Analyzing the Arizona Coyotes' wild summer

Last season, Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong suggested that he felt his team was still a few years away from truly getting to a point of contention. However, the Coyotes made several moves this summer to improve their team in the short term. While it probably won’t be enough to get them into the playoff picture, these moves shouldn’t have them in the discussion for 32nd in the NHL either.

Draft

1-6: D Dmitri Simashev, Yaroslavl (MHL)
1-12: F Daniil But, Yaroslavl (MHL)
2-38: G Michael Hrabal, Omaha (USHL)
3-70: F Jonathan Castagna, St. Andrew’s (CAHS)
3-72: F Noel Nordh, Brynas (Sweden U20)
3-81: F Tanner Ludtke, Lincoln (USHL)
3-88: F Vadim Moroz, Minsk (KHL)
4-102: D Terrell Goldsmith, Prince Albert (WHL)
5-134: G Melker Thelin, Bjorkloven (Sweden U20)
5-160: D Justin Kipkie, Victoria (WHL)
6-162: F Samu Bau, Ilves (Liiga)
6-166: G Carsen Musser, USA U-18 (NTDP)

The Coyotes made a pair of selections that many would qualify as perceived reaches with their first two selections. Simashev is a tall, strong-skating blueliner who hasn’t really had much of a chance to show his offensive upside just yet. Arizona is hoping that he’ll become a top-half option in time but they’ll have to wait at least two years to bring him over. But, meanwhile, was one of the tallest forwards in the draft and showed a nice scoring touch at the MHL level in Russia. He isn’t a true power forward, however, as he isn’t particularly physical overseas. Nonetheless, there’s a profile there that makes him an intriguing top-six option down the road but one that went 10-15 spots earlier than most rankings had him.

On the flip side, their lone second-round selection is someone who slid a bit more than most expected. Hrabal, one of the tallest goalies in the draft, was viewed as a possible first-round selection but in the end, he wasn’t even the first netminder off the board. Hrabal did relatively well in his first season in North America in the USHL and is going the college route and thus is several years away from being a possible option for the Coyotes.

Trade acquisitions

D Sean Durzi (from Los Angeles)

Durzi has shown considerable promise offensively in his first two NHL seasons and was second on the Kings in points by a blueliner last season. However, their cap situation and strong right-side depth made him the odd man out. Durzi goes from being in a more limited role with Los Angeles to one where he should play a much bigger role. Considering he’s heading into the final year of his bridge deal and has arbitration eligibility for the first time next summer, the timing of this move could work out quite well for the 24-year-old.

Key UFA signings

F Nick Bjugstad (two years, $2.1M)
D Travis Dermott (one year, $800K)*
D Matt Dumba (one year, $3.9M)
F Alexander Kerfoot (two years, $7M)
D Troy Stecher (one year, $1.1M)
F Jason Zucker (one year, $5.3M)

*-denotes two-way contract

Zucker’s addition raised some eyebrows as they weren’t expected to be shopping in the higher end of the UFA pool up front. However, it’s worth noting that several players didn’t get the type of interest they were hoping for, and the 31-year-old wasted little time pivoting toward a pillow contract instead. Zucker should be able to land a top-six role, which could give him a shot at another 25-goal campaign. In a perfect world for him, another performance like last year could boost his value in what he (like many others) hopes will be a more favorable market next summer. Meanwhile, in a perfect world for the Coyotes, Zucker becomes one of the more prominent rental players to move closer to the trade deadline.

Kerfoot feels like a transition player for the Coyotes. When they signed him, they likely eyed him on the second line (before Logan Cooley had a change of heart and decided to turn pro). Now, he might be a better fit on the third line. Either way, he’s the type of player that can fill a few different roles in a lineup while allowing prospects more time to develop. Bjugstad returns after being flipped at the deadline. He went to the Coyotes last summer to rebuild his value and did just that, scoring more goals last season than he did in the previous three combined. He should give them a bit more scoring punch in their bottom six compared to the group that finished up the year. Dermott missed most of last season due to continuing concussion symptoms, but with 279 career NHL appearances under his belt, he could push for a full-time spot on the roster.

Dumba is another player who simply didn’t have as strong of a market as he hoped for. Unlike Zucker, who took his one-year deal on the first day of free agency, Dumba opted to wait it out but still had to take a one-year pact himself. After a tough year with Minnesota, the 29-year-old should get plenty of opportunities to play a bigger role, see some power play time, and try to improve his value for next summer. Meanwhile, the Coyotes likely have another strong trade-deadline asset. Stecher also returns after being flipped at the deadline and is likely to reprise his role on the third pairing.

