Week 16 NFL mismatches: Why Patriots, Cowboys, Saints have major edge

Cowboys WR Amari Cooper vs. Eagles secondary

Why Cooper has the edge: He picked up where left off in 2018, when he averaged 80.6 receiving yards per game after being traded to Dallas from Oakland. In 2019, he averages a career-best 76.6 yards per game, ninth best in the league, and is 80 yards shy of his career-high for receiving yards in a season  (1,153 yards in 2016). Cooper has also set a a career-high in touchdown receptions (8) and is on track to set bests in yards per reception (15.1) and yards per target (10.5).

In his three games against Philadelphia since coming over to Dallas, Cooper has destroyed the Eagles, averaging 132.7 yards on 14.2 yards per target (nearly double the league average of 7.3). Cooper dominates against defenses that are susceptible to be plays. Philadelphia, which meets the Cowboys at home Sunday in a de facto NFC East title game, is eighth worst in the NFL with 12.1 yards per completion allowed. In his five games against teams ranked among the top-10 worst in yards per completion allowed, Cooper has averaged 107.3 yards and scored five touchdowns.

Why Philadelphia will struggle: The Eagles' secondary has played poorly recently, allowing the third-highest passer rating since Week 13 (113.1) despite playing against lower-tier QBs Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning and Dwayne Haskins over that span. In Week 15, Philadelphia allowed Haskins to throw for 9.3 yards per attempt -- he had failed to even hit 7.0 yards per attempt in any of his first seven career games. In Week 13, the Eagles allowed the Dolphins 37 points, 11 more than they have scored in any other game. Fitzpatrick threw for a season-best 365 yards that afternoon.

Cornerback is a problem area for the Eagles, especially recently. Since Week 13, Ronald Darby has allowed 2.9 yards per cover snap, second worst among 116 qualified cornerbacks over that span. Over the same span, Jalen Mills has allowed a 156.3 passer rating into his coverage, third worst in the league. On the season, Philadelphia's highest-ranked cornerback in yards per cover snap is Avonte Maddox (1.34), who is 92nd of 134 qualifiers.

Fantasy impact: Cooper has been a fantasy roller-coaster ride recently. His standard scoring totals over the past six games: 1.9, 14.3, 8.5, 0.0, 3.8, 20.7. However, recent history suggests a bounceback is likely. Since 2018, Cooper has averaged six catches for 82.2 yards in games following a sub-20 yard performance, which he had against the Rams in Week 15. Throw in Cooper's history against the Eagles and the recent struggles of their defense, and the outlook for the Cowboys WR is bright.

How Cooper does it: In Week 10 last season, Cooper's first game against the Eagles as a member of the Cowboys, he beat Ronald Darby for three first downs, including one below. Cooper, who is lined up against Darby wide right, begins his route by attacking Darby vertically for about six yards. Cooper then gives a hard fake inside before sharply cutting back out toward the sideline, gaining a ton of separation. Dak Prescott's throw is late, but Cooper goes up high for the contested grab with Darby closing in. This play is a great demonstration of the complete skillset that makes Cooper an elite weapon. 

Saints WR Michael Thomas vs. Titans secondary

Why Thomas has the edge: He is one of the most reliable wide receivers ever in the NFL. His 83.6 percent catch rate (receptions out of targets) is the second-best mark by a wide receiver with at least 100 targets, trailing only the 85 percent mark that Thomas himself posted a season ago. No other wide receiver has posted a catch rate above 77.2 percent with at least 100 targets. Over the course of his career, Thomas has a 78.8 percent catch rate, the best by a wide receiver since the stat was first tracked in 1992.

No player has come remotely close to matching Thomas' receiving production this season. Thomas' 133 receptions are 34 more than second-ranked DeAndre Hopkins of the Texans (99). That margin is equal to the difference between Hopkins and 30th-ranked James White (65). Thomas' 1,552 receiving yards are 219 ahead of second-ranked Chris Godwin of the Bucs (1,333). Simply put, Thomas is a major mismatch for any team that is weak in pass coverage, a description that is applicable to Tennessee.

Why Tennessee will struggle: The Titans, who rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, struggle in crucial situations. With 10 or more yards to go on third down, they have allowed a 31.1 percent conversion rate, fourth worst in the league. In the red zone, Tennessee has given up a first down or touchdown on 40.3 percent of plays, second worst. That will be a problem against Thomas, whose leads the league with 11 catches for a conversion in the red zone.

Logan Ryan, Tennessee's highest-paid defensive back, struggles in the slot, where he allowed a league-high 719 yards and is tied for the league lead with five touchdowns allowed. His average of 1.78 yards per cover snap allowed in the slot ranks fifth worst of 51 qualified cornerbacks. Ryan's struggles in the slot will be exposed by Thomas, whose average of 3.36 yards per route run out of the slot leads the NFL by a wide margin.

Fantasy impact: Thomas is the best fantasy wide receiver in any format, but he is even better in PPR formats. At Tennessee in Week 16, Thomas is set up for a double-digit catch game. Because of the great disparity in quality between the Titans' pass defense (22nd in DVOA) and run defense (5th), teams tend to heavily favor the pass against them. Opponents have thrown 522 passes against the Titans, tied for sixth most in the NFL, and have completed 337 of them, also sixth most. This sets up Thomas for ton of catches.

How Thomas does it: Thomas is impossible to stop one-on-one in the short area of the field. His route-running is excellent, and his short-area quickness makes him difficult to stick to. He has strong hands and a great rapport with Drew Brees, who always knows exactly where to put the ball to give Thomas a good shot at it. To top it off, Thomas has an impressive nose for the first-down marker. He makes the extra effort to move the chains, and can create with both shiftiness and power after the catch.

This play against the Colts is just a six-yard grab that will probably not make many highlight tapes, but it shows off the traits that make Thomas a beast. Thomas (bottom) creates comfortable separation on this short curl route, stopping on a dime to shake off Rock Ya-Sin. Brees begins throwing before Thomas even turns around, knowing Thomas will win the route and make himself an open target. Thomas goes up and stabs at the ball with two hands, hauling it in despite the hit from behind. Aware of where the sticks are, Thomas then drags Ya-Sin up the field and reaches the ball out to pick up the first down, showing off his underrated strength after the catch.