2023-2024 NHL team preview: Carolina Hurricanes

LAST SEASON

Rod Brind’Amour’s hockey experiment in Carolina is reaching critical mass. The Hurricanes’ transformation from the little team that could to an Eastern Conference juggernaut has heightened expectations in Raleigh, where fans want a Stanley Cup to show for their three consecutive division crowns.

Since former Stanley Cup-winning captain Brind’Amour took over the Carolina bench in 2018-2019, only the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Colorado Avalanche have accrued more than the team’s 489 regular-season points. While that is a testament to the success of the Hurricanes’ relentless forecheck and top-to-bottom accountability, Carolina’s playoff record is a concern. After the Canes finished runner-up for the Presidents’ Trophy and reached the Eastern Conference Final last season, their lack of star power was again telling; Matthew Tkachuk, Sergei Bobrovsky, and the Florida Panthers swept the less dynamic team.

GM Don Waddell has spent his summer proving the organization means business about reaching the next level: free agent acquisitions Michael Bunting and Dmitry Orlov were arguably the two most coveted players in a wafer-thin UFA class. Bunting will add goals to a surprisingly punchless attack, while defenseman Orlov brings playoff pedigree to an already loaded blueline. Are they enough to bring the Cup back to North Carolina? With just 11 players under contract beyond next season and only 6 signed through 2025, if the Hurricanes are going to cash in on their consistent excellence, it has to happen now.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Dmitry Orlov, D
Michael Bunting, LW
Griffin Mendel, D
Brendan Lemieux, LW
Tony DeAngelo, D
Caleb Jones, D

Departures

Max Pacioretty, LW (Was)
Zach Sawchenko, G (Van)
William Lagesson, D (Tor)
Max Lajoie, D (Tor)
Shayne Gostisbehere, D (Det)
Mackenzie MacEachern, LW (StL)
Calvin de Haan, D (TB)
Ondrej Kase, RW (Czechia)
Malte Stromwall, C (Sweden)
Paul Stastny, C (UFA)
Derek Stepan, C (UFA)

OFFENSE

Maybe there is no reason to panic on offense for Brind’Amour’s outfit. Max Pacioretty’s series of unfortunate injuries, Andrei Svechnikov’s late-season ACL tear, and a team-wide finishing crisis (their 9.2% team shooting percentage was seventh-worst in the NHL) were bizarre circumstances that will not likely be recreated in 2023-2024. The Hurricanes, newly re-signed star center Sebastian Aho, and a returning ‘Svech’ will bury more of their ample chances en route to rehabilitating their scoring reputation. Right? 

No, probably not. Pacioretty’s inability to make his mark in Carolina and Svechnikov’s poorly timed injury were anomalies, sure, but that does not save the Hurricanes from scrutiny. Their shooting percentage and 3.2 goals per game were not outliers in the Brind’Amour era. Neither was even a low-water mark; the Canes won 46 games in 2018-2019 despite converting on just 8.6% of their shots for a measly 2.96 goals per game.

The long and short of it is that Carolina has not focused enough on scoring goals in recent seasons. The Hurricanes’ dominant puck possession metrics (they outshot opponents by 8.22 attempts last season) mean that they do not need to be clinical to score or win, but that formula has severely handicapped them in the tight confines of playoff hockey. Star power (or lack thereof) has been an issue as well; the Hurricanes relied heavily on bottom-six players like Jordan Martinook and Stefan Noesen for offense in the postseason, especially after Teuvo Teravainen went down with a busted hand. 

Waddell will hope that the addition of Bunting, who has scored 46 goals over the past two seasons, will give Brind’Amour a competent if not star-studded top six to work with. Aho deposited 36 goals in 75 games, top-scorer Martin Necas (28G, 71P) is good and getting better, and Teravainen has averaged .756 points per game since arriving in Carolina despite a down year last season. They are not exactly the Edmonton Oilers, but it’s a start. If one or both of youngsters Seth Jarvis (14G, 39P) and Jesperi Kotkaniemi (18G, 43P) can find another gear, perhaps the Hurricanes can finally score enough to win their vaunted defense a championship.