Key RFA re-signings

F Michael Carcone (two years, $1.55M)
G Connor Ingram (three years, $5.85M)
F Jack McBain (two years, $3.2M)

McBain is coming off his first full NHL campaign. He brought plenty of physicality to the table and showed some offensive promise with 26 points, but with such a limited track record, a bridge deal was the only route they could realistically take. Carcone has spent most of his career in the minors but made an impression at the Worlds back in May. In doing so, he gave himself enough leverage to land a one-way deal, which should give him a legitimate opportunity to make Arizona’s roster in training camp.

Ingram got off to a rough start, posting a save percentage of just .866 in his first eight appearances. However, he played at a .921 mark the rest of the way (spanning 19 games), bolstering his case heading into arbitration eligibility. He’s set to remain Karel Vejmelka’s backup for the upcoming season and could push for more playing time if he starts out the way he finished last year.

Key departures

F Christian Fischer (Detroit, one year, $1.125M)
F Zack Kassian (buyout, unsigned UFA)
D Connor Mackey (Rangers, one year, $775K)*
D Patrik Nemeth (buyout, Bern, NLA)
F Brett Ritchie (unsigned UFA)

Kassian’s primary value to the Coyotes came on the trade front when they moved up three spots in the first round in 2022 while also picking up a pair of other picks for assuming the rest of his contract. The 32-year-old struggled mightily last season, however, managing just two goals without a single assist in 51 games, resulting in Arizona opting to pay him to go away. Fischer was considerably more effective with 27 points, but the Coyotes didn’t want to run the risk of an arbitration award coming in higher than they were willing to pay. With the added depth up front, they should be well-positioned to cover these two departures. Ritchie came over at the trade deadline from Calgary (in a swap for his brother, no less) and held his own with five points in 16 games. He’s a candidate to land a PTO in the coming days.

Like Kassian, Nemeth’s main value for the Coyotes came in the draft picks (a pair of second-rounders) that came with him to take on the two remaining years of his contract. The 31-year-old held down a regular spot on the third pairing but wasn’t going to be part of their future plans, resulting in the buyout. As for Mackey, he had a very limited role with Calgary for the bulk of last season but averaged nearly 16 minutes a night after being acquired at the deadline. However, the Coyotes opted to go in another direction rounding out their back end for the upcoming season.

Salary-cap outlook

Even with more than $21M of injured veterans on the roster, the Coyotes find themselves nearly $4M under the cap ceiling, per CapFriendly. That gives them ample room to free up in-season space. If they get hit with a rash of injuries, any of Shea Weber, Bryan Little or Jakub Voracek can be placed onto LTIR, so the cap will not be a problem for them at all in 2023-24.

Key questions

How will Cooley impact the team? Cooley’s decision to turn pro gives the Coyotes a player who could push for big minutes relatively quickly. As one of the key cogs of their rebuild, he should find himself with a prominent role right away. His presence as a top rookie is likely to be overshadowed by another freshman in his division (who will be playing for Chicago), but a strong showing could help to provide some light at what has already been a long rebuild for Arizona.

Notably, Cooley is also worth keeping an eye on to see how his presence affects Barrett Hayton’s progress. The 2018 fifth overall pick had somewhat of a breakout year last season while working his way onto the top line in the process. If Cooley is able to play his way up the depth chart quickly, will Hayton’s numbers dip? It’s a contract year for the 23-year-old so Cooley’s presence and performance could make an impact in those discussions for Hayton.

Can Ingram secure a bigger role? Which version of Ingram will the Coyotes get this season? He certainly finished up on a strong note which helped him land nearly $6M guaranteed despite having just 30 career regular season games under his belt. Vejmelka has done a nice job in his two seasons in the desert, but Ingram outperformed him in the second half of last season. If Ingram secures a bigger share of the workload, it’s possible that Vejmelka — who has been in trade speculation before — could become a more plausible candidate to move.

Is Schmaltz next? In recent seasons, there has been no shortage of veterans moving out of Arizona. One who hasn’t moved yet is Nick Schmaltz. He is coming off two productive seasons of 59 and 58 points, each in 63 games while moving primarily to the wing after spending a lot of time down the middle. However, his heavily back-loaded contract starts to loom large as he’s owed $24.45M over the final three years of his deal. If the Coyotes are still a few years away from contention, Schmaltz might not be part of their longer-term plans. If that’s the case, it stands to reason that Arizona might look to move him at some point to save some money while landing some strong younger assets as well. It might not be the case early, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Schmaltz in trade speculation as the season progresses.