8
GS > .900: 23

Sorokin’s chances at winning the Vezina Trophy hinge entirely on the Islanders making the Stanley Cup playoffs. And I would argue that if his team does qualify for the postseason, Sorokin deserves very serious consideration. 

He’s allowed only one goal in five of his last 11 games. And with the Islanders struggling to find offense, no goaltender has factored as heavily in his team’s success as Sorokin.

4. Juuse Saros (Nashville Predators)

Games Played: 33
Record: 16-12-5
Save Percentage: .921
GAA: 2.68
Shutouts: 1
Goals Saved Above Expected: 23.1
SA/60: 34.0
GS > .900: 22

Saros had a slow start to the 2022-23 season. But he’s been one of the best goaltenders on earth over the past couple of months. He’s facing 34 shots per game. And Saros has kept the Predators in the battle for a Stanley Cup playoff spot. 

Much like Sorokin, his Vezina Trophy hopes depend on making the postseason. But if the Predators do, it will be completely on Saros’ back. His relative lack of wins will hurt in the voting. 

But his advanced metrics — along with save percentage — will keep the Finn in the running.

5. Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers)

Games Played: 33
Record: 20-7-6
Save Percentage: .918
GAA: 2.43
Shutouts: 1
Goals Saved Above Expected: 14.7
SA/60: 29.5
GS > .900: 19

The reigning Vezina Trophy winner took a while to round back into elite form this season, but he’s since found his stride and racked up 20 wins for the Rangers. 

For Shesterkin to have a chance at repeating, his save percentage will need to increase. And he can’t have as many bad games as the first half of the 2022-23 campaign. 

Shesterkin is trending upward. But the Rangers need to be better in front of him.

6. Jake Oettinger (Dallas Stars)

Games Played: 33
Record: 20-6-4
Save Percentage: .926
GAA: 2.21
Shutouts: 3
Goals Saved Above Expected: 17.6
SA/60: 29.8
GS > .900: 24

Oettinger has been a rock playing in his second full season as the Stars’ No.1 netminder. And all his numbers point towards serious consideration for the Vezina Trophy. 

Oettinger has posted some mega outings but has had more comfortable nights than the goaltenders ahead of him on this list. His consistency shouldn’t be overlooked, however. 

Oettinger is 7-1-1 in his last nine games. And by the end of the season, he might be a finalist.

7. Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay Lightning)

Games Played: 31
Record: 20-10-1
Save Percentage: .918
GAA: 2.45
Shutouts: 0
Goals Saved Above Expected: 13.8
SA/60: 30.0
GS > .900: 20

It’s hard to believe Vasilevskiy has yet to post a shoutout this season. Especially considering the Lightning netminder has won 10 of his last 12 games. 

But a slow start to the 2022-23 season — statistically speaking — has hindered ‘The Big Cat’ when it comes to consideration for the Vezina Trophy. 

At this point, Vasilevskiy is a long shot. But if the Lightning continue to play well and his save percentage starts creeping northwards of .920, anything is possible.

8. Vitek Vanecek (New Jersey Devils)

Games Played: 29
Record: 18-5-2
Save Percentage: .914
GAA: 2.37
Shutouts: 2
Goals Saved Above Expected: 5.8
SA/60: 27.5
GS > .900: 17

It’s hard to get a read on Vanecek, or how GM will view his performance. 

On one hand, he’s provided quality goalkeeping that the Devils needed heading into the 2022-23 NHL season. But he also isn’t facing many shots per game. 

Vanecek’s advanced stats are strong, just like his traditional numbers. But will he garner votes? I think it would take a huge second half for Vanecek to vault upward in the rankings.

9. Martin Jones (Seattle Kraken)

Games Played: 31
Record: 21-5-3
Save Percentage: .895
GAA: 2.76
Shutouts: 3
Goals Saved Above Expected: 1.2
SA/60: 26.4
GS > .900: 16

Jones has won seven games in a row despite playing behind a Seattle team that has been loose defensively this year. But his sub-.900 save percentage will crush any hopes of a Vezina Trophy nomination. 

Right or wrong, that’s how it is. Jones doesn’t face many shots, which will likely keep his numbers from improving. 

But the win column is hard to ignore, especially considering how desperately the Kraken needed better goaltending coming into the 2022-23 season. Jones deserves a ton of credit.

10. Logan Thompson (Vegas Golden Knights)

Games Played: 31
Record: 18-12-1
Save Percentage: .913
GAA: 2.72
Shutouts: 2
Goals Saved Above Expected: -0.9
SA/60: 31.2
GS > .900: 16

Thompson is set to make his first NHL All-Star appearance in less than a month. And he’s been very good at times for the Golden Knights. 

But he’s lost three straight, and his advanced numbers are far off the pace of the other netminders on this list. But NHL GMs tend to base their vote on wins and save percentage. 

Thompson has been the best rookie netminder in the NHL this season. But given how banged up the Golden Knights are with injuries, it might be hard for him to improve his numbers.