Six NFL anomalies heading into Week 6

Two Many Ties

The 2018 season started off with a bang for most teams, but for two teams it was more of a whimper.

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers played to a 21-21 tie in Week 1, while the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers finished 29-29 after overtime in Week 2. That is a little strange. This is the first time there has been a tie in the first two weeks of a season since 1971.

In 2016, there were two ties all season long (there have now been a total 24 since 1974). But the NFL changed overtime rules in 2017 (shortening the overtime from 15 minutes to 10 minutes) and since there were no ties last season, we thought the rule change was good. Then 2018 happened and folks are already calling for the rules to change again.

OT Bonanza

Regarding tie games, our “deep” statistical analysis definitely shows us one thing: tie games are directly related to overtime games — on that there can be no debate. And if it seems there are a lot of overtime games this season, that is true. But not by as much as you would think. In the first five weeks of the season, there have been eight overtime games — which seems like a lot. But we “dove deep” into the record books (the last five years) to find that it is only slightly anomalous.

In 2017, there were six overtime games played in the first five weeks; in 2016 there were only two; in 2015 back to six again; and five in 2014. So, while 2018 has the most OT games out of five weeks in the past five years, the most irregular season was last year when there were only two OT games. So, we probably need to see the rest of this current season play out before we start calling for rule changes to make NFL coaches more non-risk adverse and go for two more often — like Doug Pederson did late in the game against the Vikings on Sunday.

Pederson’s Eagles were down 20-6 when they scored a fourth-quarter touchdown and then went for a two-point conversion to make it 20-14. It looked he was anticipating a potential 21-20 victory before he needed to do so. His team did get to 21, but the Vikings kicker Dan Bailey made a 52-yard field goal (after earlier missing two shorter kicks) and the Vikings won 23-21. Pederson lost the game, but the early two-point conversion was a little out of the box, or at least out of the ordinary for an NFL coach, which isn’t all bad.

We Get No Kicks Out of Missing Them

And speaking of missed kicks, there were plenty on Sunday. As we said, the Vikings Dan Bailey — the second-most accurate kicker in NFL history — missed two field goals. But he also made three (including the important game winner). His neighbor across the river in Wisconsin, however, didn’t fare so well.

The Packers’ Mason Crosby missed four field goals and an extra point indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, and his team lost to the Lions by eight points. As of this writing, he hasn’t lost his job yet. But earlier this season, the Vikings rookie kicker Daniel Carlson did lose his after missing three field goals (two in overtime) — any one of which could have broken that second tie of the season.

There have been other field goal misses this season that could have won games (see Cleveland below), but are they being missed at an alarming rate? Well, so far this season, the league-wide percentage of field goals made is 82.4. That is down, but not terribly so when compared to the previous four seasons: 84.3 in 2017, 84.2 in 2016, 84.5 in 2015 and 84.0 in 2014. We will see what happens as the pressure mounts in December.

Cleveland is Winning Games

We all have heard about the Cleveland Browns’ record of futility (one win in the previous two seasons), so it should be shouted from the hilltops that the Brownies have only lost two games in the first five this season. At 2-2-1, they are trending in the right direction — despite that opening game tie against Pittsburgh (which they could have won with a good kick in OT).

But the kicking game has made up for it as the Browns came away winners with a 12-9 overtime triumph over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. That makes the team 2-2-1 on the season and 1-1-1 in overtime games. Perhaps this entire article could have been written about the Browns since ties, OT and missed kicks have all been a big part of their season. The biggest part for the Browns, however, is the fact that Baker Mayfield is now under center.

The quarterback quandary that has befuddled the team for years may finally be over, as Mayfield won his first game as a starter on Sunday.

Young Guns’ Day in the Sun

And speaking of young guns at quarterback, nearly all the first-rounders appear to have supplanted their mentors and (together with all the second- and third-year quarterbacks in the league) are ushering in a new era of signal-callers.

Mayfield in Cleveland is technically 2-1; Josh Allen has two wins as a starter in Buffalo; Josh Rosen got his team off the schneid in Arizona and Sam Darnold has been playing all season long and is 2-3 for the New York Jets.

Only Lamar Jackson has yet to start a game in Baltimore, because Joe Flacco has put the brakes on his ascension. But after a 12-9 overtime loss to the Browns on Sunday and a 123-minute touchdown drought for the Ravens offense, things could change. Stay tuned.

It’s a Receivers-Driven League

The quarterbacks have to throw to somebody, and they have been doing it a lot (Andrew Luck leads the league with 245 passes thus far, which is just under 50 throws per game — and he has close company).

But the receivers have been setting some records, and it starts with the Atlanta Falcons’ Julio Jones. Jones, with 502 receiving yards in the first four weeks in 2018, was on pace to become the NFL’s first 2,000-yard receiver. And while that is good, another record is even more fascinating. A week later, the Vikings Adam Thielen passed Jones in yardage total (589 to 564) on the season and became the first player since the merger in 1970 to start the season with five consecutive 100-yard receiving games. One of the players he passed for that record was another former Viking, Randy Moss, who is newly minted in the Hall of Fame.

Thielen, of course, was undrafted, went to a Division II in Mankato, Minn. and received only $500 in scholarship money. But he became a Pro Bowler last season. So, that is kind of out of the ordinary. But the receiving hats off goes to DeAndre Hopkins, who leads the league in yardage (594) and now has the best chance to reach 2,000. Meanwhile, rookie Calvin Ridley from Atlanta leads all receivers with six touchdown receptions. This is no longer your grandfather’s “three yards and a cloud of dust” NFL.

Are you not entertained?