Projecting a multi-year deal for Bengals RT Jonah Williams

2019 was the last time the Cincinnati Bengals entered the NFL Draft with compensatory picks to play with. It was also the same year the Bengals spent their first-round pick on offensive tackle Jonah Williams. 

Should the Bengals not make a cannonball-size splash in free agency this offseason, Williams has a good chance of sending the Bengals a high compensatory pick right back to his original team.

Free agency is still several weeks away, but the idea of Williams and the Bengals going their separate ways is widely accepted in Cincinnati. Williams is expected to test the open market for the first time a year after having to accept a position change he did not anticipate. 

What's in store for Williams once free agency begins? That's what we're here to find out.

Jonah Williams' projected contract value 

The clear starting point is establishing what other starting right tackles signed for in recent years. The top of the position's market sits right above $20 million per year, with Lane Johnson ($20.1875M) of the Philadelphia Eagles barely eclipsing Jawaan Taylor ($20M) of the Kansas City Chiefs. Both contracts were signed last year.

Beneath each of those top deals are eight contracts with an Average Annual Value (AAV) between $15M and $19.2M, featuring players such as Houston Texans' Tytus Howard ($18.667M), Denver Broncos' Mike McGlinchey ($17.5M) and Dallas Cowboys' Terence Steele ($16.5M). These are the best possible floors for Williams.

Compare Williams to those players how you'd like, free agent starters at his position all have baked-in leverage at their disposals. There's never going to be an offseason in which multiple clubs aren't in need of at least one new starting tackle; be it a potential upgrade or simply replacing an outgoing veteran. Demand for Williams' position is simply high year in and year out. 

Even though 2023 wasn't his best season for the Bengals, that he stayed healthy for all 17 games and playing over 1,000 snaps at a new position is more valuable than you may think. 

Williams is the only pending unrestricted free agent tackle to have played 100% of his team's snaps last year. He's also one of just three under the age of 30 with greater than 75% of snaps played.

Over The Cap

Williams is a 64-game starter (playoffs included) who's been on the field for over 4,000 snaps. Starting experience, availability, and youth are all driving factors towards getting a guy like Williams paid. As one of only a few who check all those boxes, and with multiple potential suitors due to the demand for his position, the former first-round pick could easily command an AAV of $15M or greater.

Past production is the area that could hamper Williams' actualized value when he signs on the dotted line. It doesn't help that his last two seasons in Cincinnati were arguably his two worst. For this reason, A to Z Sports' salary cap experts Josh Queipo and Kyle Dediminicantanio projected Williams will only see a cheap, one-year deal in free agency:

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
1 Year, $5M, $5M APY, 2.5M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4M

A one-year deal would give Williams a chance to enhance his value for another free agency try next year, but this outcome would confirm the league unanimously agrees Williams is not a starting-caliber tackle anymore. A safer assumption to make is the league's constant desperation to protect franchise quarterbacks will give Williams a chance to continue starting somewhere. 

If Williams' multi-year contract doesn't crack the top 10 for right tackles, the fall off is notable but not catastrophic. Fellow 2019 first-round pick Kaleb McGary signed an extension with the Atlanta Falcons worth $11.5M AAV. More recently, 2020 first-rounder Austin Jackson inked an extension with the Miami Dolphins worth $12M AAV. Jackson reached the top of the mid-tier market with his deal, forming a gap below the $15M AAV mark set by Jack Conklin of the Cleveland Browns in 2022.

Williams exceeding Jackson's $12M AAV to further bridge the gap between the two market tiers feels like his true worst case on the open market. Values in that range would also be expected should a team sign him as a left tackle, as the only differences between the two positions is the market ceiling for left tackles are notably higher.

Williams may not be resetting the left or right tackle market when March comes around, but the established markets for both positions will ensure he'll receive attractive offers worth at least $11-12M per year. It will only take one club desperate for a new starter for him to sign for much more than that.