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NHL best bets: Shots on goal props for Monday's return to action
Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

NHL best bets: Shots on goal props for Monday's return to action

It's great to have hockey back! The four-day hiatus was great to recharge, and now it's time to attack the ice and get ourselves into a much-needed groove. We have six guys — four plays — to help us get off on the right foot.

Ryan Hartman over 2.5 SOG (+102 FD)

I highlighted this Hartman look earlier today in Bark Bets (go subscribe today!). 

I expect Minnesota to find plenty of shots this evening. Arizona is allowing 35.6 per game at home over their past 10, and they've had their fair share of penalty problems prior to the All-Star break.

Hartman tends to step up on the road. He's gone over 2.5 shots in eight straight when away from Minnesota, averaging 5.6 attempts per game in his last five. He's had some nice games against the Coyotes as well, going for 4+ shots in three of his last four against them. Hartman is on the second power play line, but he's fourth on the team in PP shots over the last 10 games. Seeing that Arizona has been hitting the box more often again has me expecting 3-4 chances for this Wild team, which should open up some opportunities for Hartman to deliver us pucks on net.

Nico Hischier over 2.5 SOG (-130 DK)

While I typically bet to win 1u unless plus-money, I will note here that I am instead just risking 1u on this look. The reason there is that I think I will likely investing more into Hischier to hit 4+ shots in a parlay, and I'd like to cut back here just a tad because of it.

The Devils should have no issue getting their offense into a groove early here at home against Vancouver. The Canucks have allowed 34 shots per game over their last 10 on the road, and Hischier sure loves skating at home. He's gone over 2.5 shots in nine straight in New Jersey, averaging 6.8 attempts per game in his last five.

Last time Vancouver came to town, Hischier had five SOG on nine attempts. The most intriguing part of Hischier's success on home ice has been that he's only finished with three shots on goal once during this streak. He's logged four or more shots in eight of his last nine and five straight. That gives me the confidence to load up his over 2.5 at reasonable odds with quite a bit of confidence.

.5u: Kevin Hayes & Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 SOG (+194 DK)

I think Kevin Hayes looks fantastic this evening. The Flyers as a whole feel primed for a big shot effort against an Islanders team that has allowed 36 shots per game in their last 10 road games. Philly is averaging nearly 35 shots on goal per game at home lately, wonderful to see in a matchup like this.

Hayes is averaging 7.3 attempts per game in his last 10 home games, going over 2.5 shots eight times during that stretch. He has hit in three straight against the Islanders, piling up 12 SOG in those games.

We'll target the other New York team as well and back Tyler Toffoli against the Rangers. Toffoli has gone over 2.5 shots in eight straight games and seven of his past eight on the road. Against the Rangers, Toffoli has 15 SOG in his last three, going for 4+ each time. Calgary has averaged 38.5 shots per game in their last 10 on the road, which makes them relatively matchup proof despite a slightly tighter opponent like the Rangers.

.5u: Miro Heiskanen & Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 SOG (+178 DK)

Heiskanen's inclusion in our night is relatively simple. Anaheim has allowed the most shots per game to defensemen this season, and Heiskanen has four SOG in both meetings with the Ducks this year.

No one on Dallas has been consistent at their SOG line lately, but Heiskanen's attempts remain one of the higher totals on the team.

We double dip with Minnesota and load up Eriksson Ek. He's gone over 2.5 shots in four of his last five against Arizona and has been leading the Wild power play over the last 10 games. In the five games before the All-Star break, Eriksson Ek went for 4+ shots four times, averaging 4.6 SOG/game on 7.0 attempts. I like that to continue in a soft matchup.

Good luck tonight, let's start this week right!

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