Montreal Canadiens’ Worst-Case Scenarios in 2023-24

If he does get a good long look in the top six, it would be even more disappointing if we don’t see the progression the Canadiens are hoping for. He doesn’t have to break out into a superstar by any means yet, but showing good habits and strong play all over the ice would be a good start. He only managed four goals and 10 points in 39 games last season, but he did average just over 12 minutes a game.

Canadiens Miss Playoffs, Don’t Get a High Draft Pick

There’s nothing worse than being stuck in no man’s land – which is somewhere between missing the playoffs and finishing at the very bottom of the league – when a team doesn’t have a chance to play for the Stanley Cup and nor do they have a good chance at winning a lottery pick. The Canadiens are a great example of anything being possible in the playoffs and not counting any team out. They made it to the Stanley Cup Final from having the least amount of points by any playoff team in 2020-21.

Last season, the Canadiens had a good chance at a lottery pick and still got a very good young player in defenseman David Reinbacher at fifth overall. Sixteen teams miss the playoffs, so drafting between 10th and 16th isn’t the best for an organization that is trying to become competitive quickly. If the Canadiens find themselves finishing in no man’s land and are unable to draft a good player, it will be an unfortunate ending to the 2023-24 season.

Newhook Can’t Seize Top-6 Role

Alex Newhook was given a fair shot to become the number two center for the Colorado Avalanche and build a future there. That didn’t work out, and although the Avalanche seem to have given up on him early – he’s only 22 – they are in win-now mode and don’t have time to waste on an unproductive player, no matter his age (from “Why Alex Newhook could be a better fit with Canadiens than he was with Avalanche”, The Athletic, July 12, 2023).

Montreal has the time and the space, so this is why we find Newhook on the Canadiens, whose top-six isn’t as competitive, and the team is not ready to make the playoffs yet. There is a spot in the top six for the center/winger to start the season, but he will have to work hard to keep it. The worst-case scenario would be that he struggles again and can’t hold down a spot at the top of the lineup, whether it’s down the middle or on the wing with a little less responsibility. He is still only 22 years old but took a step back last season from his rookie season. We’ll see if he improves in what seems to be a better situation for him.

Injuries Take Hold of the Canadiens Again

If the Canadiens miss the playoffs, that would be fine and expected, but what would really hurt them is if they experience long drawn-out injuries again. Sure, young players who wouldn’t normally get a chance to play in the NHL will get a shot, but many of them aren’t in the organization’s future plans.

Last season, Cole Caufield and Michael Matheson suffered major injuries just as they were breaking out. It might not have helped get the Canadiens into the playoffs last season if both didn’t miss half of the games, but it still wasted a good deal of time for both key players. Caufield was on pace for 46 goals, and the Canadiens haven’t had many prolific goal-scorers in the past 30 years. On a team without a clear-cut number-one defenseman, Matheson was proving to be that player. He logged the most minutes, played on special teams, and even recorded 34 points in 48 games.

More so than Caufield and Matheson, Slafkovsky staying healthy this season is key to his early development. Sean Monahan, on the other hand, suffered an injury at a very bad time. He was having a bounce-back campaign until it was cut very short. Not only did this impact the team overall as they were playing well with Monahan in the lineup, the veteran, on a one-year deal at the time, wasn’t able to be moved at the trade deadline for assets. Montreal will be trying to move him again this season in the hopes he can have a similarly productive season and get the team something in return.

Then there is Brendan Gallagher. At this point in his career, he is fading but is still paid a significant amount of money. He hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2018-19, and the Canadiens need him healthy and playing the type of game that has made him so successful. If he continues to miss big chunks of time, the hope that he can stay healthy and get back to form will be nearly lost. The Canadiens are stuck with his contract either way.

Key Canadiens Take Step Back

Despite the injuries, some Canadiens had promising starts or solid campaigns overall, including Caufield, Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach, Matheson, and Sam Montembeault. The team is expected to be better this season, even if it is only by a little bit, and because there should be much less injuries. The worst-case scenario would be if all these players take a step back this season.

Caufield has become a very good goal-scorer since Martin St. Louis took over as head coach. He needs to continue to do that. The team needs a pure goal-scorer for when they are competing for a playoff spot and the Stanley Cup again in the future. Despite a tough season in 2022-23 and the lack of top-end support on the wing, Suzuki still managed to improve offensively and is very solid at both ends of the ice. If he were to take a step back in 2023-24, with the added support, it would be worrisome.

Dach has started to realize some of that third-overall-pick potential that the Chicago Blackhawks gave up on far too early. He is capable of becoming the long-term solution as the second-line center or as a top-six right winger, playing at a 20-goal and 53-point pace last season.

There isn’t an heir to the number one defensive job yet, so that will fall on Matheson again. With such a young defensive group, he will be leaned on a lot. He had a very strong and surprising start offensively for the Canadiens last season, but it will be disappointing if he can’t hit 45-plus points this season, at the very least.

Montembeault assumed the starting job, and even though Jake Allen likely isn’t going anywhere this season, he’ll back up the younger and better option in net. Despite a very inexperienced defence and team in general, Montembeault still finished with a .901 save percentage and a .538 quality start percentage. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but it was a solid 2022-23 campaign. The worst-case scenario would be if Cayden Primeau is waived and claimed, and then Montembeault struggles compared to last season with a healthier team in front of him. This would likely change the Canadiens’ mind about re-signing him in the offseason, and they would be hard-pressed to find adequate goaltending.

While all of these worst-case scenarios could happen, they aren’t likely. Rarely does everything that can go wrong actually go wrong. However, the hope – for fans and the organization – is that none of these come true this season.