In trading early, Armstrong gains favorable returns instead of playing waiting game

Fans in general are creatures of their own habit, reacting with instant emotion when things aren't going their way. And that's natural.

So when the Blues made trades involving three key cogs that helped them win a Stanley Cup in 2019 (Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly and Ivan Barbashev), and deal a player that was quickly becoming a fan favorite (Noel Acciari) and another that was building his NHL resume (Niko Mikkola), it was the signal that 2022-23 was not what people thought it would be following up on a 109-point season.

And some suggested that Armstrong sold too early and sold too lightly.

Judging after the fact now of how trade deadline day went on Friday, it's easy to see that Armstrong's ability to sell early paid off quite nicely and sets up the Blues with some nice assets should they want to use them at the NHL Draft or use them as trade chips.

On Feb. 9, Armstrong netted a first-round pick this year, forward Sammy Blais, a defensive prospect for depth at the AHL in Hunter Skinner and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick that can become a third from the New York Rangers for Tarasenko and Mikkola; on Feb. 17, he was able to land another first-round pick this year, prospect Mikhail Abramov, forward Adam Gaudette, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 second-round pick from the Toronto Maple Leafs for O'Reilly and Acciari before landing 2021 first-round pick, prospect Zach Dean from the Vegas Golden Knights on Feb. 26 for Barbashev.

When you get to American Thanksgiving and you look where you're at, you start to chart out as I was telling people, you chart up if you get to this point, I make three columns: what is an excellent trade for St. Louis? What is a trade we can live with? And what is a trade we'll be disappointed in, in the net return," Armstrong said. "And then you start to make phone calls. Phone calls are made all year long. If we don't turn around, this is what's going to happen. If we do turn it around, disregard this last call. You want people to know what you're serious about doing.

"It really picked up steam the week before I went to Europe (on a scouting trip in late January). And when I was in Europe, I must have made 60 phone calls. Just on the phone all the time telling people where we were at knowing we top players, top playoff-proven players that were going to become available and then I said I just went back to that column and when we felt we were getting something we were really comfortable with, we were going to act. When we got that, we did act. It's a fine line and we talk about it a lot, another dumb analogy: pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. We didn't want to wait too long and end up with nothing. So when we found something that we were comfortable with, we acted."

The Blues acted while others didn't, either act quickly enough, or they simply waited too long.

Take the Chicago Blackhawks, for example, who perhaps waited too long to move three-time Cup winner Patrick Kane, who ultimately got his wish and also joined the Rangers and pal Artemi Panarin, but it seems inexplicable that Chicago couldn't get a guaranteed first-round pick for the 34-year-old who still has game left.

Maybe the Blackhawks had their hands tied allowing Kane to make the decision of whether he wanted to leave or not, but in waiting to move Kane until Feb. 28 and Chicago's options likely reduced, they were backed into a corner a bit. It almost seemed certain that Kane would net the Blackhawks at least a first-round pick, and they very well could get one if New York reaches the Eastern Conference Final, the 2024 second-rounder turns into a first.

And how about the Philadelphia Flyers, who waited until the last possible moment to try and move James van Riemsdyk and/or Justin Braun, and didn't move either in the end and a rebuilding team will now have no assets for two players that are certain to leave via free agency.

Just think if the Blackhawks and Rangers had consummated their deal first before the Blues and Rangers did, there was no way the Blues would have netted that return, and with Tarasenko holding a full no-trade clause, Armstrong's options were limited in where he could deal the 31-year-old, who had already turned down opportunities to move elsewhere prior to this season.

"You never know what everyone else is doing, so I'm a real believer that if you're happy, just do what you've got to do," Armstrong said. "I did feel that if we acted early and we undersold, it would have been marginally by a small percentage. It's not on how people judge, it's what we think we did.

"I'm happy for our staff that we have first-round picks that they can go to this year's draft with. I'm happy we have a couple thirds. We have picks next year. We're excited we were able to bring in one-year players. I think, and I'm not minimizing how bad this is, like I don't want our fans to think that we're happy that we had to go through this, but when it was cast, I think our staff, I'm proud of the guys that I work with, our pro scouts, our management staff on coming up with creative ideas that we can make the best out of a bad situation."

Along with picking up on waivers Kasperi Kapanen, who has one more year remaining at $3.2 million, and re-signing Blais to a one-year, $1 million contract, Armstrong took on another gamble that could pay off well, acquiring the talented Jakub Vrana from the Detroit Red Wings on Friday for what amounted to be a 2022 free-agent signee Dylan McLaughlin and a seventh-round pick in 2025.

It's a low-risk move in the sense that the Blues are only paying half of Vrana's remaining $5.25 million average annual value contract ($2.625 million) through next season, a player that scored 24 and 25 goals in back to back seasons for the Washington Capitals in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

Bringing in these players allows the Blues some time to see what they have, whether they have something to prove, and if it expedites the process in being not only competitive again but back to where they want to be, and and it allows for some of the younger talent in the organization to be that much closer to being foundation pieces instead of just prospects.

"We understand there's a process you need to go through when you want to ... it's not rebuild, retool, I'm not sure," Armstrong said. "I know what we're doing. It's not something that happens over one summer. It happens over a couple of years, but you want to continue to build a foundation, and these players are going to help us build that foundation as we wait on [Jimmy] Snuggerud, as we wait on [Zach] Bolduc, as we wait on Jake Neighbours to grab a bigger part of our team, Dean, some of these picks we have this year, whether we use those picks, whether we acquire NHL-caliber players now, it does open it up."

What Armstrong wasn't going to do: deal the Blues' first-round pick. They will go to Nashville at the draft this year with three of them and perhaps trade two of them but not their own.

"That wasn't going anywhere," Armstrong said. "Yeah, that pick, it's the first time in my manager career I've been in this situation where I've been in this situation to pick that high. It's something that you like to have, you just hate to earn it."