A salary cap deep dive for the San Jose Sharks

Meier’s contract is a by-product of what teams expected the financial picture to look like at this time, one that featured some significant increases to the Upper Limit. The heavily back-loaded structure sees him carry a $10M salary this season which also represents his qualifying offer next summer. While the new CBA put in the 120% of AAV cap (unofficially thought by some as the Meier Rule), contracts signed before that time like his aren’t subjected to it. Under the projected future cap from a few years ago, a $10M price point for a top-line winger would have been high but probably reasonable but now, it’s certainly on the high side. It’s unlikely San Jose would non-tender him next summer even at that price tag but they’ll be wanting him to leave a bit of money on the table from an AAV perspective on a long-term extension.

Bonino has scored at least 10 goals in six straight years and eight of the past nine while winning faceoffs at an above-average rate. That combination makes him a bottom-six fit for several teams so he should have a decent-sized market next summer at a similar price point to this. 

Gregor spent most of last season with the Sharks and acquitted himself well but San Jose’s cap situation basically forced a one-year deal. He’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer and should add at least a few hundred thousand to his price tag.  

Nieto, Gadjovich, and Viel are all role players that are likely to come in below $1M on their next contracts.

Nutivaara is coming off a season that limited him to just a single appearance due to a lower-body injury, but he has a track record of being a serviceable third-pairing player. He’ll max out on his bonuses at 60 games played and if he’s able to suit up that many times, he’ll have a stronger market and a chance to earn a bit more next summer.  

Knyzhov missed last season due to a core muscle injury and tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training earlier this month, which will cause him to miss at least the first half of the season. He’s a capable young defender but these injuries will limit him to another short-term, low-cost contract.

Reimer will be the second goaltender next season after Adin Hill was moved to Vegas. The 34-year-old got the bulk of the starts in 2021-22 and did alright considering how much the team struggled. A similar showing this season would put him in line for at least a small raise as the cost for quality veteran backups continues to rise.

Signed Through 2023-24

F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5M, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75M, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75M, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.75M, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5M, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($763K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05M, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25M, UFA)

Labanc’s contract is basically the reward he received for taking a significantly below-market contract back in 2019 to help with San Jose’s cap situation at that time. Things have not gone well since then as he has battled injuries and struggled to produce. At this point, his market value two years from now might be half of his current cost.  

Barabanov quietly finished fifth on the Sharks in scoring last season with 39 points and this deal represents a lower-risk commitment to see if it was a fluke or a sign of things to come.

Kunin and Lindblom are newcomers that have shown flashes of upside but haven’t been able to put it together consistently. Kunin’s cost is a bit high relative to his production but power forwards often get more than market value. Lindblom hasn’t been the same since returning from his bout with cancer which resulted in the Flyers buying him out this summer. Both are on placeholder deals to see how they’ll fit on a new team and to give top prospects like Eklund and Bordeleau time to develop. If things go well, small raises could come their way. 

Lorentz comes over from Carolina and is a fourth liner that the Sharks feel might be able to play higher in the lineup. That will need to happen for him to have a chance at a notable raise next summer.

Simek hardly played last season and doesn’t appear to be part of their plans on the back end beyond a depth spot. However, this isn’t a particularly ideal market for cutting salary so it’s unlikely that San Jose will be able to move him. Unless he can lock down a regular role, his next contract will be closer to half of what he’s getting now.  

Megna is a serviceable depth defender at the league minimum for two years and if he can play on the third pairing most nights, he’ll have a shot at a small raise in 2024. Notably, this contract is his first one-way pact after four straight two-way deals.

Kahkonen was brought over from Minnesota at the trade deadline with the hopes that he can be San Jose’s starter of the future. However, a limited track record made a long-term deal very difficult to work out so they effectively settled on another bridge contract. If he can prove he’s a starter-caliber goalie, doubling his current AAV is achievable but if he proves to be more of a platoon option, his next deal will likely be in the $3M range.

Signed Through 2024-25

F Nico Sturm ($2M, UFA)

Sturm started his pro career late after going through college first and basically only has the last two seasons as a regular player where his role has been somewhat limited. Clearly, the Sharks believe there’s some upside that will justify the three-year commitment and if he’s able to produce closer to the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.

Signed Through 2025-26 Or Longer

D Matt Benning ($1.25M through 2025-26)
F Logan Couture ($8M through 2026-27)
D Mario Ferraro ($3.25M through 2025-26)
F Tomas Hertl ($8.1375M through 2029-30)
D Erik Karlsson ($11.5M through 2026-27)
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7M through 2025-26)

Hertl and Couture are San Jose’s one-two punch down the middle. Neither is a true number one option but both are better than number twos so the fact their AAVs lie in between the price tag of those two roles makes sense. The ability for them to maintain that level of production throughout the contract is the biggest question. Couture is already 33 with five years left while Hertl will be 36 when his contract is done. Their ability – or lack thereof – to sustain top-six production will ultimately determine if these contracts work out well for the Sharks or not.

Karlsson’s contract is the richest in NHL history for a defenseman and there have already been signs of slowing down in recent years. However, he had a nice bounce-back year offensively and even though he’s not the premier offensive blueliner he once was, he’s still a capable point-producer that can log heavy minutes. They’re not getting a good return on the contract but they’re getting something of note out of him. 

Vlasic, by contrast, is making considerably less money ($4.5M less, to be exact) but was borderline unplayable the last couple of years. At least with Karlsson, they still have an impact player for their money. Vlasic has four years left and is already getting harder to justify playing.

Ferraro has quickly become an integral shutdown defender for the Sharks (basically taking Vlasic’s old role) but his low offensive output certainly limited his earnings upside. That made a long-term contract difficult to work out so instead, the two sides agreed on a medium-term deal that walks him to unrestricted free agency in his prime. If Ferraro can even get to the 25-30-point range, he could add a couple million per year on his next contract. 

Benning getting four years was somewhat surprising – few teams make that type of commitment to a depth player – but the cost is low enough to limit the risk. He’s a serviceable third-pairing option and should be for a while and evidently, they feel there’s some value in having some stability in that spot.

Buyouts

F Rudolfs Balcers ($8K in 2022-23, $308K in 2023-24)
G Martin Jones ($2.417M in 2022-23, $2.917M in 2023-24, $1.667M from 2024-25 through 2026-27)

Retained Salary Transactions

D Brent Burns ($2.72M through 2024-25)

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: Bonino
Worst Value: Vlasic

Looking Ahead

The Sharks are going to be capped out this season despite having a roster that’s unlikely to push for a playoff spot. While they’ll have roughly $20M in cap space for next season, close to half of that will go to Meier alone and by the time they round out the roster, they won’t have much left to work with. Their next window to add will be two years from now when another $19M comes off the books. However, with several long-term, big-money commitments still on the books, their ability to truly shake things up is going to be limited unless GM Mike Grier can find a way to get one or more of those deals off the books.