A profile for free-agent wing Evgeny Svechnikov

Once one of the more exciting prospects in hockey, Evgeny Svechnikov hasn’t fully developed into the talent the Detroit Red Wings were hoping for when they selected him 19^th overall in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.  Taken just after Mathew Barzal, Kyle Connor and Thomas Chabot, Svechnikov was expected to be a dynamic threat just like those three, using his size and natural offensive talent to create, and capitalize on, offensive chances. Unfortunately, the enticing skillset he brought didn’t translate to the NHL and now, at age 25, the winger finds himself, for the second time in as many years, a UFA after failing to secure a qualifying offer.

Growing up in Russia, Svechnikov made his way through the Russian youth hockey scene, eventually securing a spot in the AK Bars organization. He would play parts of two seasons with their MHL team and even made his KHL debut during his age-17 season. The following year, 2014-15, Svechnikov made the jump to North America, joining the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles of the QMJHL, where he immediately impressed, scoring 32 goals along with 46 assists in 55 games. After the Red Wings selected him that June, Svechnikov returned to Cape Breton, dominating again with almost identical numbers: 32 goals and 47 assists in 50 games. The forward made his professional debut that season, skating in two playoff contests for the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins.

Svechnikov didn’t look back, playing a full season for the Griffins in 2016-17, tallying 20 goals with 31 assists in 74 games, showing he was ready for pro hockey in North America. Frustratingly for both player and organization, that would be Svechnikov’s last true step as a prospect. The next season, he would record just 23 points in 57 AHL games along with four points in 14 NHL games, following that up with 25 points in 51 AHL games and zero points in four NHL games. The 2020-21 season wasn’t much better and that summer, the Red Wings would fail to qualify him, making Svechnikov a free agent for the first time in his career.

Now 24, Svechnikov received strong interest from the Winnipeg Jets organization, signing an AHL contract and a PTO that eventually became an NHL contract. The Jets gave Svechnikov his first taste of full-time NHL action in 2021-22, but the winger still couldn’t put together a season that reflected the promise he once had. Over 72 games in Winnipeg, Svechnikov had just seven goals and 12 assists. That campaign did show he could play a full-time role for an NHL team, but perhaps also served to prove he was not set to become the player he was projected to be.

Stats:

2021-22: 72 GP, 7-12-19, -4 rating, 38 PIMs, 78 shots, 48.8 CF%, 10:45 ATOI

Career: 113 GP, 12-19-31, -10 rating, 58 PIMs, 125 shots, 49.3 CF%, 10:40 ATOI

Potential Suitors:

Finding a good fit for Svechnikov seems tricky. One aspect to consider is what does he bring to the table, and what is its value? At 25, he’s still relatively young and fresher than some of the veteran options that remain. Despite being fairly young relative to the other options, he still comes with experience, skating in 113 NHL games, as well as 186 in the AHL. Unlike many other players with his age and experience, Svechnikov brings his former prospect status. In other words, not too long ago, he had a ceiling higher than this. Almost 26, it’s rather unlikely he manages to hit or approach that ceiling, but he could still have a chance to bounce back to some extent and produce more than he has. Still, after his 51 points in 74 AHL games in 2016-17, he hasn’t been able to come close to replicating the production in the NHL or AHL.

Something worth considering is how little opportunity it seems Svehnikov has had when he does get on the ice in the NHL. Looking more closely at his career, Svechnikov has just 125 shots on goal. Granted, he’s only skated in 113 games, but it would be difficult to score at a high-rate when not shooting at a high-rate. It would also be difficult to shoot at such a rate, when averaging just 10:40 of time-on-ice, like Svechnikov has in his career. His 10:45 of time-on-ice and 78 shots in 2021-22, his only full season in the league, are fairly consistent with that of the rest of his career. Difficult, but fair: if Svechnikov can’t prove he can produce, he also won’t see those opportunities either.

Returning to the issue of where Svechnikov fits best, the answer might be a team looking for a diamond-in-the-rough talent, but also willing to give him the time and opportunity to succeed. Most teams won’t be able to justify giving a player with 31 points in 113 games those sorts of minutes, and those that may have them available could choose to give them to younger players who still hold their prospect status, leaving Svechnikov in a difficult state of limbo. One fit could be the Chicago Blackhawks, who appear committed to let their young players to develop in other leagues and have veterans hold the line for now. With the organization committed to the rebuild, they could be in a place to give Svechnikov some extra opportunities to prove his value.

Projected Contract:

Last offseason, Svechnikov signed a PTO with the Winnipeg Jets, earning a league minimum contract that he signed just prior to the start of the regular season. Over a month into free agency, it would appear Svechnikov is headed down that road once again. If he is offered a contract, whether that be in lieu of a PTO or afterwards, chance are it will not only be at the league minimum of $750K, but will be a two-way deal, much the same as it was this season.