Is it worth buying high on Blackhawks’ Jake McCabe at the trade deadline?

With less than five weeks until the NHL’s trade deadline on March 3, let's focus on Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Jake McCabe.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 32 days

Jake McCabe
Left Defense, Chicago Blackhawks
Shoots: Left
Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 204 lbs.
Cap Hit: $4 million
Term: Two seasons remaining
Clauses: Seven-team ‘no-trade’ list
Stats: 45 GP, two goals, 12 assists, 14 points, 19:20 avg TOI
Career: 10th season (Buffalo, Chicago) 473 GP, 24 goals, 113 points, 19:26 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Defensive Defenseman, third pair / first unit penalty kill

McCabe is a steady, reliable and predictable defender when healthy, which he has been for the bulk of his tenure in Chicago. Ideally, on a championship-caliber roster, he will slot into the third pair and be a significant contributor to the penalty kill.

Scouting Report

McCabe is like an easy bake oven for a coaching staff, you can set it and forget it – the classic steady defenseman. No muss, no fuss. He is rarely in trouble, but he also isn’t going to ‘wow’ you in any one area of the game. His competition and hockey sense are above average and there is no doubt he is willing to lay it on the line for his team. McCabe’s mobility is slightly below average, but he makes up for it with his defensive instincts and willingness to battle. He rarely hesitates in his own zone, finishes his checks, and makes life harder for the opposition.

His puck play is simple. One of his best attributes is his sense of self. He knows who he is and limits mistakes by not trying to do too much. McCabe’s underlying numbers are solid for never having played on a good team at the NHL level. Because of that, if the acquiring team can stomach his injury risk, they may unlock a solid contributor for the next couple of seasons.

Additionally, the Blackhawks appear to be willing to retain up to half of McCabe’s contract, which would knock him down to just $2 million per season – taking his cost certainty to the next level.

Buyer Beware

Mobility is the one area of weakness in McCabe’s game. It leaves a lot to be desired. His first three strides are below average, which limits his ability to consistently close on attackers and stop them in their tracks – particularly the more creative players. He makes up for a lot of that with his hockey IQ, anticipating lanes and attacking dangerous spaces prior to plays developing. His penalty differential is mostly even throughout his career, which means he can and does get to where he needs to go more often than not.

Although his puck play is simple and he does a nice job limiting mistakes, he will cough up pucks under pressure because he cannot escape using his feet.

The biggest knock on McCabe has been something mostly out of his control – his injury history. He has missed 118 games in his NHL career but appears to have put some of that to rest in Chicago, with 75 games played last season and another 45 this year. However, the acquiring team is not just taking him on for the stretch run, but two more years beyond that. They’d have to be comfortable believing McCabe is going to continue to play meaningful minutes beyond his 30th birthday.

Finally, McCabe has never appeared in a Stanley Cup playoff game. He left the rebuilding Sabres to sign with the Blackhawks as part of their retooling, but that quickly turned into a tear-it-down rebuild. That makes it incredibly difficult to predict or project how McCabe will fare in the spotlight of the postseason.

Potential Fits

• Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs will need to replace Jake Muzzin and what he brought to the lineup. While McCabe won’t be a replica at the offensive end, he’d certainly help fill the defensive void, and slide right in next to a guy like T.J. Brodie who can move the puck. We also know the Maple Leafs value term over rentals and if Chicago retains, McCabe at $2 million is a home run. Six of the seven Canadian teams are on McCabe’s seven-team ‘no-trade’ list and the Maple Leafs are not one of them.
• Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers are in desperate need of help that keeps the puck away from their end of the ice. McCabe seems like a perfect fit in Edmonton, becoming a defensive anchor on a team lacking just that. They’d have to convince him to waive his ‘no-trade’ to come to Oil Country.
• Los Angeles Kings: The Kings have expressed interest in McCabe. They currently have a surplus on defense and Jordan Spence waiting in the wings in AHL Ontario. One of those eight defensemen would probably need to head elsewhere first, such as Sean Walker or Matt Roy. What McCabe brings over those guys is more predictability and a little more bite.

Comparable Trade Returns

July 23, 2021
To Philadelphia: Rasmus Ristolainen
To Buffalo: Robert Hagg, 2021 first-round Pick (Isak Rosen), 2023 second-round Pick

Feb. 24, 2020
To Carolina: Brady Skjei
To NY Rangers: 2020 1st Round Pick (Hendrix Lapierre)

The list of defensemen traded in recent years with term on their contract is small. Neither one of these examples is a true direct comparison. Ristolainen was a bigger name then and he had one year remaining on his deal, not two like McCabe. And then Skjei had a whopping four years remaining when New York decided to dump his contract as part of their rebuild.

Erik Gudbranson was traded to Pittsburgh in 2019 with two years remaining on his deal at $4 million, but he was swapped for Tanner Pearson, and Chicago likely doesn’t have interest in a player-for-player deal.

Even among forwards, the only two recent comps with term in that dollar range are Tyler Toffoli to the Flames (for a first, a fifth, Emil Heineman and Tyler Pitlick) and Vincent Trocheck to Carolina (for Erik Haula, Lucas Wallmark, Chase Priskie and Eetu Luostarinen). But they aren’t great comps because term and dollars for forwards are vastly different than defense.

Summary

In McCabe, a contending team in ‘win-now’ mode will get a player that will certainly help given his hockey intelligence and competition. His injury history looms large. But the Chicago Blackhawks would be selling high on a player who has rounded into pre-injury form. If the Blackhawks are retaining half on McCabe, his return absolutely starts with a first-round pick in a deal, not all that dissimilar to the comps above.