DEFENSE

In 2022-2023, it was another season, another dominant performance by the Hurricanes’ team-wide defensive system. Carolina does not have to graft and block shots like other defensive standouts because opposition teams rarely have the puck long enough to put them under significant pressure. Two-way forwards like Martinook, Jesper Fast, and captain Jordan Staal perpetuate the team’s relentless forecheck, giving Eastern Conference teams plenty to think about even before they clash with the vaunted top-four of Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Brett Pesce, and Brady Skjei.

Carolina conceded fewer goals than every team other than the 65-win Boston Bruins, and only Boston and the cagey New York Islanders have had a better defensive record since Brind’Amour’s arrival as coach. With each of Slavin, Burns, Pesce, and Skjei locked up next season, the Hurricanes could have put their feet up and worked on extensions for the group, none of whom is signed past 2025. Instead, they aggressively sought to improve it.

Orlov will immediately upset the current core makeup; the Russian is a Stanley Cup winner who can play on both sides of special teams, and Waddell did not make him the second highest-paid Hurricane through 2025 to not play big minutes. Slavin and Burns are untouchable after controlling an absurd 61% of high-danger chances and 60.6% of expected goals as a duo. What happens to Pesce and Skjei, then? Time will tell, but they were similarly effective last season, controlling 57% of expected goals and 56.5% of high-danger chances in more than 21 minutes per game.

Somehow, Orlov was not the only big-name defensive addition on a team with four defensive spots locked up and 27-year-old right-handed shot Jaden Chatfield, whose rating (+23) paced the club last season, under contract for 2023-2024. Tony DeAngelo returned to Carolina to replace the departing Shayne Gostisbehere on the right side of the power play, and though his experiment as a top-pair player for the Philadelphia Flyers was an unmitigated disaster, he is as dangerous as ever on offense. DeAngelo scored 11 goals and 42 points in 70 games for a nonexistent Flyers offense before returning to the team that has best been able to cover his defensive deficiencies in the NHL. Caleb Jones did a fair job as a stay-at-home defenseman for the lowly Chicago Blackhawks, and, at 26, could be a worthwhile reclamation project; he costs just $775,000 against the cap next season.

That gives the Canes eight bonafide NHL defensemen, none of whom played fewer than 66 games last season. Perhaps one or both of Pesce and Skjei will find themselves on the trade block: both are due extensions, and Waddell can likely only afford to keep one after Aho’s new contract kicks in. In the meantime, there are legitimate questions about who Brind’Amour will play, how they will line up, top blueliner Slavvin’s sudden downturn on offense, and when the 38-year-old Burns will hit a wall.

GOALTENDING

The reliable duo of Fredrik Andersen and Antti Raanta, Brind’Amour’s trusted double act in net, hit free agency this summer at a combined age of 67. It seemed that Waddell would decide whom he trusted more (probably the higher ceiling of Andersen) and allow 24-year-old Pyotr Kochetkov to push him throughout the season. Kotchetkov went 12-7 in 23 starts last season while giving up 2.44 goals per game and posting a .909 save percentage, both better marks than Andersen (2.48 GAA, .903 SV%) achieved. 

Instead, Andersen returned on a two-year, $6.8 million contract only for the Hurricanes to re-up Raanta on a $1.5 million contract of his own. It was a surprising development given the team’s lengthy commitment to the rapidly developing Kochetkov and the duo’s spotty injury record. Given that Raanta (2.23 GAA, .910 save %) significantly outplayed Andersen in the regular season only for the latter to step up in a big way in the postseason, it was always a tough call; that will not make Kochetkov any happier about having to return to the AHL for another year. Where that will be is unclear now after the divorce between the Hurricanes and Chicago Wolves.

Neither Raanta nor Andersen is a high-end No. 1 NHL goalie at this stage of his career, and Kotchetkov remains a relatively unknown entity with only 27 NHL games under his belt. The Canes are good enough on ‘D’ to win regular-season games with anyone in net, though, having allowed just 26 shots per game last season, the fewest in the NHL. If one of the three can reach elite levels, if only for the spring, Carolina would see its Cup chances skyrocket.

