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New York Islanders captain Anders Lee. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

NHL best bets: Canadiens vs. Islanders odds, preview, prediction for Thursday 4/11

Originally posted on Action Network | By Greg Liodice | Last updated 4/11/24

Here's everything you need to know about the Montreal Canadiens vs. New York Islanders on Thursday, April 11 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.

Montreal is fresh off a dominating 9-3 win against the Flyers on Tuesday, but it hasn't always been peaches and cream. Prior to the win, it was in the middle of a funk and lost three in a row. Regardless, the Canadiens are preparing for the draft and offseason as they’re eliminated from the playoff hunt.

If there was ever a time to get hot, it’s now. The Islanders have won five in a row, including a 4-2 win against the Rangers. Not only that, but they’re also in the middle of a heated playoff race with four other teams.

Canadiens vs. Islanders Odds

Thursday, April 11, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Canadiens Odds	+180
Islanders Odds	-220
Over / Under	5.5 -128 / +104

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Montreal Canadiens

What a night Tuesday was for second-year player Juraj Slafkovsky, who netted his first career hat trick. Captain Nick Suzuki has six points in his past five games, and Cole Caufield is on a five-game point streak. Additionally, Michael Matheson has been on a tear with 11 points in his past seven games.

Apart from Tuesday, the Canadiens have been pretty terrible at 5-on-5 play. Since March 25, they’ve ranked 28th in expected goals with a 42.89 xGF%. Defensively, they’re just as bad with a fourth-worst 4.01 xGA/60.

While Montreal’s penalty kill over the past 10 games has been elite at 85%, the power play is a dumpster fire at a 11.5% clip.

Sam Montembeault and Cayden Primeau have shared responsibilities in Montreal’s crease, but I think Montembeault will get the nod. Apart from the disaster he had on Saturday, he’s really been strong as of late. He’s playing to a .904 SV% and a 3.8 goals saved above expected (GSAx).

New York Islanders

The Islanders are on a decent run right now, and Mathew Barzal is a big part of it with a five-game point streak. Noah Dobson is also having a career-high season with 70 points, and Bo Horvat has goals in four of his past five games. Speaking of goals, Kyle Palmieri has been a goal scoring wizard in three straight.

Even amidst this five-game streak, this team could still be better 5-on-5. The Islanders are 20th with a 50.22 xGF% and 15th with a 3.17 xGA/60.

New York’s special teams have been a disaster all season, and this 10-game stretch is no exception. It’s scored on the power play 11% of the time, and the penalty kill is at 73.7%.

I genuinely don’t know what happens in net tonight. Ilya Sorokin has had a very down year and Semyon Varlamov has been a catalyst for this run, so perhaps we'll see him. He’s playing to a .936 SV% in his past six starts and has 8.7 GSAx.

Canadiens vs. Islanders

Betting Pick & Prediction

The total for this game is listed at 5.5, and I think this has the potential to go over. With odds at -128, the books also agree. The fact is, Montreal often finds itself in high scoring games.

New York, on the other hand, can be a mixed bag. However, given the weapons on this team, and how well it’s playing as of late, I can see the Islanders lighting up an already struggling Canadiens’ defense.