NFL Week 1 longshot bets: Looking to backup running backs

The NFL is a violent league. Injuries happen every week, and players slotted for big roles get forced out on the regular. While we won't sit here and root for injuries, it's hard to ignore the prices on some of these backups to score. They are one injury or blowout away from a significant role, particularly at the running back position.

Now, if we were to bet this market with regularity, one thing needs to be made abundantly clear: these are longshots that open up extreme volatility. The beauty, at least as I see it, is we need to hit on less than 20% of these wagers to turn a profit (unofficial math). Cashing even one of the three names I have listed below would put us in the green from this article.

Don't hinge your morale on the success of these names, I'll likely be placing .25u-.5u on these bets. I think the approach makes sense, don't you? We're not just betting on every single backup running back to score, we're looking for players in a good matchup, or who line up behind an injury-prone runner.

.25u: Nyheim Hines 2+ touchdowns (+2800 FD)

This started out as partly a joke on my end after seeing Jonathan Taylor listed at a ridiculous -340 to score on Caesars for this weekend. There's no denying that Taylor is in as good of a spot as they come to score this weekend against a hapless Houston defense. He scored two touchdowns in both games against the Texans last season and has found the end zone in each of the four career games he's had against them.

There's something sadistic about this bet, there are going to be so many people who have a Taylor TD in their Sunday parlay.

Taylor being the heaviest favorite to score just turns on a switch for me. If books believe in him so much and in the matchup, then how do we not at least consider the only other running back likely to be involved in the Indianapolis offense.

There's been reports suggesting that Nyheim Hines is expected to have a "significant role" in the Colts offense this year, with the goal of slightly limiting Jonathan Taylor's workload. Perhaps that comes from carrying the football, but more likely it will come through the air. Hines has scored 16 times in four seasons, catching 40+ balls each year. 

Matt Ryan is the Indianapolis quarterback this season, and while Cordarrelle Patterson isn't the ideal comp for Hines, he was still a running back first in 2021. He caught five touchdowns, and Mike Davis caught one more. Looking back the past few years, and Ryan has shown an ability to keep a running back involved in the passing game.

Only two teams allowed more touchdowns to running backs than the Houston Texans in 2021. Hines to score once (+300 CZR) is the safer play, but this is a longshot article, and shots we'll take.

This game has blowout potential as well for the Colts, which would only lead to more Hines work late in the game.

.25u: Dontrell Hilliard TD (+700 DK)

Dontrell Hilliard is RB2 behind Derrick Henry. Henry is obviously a beast of a runner who will command the vast majority of work in this Tennessee offense.

Still, off a broken foot and now 28, maybe there's a chance the Titans lessen his workload just a bit in 2022. Hilliard scored twice last year, his first true season getting meaningful work. This bet is a simple one. A vultured opportunity near the goal line or Henry getting a brief spell to keep him fresh or healthy is all we're looking for with a Hilliard score.

There have been reports emerging from Tennessee that Hilliard is tearing it up as practice and growing into a potential "third-down back role." That's music to our ears with a +700 price like this. 

.25u: Alexander Mattison TD (+550 DK)

I find these odds incredible for one of the best backup running backs in the NFL. Last season, Dalvin Cook was tied for third in the NFL in red zone carries with 45. Mattison had 28 of his own, tied for 26th-most in the NFL.

Yes, a good chunk of that work came when Cook missed upwards of four games, but the bigger takeaway for me from that number is how often this Minnesota offense ran it in close. It's worth noting we have a new coaching staff in place, as Kevin O'Connell was named Vikings head coach in February, coming from the Rams.

Fret not! Rams running back Sony Michel was tied with Cook last season, totaling 45 red zone carries. Darrell Henderson also piled up the goal line work, toting the ball 24 times in the red zone, with the two of them combining for nine red zone touchdowns.

Mattison's workload is obviously significantly lower when Cook is healthy, and the Vikings RB1 is good to go to begin the season. However, Cook is a player that has missed games every season of his career. It's not inconceivable to expect some missed snaps to begin his age-27 season.

In total, I've risked just .75u on these three names. Be mindful of your bankroll:  it's only Week 1. I'm willing to roll the dice on prices like this, so let's how see the experiment goes as we had into a new NFL season.

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Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.