Whoa! Let's tap brakes on expectations for Browns

Although there is not much competition, the 2019 Browns come equipped with the franchise’s best roster since the 1999 reboot. The Browns' metamorphosis from historic futility to this unusual position -– in barely 18 months -– represents one of the quickest resurrections in NFL history.

General manager John Dorsey's roster augmentations after the 0-16 conclusion illustrate the importance of front-office talent. Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett, Odell Beckham Jr. and Co. have a realistic chance to book the franchise’s first home playoff game in 25 years and are seemingly poised for long-term relevance.

This may be the most-hyped Browns team since the 1980s. Some of it is deserved. But key concerns exist that could derail this operation -– or at least delay the expected ascent.

Teams aggressively chased offensive coaches to keep up in 2019. The Cardinals bore the brunt of the criticism of this cycle producing some arguably unqualified hires. Their Kliff Kingsbury choice overshadowed the risk the Browns took. Freddie Kitchens entered October 2018 as the Browns’ running backs coach, with zero minutes spent as the top offensive voice for a team at any level. Cleveland’s new coach logged 12 pre-Browns NFL years, but at no point from Kitchens’ 1999 coaching debut to Hue Jackson’s firing did he have final say about a game plan. Dorsey made a hire nearly as radical as the Cardinals’ choice.

The first-year NFL head coaches who have thrived had more experience. Two won a Super Bowl: Don McCafferty with the Colts in 1970 and George Seifert in 1989 with the 49ers, perhaps the NFL's greatest team. Twenty-two years later, Jim Harbaugh guided San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game. More recently, Sean McVay ignited the Rams. The difference: These coaches held more responsibility than Kitchens prior to their promotions. Little precedent exists for this type of coach authoring a championship-level climb.

Mike Tomlin was a one-year coordinator who won a title in his second head-coaching season in Pittsburgh, but he inherited a stacked defense, a Super Bowl champion quarterback and a stable franchise. Peak Peyton Manning helped Jim Caldwell (seven seasons as the Colts’ quarterbacks coach) to Super Bowl XLIV in the coach's first season. The Browns (five head coaches and five GMs in Jimmy Haslam’s six-plus years as owner) do not have a similar infrastructure. Green-lighting this hire based on Kitchens' nine-week offensive coordinator trial run, which did ignite Mayfield, did not receive sufficient scrutiny.

Expectations surrounding a job involving a brash quarterback, a mercurial superstar wideout (who spent the summer burnishing those credentials), and a host of veterans will put Kitchens in a spotlight unlike any previous Browns coach. (Marty Schottenheimer, Blanton Collier and Paul Brown did not exactly have similarly paced news cycles during their tenures.)

This is an unusual job for a first-time head coach. Dorsey can praise Kitchens’ straightforward style, but when adversity hits, the longtime position instructor will not have much leadership experience on which to lean. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has more relevant seasoning on this front. Will that pose a problem?

For all the Browns’ on-field enhancements, their offensive line could undercut them. Greg Robinson did not beat out rookie undrafted free agent Desmond Harrison to open last season and has not remotely justified his No. 2 overall draft slot by the Rams in 2014. He is the Browns’ left tackle. After trading reliable left guard Kevin Zeitler to the Giants, the Browns have yet to see 2018 second-round pick Austin Corbett seize the reins. Sixth-year right tackle Chris Hubbard has not yet shown himself to be an upper-echelon blocker.

Carrying $35 million-plus in cap space, the Browns, 7-8-1 last season, boast a worse-looking front than the one Football Outsiders ranked 18th in 2018 adjusted line yards. Protecting Mayfield is rather critical. If Robinson stumbles, Cleveland’s tackle depth chart looks scary. This could be a landing spot for Trent Williams, the disgruntled Redskins tackle.

Dorsey has done well to ward off Haslam meddling, but this ownership regime has provided the NFL’s most dysfunctional environment since taking over. Haslam stumped for Johnny Manziel over staff objections, installed Sashi Brown as de facto GM (one of four front-office bosses Haslam fired from 2013-17) and overruled the front office by hiring Jackson over now-Bills coach Sean McDermott. Browns fans should need more time to feel remotely comfortable with this owner.

With Dorsey draft choices thriving in Kansas City and Cleveland, he's provided vital stability. Brown set up Dorsey with cap space and increased draft capital. But the “martyr” label is excessive; his lacking football acumen would have prevented the caliber of roster his proven replacement assembled. Haslam allowing Dorsey to operate without constraints will be vital to a Browns emergence. 

The Steelers losing future Hall of Famer/drama maven Antonio Brown and the Ravens seeing cornerstone defenders defect amid a radical quarterback experiment has destabilized the AFC North. But the Browns still ranked 30th defensively last season and have not beaten the Steelers since 2014. New Browns defensive coordinator Steve Wilks' one season as an organization's top defensive voice led to Kingsbury in Arizona. 

Like the bulk of the fast-emerging contenders this decade, the Browns have the advantage of a quarterback on a rookie contract. So do the Chiefs. The Chargers feature a more proven roster, and the Patriots still employ Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and have a cozy route to playoff byes.

The Browns look better set up for 2020. The Chiefs’ math -– extensions for Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones and perhaps Tyreek Hill -– will change next year, and the Patriots may or may not have a 43-year-old quarterback. Either option looks less imposing than their 2019 plan. Both Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers will creep closer to 40, while Mayfield will still be on a rookie deal with a more developed roster.

Browns 2019 expectations should be toned down. Even a 10-win season would establish Dorsey's roster and Kitchens. That legitimacy would enhance this blueprint's long-term viability. Based on just about everything that’s happened since 1999, the Browns are still in unfathomable position. But history and the AFC’s current landscape point to aspirations of a deep playoff run this season being a bit much.