NHL best bets: Four plays for Monday 3/6

The points have accompanied the shots, with five in his last three home games. He has three points in three games against the Oilers, and with an over/under up at 7.5, I'm looking to grab any value I can on those props.

Kyle Connor 3+ shots & Alex DeBrincat point (+114 FD)

This is a relatively simple combination, and to see it come in at plus-money is good enough for me. Winnipeg should most definitely be able to find themselves some shots.

San Jose is allowing over 33 shots per game on the road over their last 10, and after trading players like Timo Meier and Mikey Eyssimont it's likely going to become even harder for the Sharks to control offensive possession.

So, couple that with a penalty issue out of San Jose, and I'd like a share of someone on Winnipeg shooting the puck. Perhaps I'm being too conservative, but I'm rolling with Kyle Connor but watered down to 3+ shots instead of line tonight at 3.5.

I don't hate him at the 3.5 number, I just really love him down at 2.5. Connor leads the Jets in power play shooting and has gone for three or more SOG in seven straight home games. On the year, he gets to three at a 72% clip on home ice. Against the Sharks, Connor has 3+ shots in six of his last seven, and has 4+ in three of his last four.

His dance partner tonight is Alex DeBrincat to grab a point in his first game back in Chicago. It's a simple narrative, but Ottawa should dominate the Blackhawks, and you have to believe DeBrincat would like to be involved in a goal against his former team.

He has a point in five straight games and grabbed an assist vs. Chicago back in February.

Darnell Nurse 3+ shots (+152 FD)

We need to head back to that Edmonton-Buffalo game and grab us an Oilers shooter, and I absolutely love the value we have with Darnell Nurse at his alternate SOG line.

Nurse has gone for 3+ shots in six of his last eight on the road and has loved facing Buffalo. In his last three against the Sabres, Nurse has finished with shot totals of three, five and seven. He has gone over 2.5 in four of his last five against them, and seeing as Buffalo is allowing the third-most shots to defensemen over the last 10 games, I'm all over Nurse at this price.

I don't think you can go wrong in this game, and similarly to Cozens, I could see some merit to loading up Nurse to get a point as his road shot consistency has aided a steady dose of points.