Islanders’ Dobson Faces Tough Road To The Norris Trophy

Dobson not only leads an Islanders’ defense that has been ravaged by injuries but he’s played a pivotal role in the team’s surge to the top of the standings. The Islanders at 13-7-7 are in second place in the Metropolitan Division and have only lost one of their last five games with Dobson’s impact allowing them to look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

His remarkable play has put him in the Norris Trophy conversation, something that was a far-fetched idea before the season started. At this rate, he’ll end the season as a finalist and possibly win the award, something that has only happened once in Islanders’ history, with Dennis Potvin winning in 1979. That said, Dobson has a lot more obstacles standing in his way compared to Potvin, and a path will be difficult for him to end the season with the Norris.

The Competition Has Never Been Tougher

Around the league, there’s no shortage of elite young two-way defensemen. It’s hard to select the few who are head and shoulders above the rest, and it makes voting for the award all the more difficult, with a lot of skaters putting together impressive seasons.

Cale Makar is the gold standard, winning the Norris Trophy and leading the Colorado Avalanche to the Cup title in 2022. This season has been no different for him, as he has eight goals and 28 assists while contributing 2.1 defensive point shares to lead the Avalanche, who have the best record in the Central Division.

Quinn Hughes has finally put himself on the map on a Vancouver Canucks team that is having an exceptional season. The Canucks have never had a Norris Trophy winner, but with nine goals, a league-leading 30 assists, and 2.8 defensive point shares, he’s in the driver’s seat to take home the award.

There are also a handful of defensemen who will make a strong case as the season progresses. Adam Fox battled injuries at the beginning of the season, but the New York Rangers are having a Presidents’ Trophy-caliber season, and he’ll remain a key part of the team’s success. Charlie McAvoy is putting together another great season with the Boston Bruins and could finally leap into the award conversation. Erik Karlsson won the Norris trophy last season, and since being traded this offseason , he’s been instrumental to the Pittsburgh Penguins’ success. Lastly, there are dark horse candidates like Brayden McNabb, who has emerged as the Vegas Golden Knights top defenseman, especially on the defensive end of the ice.

Dobson must stand out in a league full of standouts. He’s having a great season, but it will be hard for him to differentiate himself from the other elite players, leading to the next issue at hand.

Dobson’s Unquantifiable Value

Here’s a question for Islanders fans who watch Dobson closely. What is his best attribute or the thing that stands out most in his play?

A good argument can be made for his passing, which has directly resulted in his team-leading 22 assists, including a three-assist game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, allowing the Islanders to win the game 4-3 in overtime. Likewise, his shot and playmaking ability from the point has helped turn the power play into a strength. His speed and puck-handling are far and beyond the best on the defense. Then there’s his skill on the defensive end of the ice, something he struggled with early on in his career but has mastered to become one of the league’s elite defensemen.

The best and worst part about Dobson is that he doesn’t do anything particularly great. Instead, he does a lot of the small things well, and it adds up to make a difference. Moreover, his hockey sense and knowledge of the game have drastically improved, but at the same time, he’s rarely seen making a highlight play since he’s in the right position. The cliche in sports is that some players are so good they make plays look effortless, and for Dobson, a lot of his big moments have felt that way.

This leaves both basic and advanced stats as an incomplete sample size for Dobson. Similarly, he doesn’t stand out on the ice the way Makar and Hughes do. When voters are deciding between the finalists, it’s easier for them to select a defenseman who has provided memorable moments, something Dobson has brought to the Islanders, at least not yet.

The Islanders Might Not Help His Case

An issue that could hurt Dobson in a close vote is where the Islanders finish record-wise at the end of the season. Individual players shouldn’t lose out on awards based on team performance, but it’s a reality the Islanders know all too well. Last season, Ilya Sorokin was a Vezina Trophy finalist and had a strong argument to win the award but came up short with Linus Ullmark, who played a significant role in the Bruins’ Presidents’ Trophy season, winning it.

The Islanders are near the top of the Eastern Conference, at the moment, but a few weeks ago, they looked like a team that wasn’t going to make the playoffs. They are projected to finish the season as a borderline playoff team just like they did last season, and it leaves Dobson with a less-convincing argument. On top of that, the defensive unit and the supporting cast won’t set him up for success. Makar has Devon Toews as his pair, allowing him to play with more freedom and thus create more scoring chances. Hughes often plays alongside Filip Hronek, who was acquired last season and has unlocked the 24-year-olds skill sets. Dobson has Alexander Romanov to help him out, but with the Islanders dealing with injuries at the blue line, there isn’t a strong supporting cast.

Karlsson was an outlier, as he won the Norris on a team that was going nowhere. It took a career year to convince the voters as he scored 25 goals and 76 assists while the San Jose Sharks went 22-44-16 to finish near the bottom of the Pacific Division. More often than not, the trophy is given to a player, who is on a great season with the idea that they led them and helped them have as good a season as they did.

If the finalists are Dobson, Hughes, and Makar, and the Avalanche and Canucks are two of the top teams in the Western Conference, the award won’t go to the Islanders’ top defenseman. Dobson would likely finish third in the voting unless he’s heads and shoulders above the other two finalists.

Islanders Goaltending Creates An Interesting Roadblock

Sorokin has struggled to begin this season, which has been disappointing considering he signed an eight-year extension this offseason and is expected to carry the Islanders for years to come. However, the Islanders’ goaltending unit remains a strength even in a season where the team is allowing 3.15 goals per game. The assumption is that Sorokin will turn his season around and return to the 2022-23 form that made him one of the best in the NHL, and with that, the team will look better defensively. If that happens, it will be hard to argue that Dobson played a big role in keeping games low-scoring and shutting down opponents.

To phrase this issue differently, if Sorokin is a Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender and Dobson is a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman, both players will take away votes from one another. It will be difficult to point to one player as the leader of the Islanders’ strong season, and thus, neither will end up winning an award.

What Dobson Needs To Happen To Win The Norris Trophy

The most important thing for Dobson, and the most obvious, is for him to play at a high level for the rest of the season. He’s on pace for a career year and could score 15 goals and 60 assists, but he must show that he is the one leading the Islanders. On a team that is dealing with injuries, especially on the defense, he can stand out and help them win games throughout the season to make a case to win the award.

There also has to be a Norris Trophy single-game performance or a moment for Dobson. Makar had plenty of moments in his 2021-22 season (notably his overtime-winner against the Chicago Blackhawks), and Karlsson had a hat trick early on last season that put everyone on notice. A game-winning goal, a highlight play, or a game where Dobson contributed plenty of goals and assists will put him on the map.

Lastly, the Islanders can’t have their season fall apart. On the contrary, a good season where they finish near the top of the Metropolitan Division and the Eastern Conference will help Dobson’s cause and possibly make him the frontrunner.