Coyotes’ Dumba Continuing Regression with Early Season Slump

What started out as a solid showing in the team’s season-opening, four-game road trip has quickly turned sour. The former player the Coyotes had hoped for looks like a disaster instead. Just 14 games in, not even a quarter of the way through the season, and the Coyotes are scratching their heads.

Struggles on The Back End

Dumba’s recent slump has been mirrored by poor defensive positioning and countless mistakes with the puck. Those numbers are reflected in his minus-5 plus/minus rating, tied for worst on the team with Nick Schmaltz. His on-ice goal differential and on-ice expected goal differential numbers aren’t any better, sitting last amongst Coyote skaters with a minus-16 goal differential and minus-7.9 expected goal differential. 

When Dumba’s on the ice, the Coyotes have one of their lowest on-ice expected goals percentages of 38.5 percent, compared to 57.3 percent when he’s off the ice, meaning the Coyotes control the puck and benefit more with him being on the bench. His relative expected goals percentage is minus-18.8 percent, only slightly better than Alex Kerfoot who sits last in that category. What has killed him the most as of recently is his turnovers, especially in the defensive zone, where he’s given it away six times.

Offensive Struggles

As much as Dumba has struggled on the back end, he’s not exactly made up for it on the offensive side of the puck either. He’s recorded just two points through 14 games, and is shooting a mere 4.8 percent. He’s registering a 0.42 points per 60 minutes average, a rather poor output for a guy the Coyotes were so high on. He’s missing the net about as much as he’s hitting it, with 12 shots missed compared to 21 on goal, all of which has come on 44 shot attempts. His 36.4 percent of unblocked shots that missed the net is alarming in its own right.

Add in his 16 penalty minutes, and minus-6 penalty minute differential alongside the struggles of his usual defensive partner Troy Stecher and you get a guy that’s been pretty lackluster on both sides of the puck. For clarification, the Coyotes knew the Dumba they were getting this offseason wasn’t going to be the same as 2017-18 Dumba who recorded 50 points with the Wild. That player dwindled away over time thanks to injuries. Nevertheless, to see his game take this much of a downward spiral in so many different categories is alarming considering Arizona lacks a strong defensive group outside of J.J. Moser and Sean Durzi.

Positive Impressions

While his time in the valley has faced more criticism than praise in just the first few weeks of the season, Dumba has made some positive impressions. First and foremost, he’s been a vocal leader on and off the ice. At the same time, he can get under the opponents’ skin, having drawn 12 penalty minutes this season. While he’s struggled to get the puck out of his zone, he’s been an effective shot blocker, blocking 20 shots so far this year, or roughly 4.19 shots per 60 minutes.

As stated from the get go, the Coyotes weren’t expecting him to come in and put 50-60 points up at this stage of his career. Especially not after 22, 24, 21, 27, and 14-point seasons over the past five years. Those days have been gone. What Armstrong and company had hoped for was a glimpse of that former player, one who could potentially rejuvenate his career in the desert, much like Gostisbehere or Devan Dubnyk years back. The Coyotes have 68 games left in their 2023-24 season, and there’s still time for Dumba to turn it around, but the clock is ticking and he’s only going to continue to spiral downward until then.