COACHING

Experts have described former Selke-winner Brind’Amour as having built a team of 18 copies of himself, an apt description given their tireless work rate and elite defensive metrics. Nothing has significantly changed on the Carolina bench over the offseason, which has pros and cons. On the plus side, Brind’Amour and right-hand-man Jeff Daniels (not that one) ran a penalty kill unit that was successful 84% of the time for an incredible fourth-consecutive season. On the other hand, Svechnikov’s injury exposed an already average power play: they converted on just 11.6% of man advantages after the sniper went down. Regardless of the Russian’s health, that number was unacceptable for a top team in a stretch run for the Metropolitan Division title.

ROOKIES

The quality of the Hurricanes’ pipeline is unquestioned, but how much that will matter next season is debatable. Carolina already has a logjam at its position of greatest developmental strength, the blueline. Lucky for them, top prospects Alex Nikishin and Scott Morrow were not going to join the team in 2023-2024 to begin with; Nikishin has two more years on his contract in the KHL, where he exploded for 55 points last season, while Morrow will return to UMass for another season of collegiate hockey. 

Morrow and Nikishin will continue the culture of defensive excellence in Carolina for years to come, but, for now, there is little to write home about when it comes to Hurricanes’ rookies, especially given the uncertainty around entry-level contracts with the Wolves out of the picture. Chatfield, Kochetkov, and center Jack Drury will all try to build on flashes from 2022-2023, but the Hurricanes will have no Calder contenders next season.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Michael Bunting, 30-goal sniper? Bunting was the right guy in the right place this offseason, a back-to-back 23-goal-scorer for hockey’s most visible team in a barren free-agent market. He cashed in as such, signing a 3-year, $13.5 million contract to help fix Carolina’s offensive woes. Is he that good? What happens to Bunting away from the friendly confines of Scotiabank Arena, where four Maple Leafs outscored Necas’s high-water mark of 71 points last season? Waddell is paying the 27-year-old to drive offense, a role he has never had to play at the NHL level. It feels like a signing that could go either very well or very poorly. 

2. Which Fredrik Andersen will suit up in 2023-2024? The regular season in 2022-2023 suggested that Fredrik Andersen had been relegated from reliable top goaltender to the dreaded savvy veteran tier. Andersen’s 2.48 GAA was a paper tiger produced by the team in front of him; his .903 SV% was the second-worst of his career, and, for the second time in three seasons, injuries hampered his availability. 

It looked like Andersen’s heavy usage rates from Toronto were finally catching up to him when suddenly the Dane turned back the clock to play lights-out hockey in the postseason, going 5-3 with a .927 SV% and surrendering just 1.83 goals a game. Maybe Andersen has some juice left in the tank after all. If he could play to the standard of his 2019 vintage behind this defense, the Hurricanes would become unbeatable.

3. How good is the Metropolitan Division? The Hurricanes have had an iron grip on the ‘Met’ the past two seasons, but contenders for the crown have never looked more dangerous. The Washington Capitals retooled after an uncharacteristically poor regular season. The New York Islanders remain a defensively sound thorn in the side of the division. The New York Rangers have their veteran core intact for another run at the Stanley Cup. The Pittsburgh Penguins added Erik Karlsson to the husk of their back-to-back Stanley Cup winners.

The team Carolina is most worried about, though, should be the New Jersey Devils. The Canes may have blitzed the Devils in last year’s second round, but New Jersey took them to the brink in the division race and will see all its stars continue to improve. The era of playoff home ice at PNC Arena is in jeopardy.

PREDICTION

It is difficult keeping a contender together in the NHL, as the Hurricanes will soon find out. Necas and Skjei are just a few of their key contributors due for raises, and with so much money poured into Bunting and Orlov, there will be sacrifices. Just not yet.

The Hurricanes spent their summer improving as much as they could sans an organization-changing trade, and they will spend their season finding out if that is enough to take them from a good team to a legitimate winner. The defense is airtight, and the goaltending will work out one way or another, but are Aho, Necas, Svechnikov, Bunting, Jarvis, and Kotkaniemi the horses Brind’Amour needs for his top six? It would take a marked but entirely possible improvement on anything the group has achieved.

The Hurricanes have improved where they could, but that does not assure a fourth-straight division title. The Devils are a year more mature after a 40-point leap last season and added veteran sniper Tyler Toffoli to an already stacked roster. The teams could fight to the finish again, and New Jersey has a great chance to knock the Canes from their perch. If Bunting and Orlov can take the team to the next level in the postseason, that is a tradeoff that Brind’Amour and Waddle would gladly accept.