Saints' Drew Brees declining? That's laughable

One egregious non-call in the NFC Championship Game kept Drew Brees from a shot at his second Super Bowl last season. In 2018, he set an NFL record for completion percentage (74.4). He led the league in passer rating (115.7), and despite Patrick Mahomes’ otherworldly numbers and performance, many believed the Saints' quarterback was a more deserving MVP candidate.

Against that backdrop, why is there so much discussion about Brees declining? The case against him is flimsy, at best. There were a handful of bad throws that didn’t have the necessary steam on them in the playoffs. And during a three-game stretch in the regular season, Brees looked worse than pedestrian and leaned on his defense to escape with two victories.

Is that really grounds to suggest that a guy is done as an elite quarterback? It wouldn’t be if Brees were 30. Or 35. The only conclusion I can come up with is that Brees’ advanced football age — he’s now 40 — has convinced pundits that we’ve seen his best, and it’s all downhill from here.

So what’s the truth? It isn’t somewhere in the middle. Brees still is among the best of the best, and there's plenty of proof on my side. 

Let's examine those rough games in Weeks 13 through 15: In the 13-10 loss to Dallas on the road in Week 13, the Saints faced a top-10 defense and a desperate team. Home teams went 10-3 on "Thursday Night Football" last season, with the woeful Cardinals and Giants accounting for two of the home losses.

In the 28-14 win in Week 14 against the Bucs, the Saints roared back from a 14-3 halftime deficit with 25 unanswered points in the second half. In the 12-9 win in Week 15 against division rival Carolina, New Orleans faced a good defense on the road. The Saints were one of only three teams in the league to play three straight road games, and their stretch away from home came latest in the season.

Brees has advanced stats on his side as well. He was Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded passer for the regular season (94.0). To put that in perspective, Mahomes’ grade was a 92.7 and Philip Rivers' was 90.3. No other quarterback cracked 90. That includes Tom Brady, who’s two years older than Brees and isn’t facing the same type of scrutiny about a possible decline. That’s the kind of deference that six Super Bowls will earn you, but had he run into Brees in the Super Bowl, he might still only have five.

Brees also lapped the field in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage stat, with a mark of 82.2. No other quarterback topped 80, and the league average was 75.3. Adjusted completion percentage credits quarterbacks for on-target passes that are dropped, and excludes passes whose result is out of their control for one reason or another, with tipped passes and spikes being two examples.

Brees’ accuracy at all levels — short, intermediate and deep — was unmatched. He consistently put the ball on target, whether his receiver was wide open, covered or tightly covered.

Michael Thomas was Brees’ primary target, and no receiver with at least 80 catches had a higher passer rating when targeted than Thomas’ 124.5, or a higher catch percentage than his 85.6. Thomas deserves plenty of credit for both of those stats, but much of their success stems from Brees being on target almost every time.

When I asked former NFL scout Matt Williamson his opinion of Brees’ three-week swoon, he was quick to credit the quality of the defenses. He made it clear that Brees' overall accuracy was outstanding.

Williamson had another explanation for Brees’ late-season troubles, saying, “I do think there is really something to the notion that older quarterbacks really begin to wear down deep into the year… [Tom] Brady is another example.”

That makes sense. And Brady did wear down. His three lowest-graded games, according to PFF, were in Weeks 13, 15 and 16. He was better in the playoffs, but still not great, particularly in the Super Bowl, when New England’s defense carried the day in dominant fashion.

Brees got better later, too. He was excellent in a taut Week 16 win over Pittsburgh, survived a stern challenge from the Eagles in the divisional round, then had the Rams dead and buried until that blown interference call. 

If the right call had been made, and Brees had made a bid for his second title, this narrative would not have emerged. It shouldn’t have, anyway, because whether you look at the traditional stats, the advanced metrics, the tape, or the Saints’ record, one thing becomes abundantly clear: The suggestion Drew Brees is declining is laughable.