NFL Week 18: Picks and preview

TV: ESPN            LINE: Kansas City -9.5

Unless the Chiefs are done in by some Jarrett Stidham magic, it sure looks like the first season of the post-Tyreek Hill era will end with 14 wins. It seems like the Chiefs have weathered his departure just fine. That said, this team hasn’t really shown a killer instinct of late, and while they’re still, at worst, an AFC co-favorite, they seem at least on the surface like a more vulnerable team than perhaps they have at points in the recent past. Las Vegas gave a great accounting of themselves last week against the 49ers, and Stidham played a fantastic game, but this is unquestionably an organization that needs to rediscover its footing. Will that involve a Josh McDaniels- Tom Brady reunion? That might be tempting, but would Brady really be leaving Tampa Bay and heading to a better situation? One thing we know about him at this point is that he needs a stud offensive line in front of him to be the best version of himself.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jerick McKinnon’s 2 receiving touchdowns helped him make history; he’s the first running back since 1970 with a receiving touchdown in five straight games.

-Davante Adams has been unstoppable in division games this year; he has 100+ receiving yards in all five of them thus far and leads the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns.

The pick: Chiefs 30 Raiders 24

TV: ESPN            LINE: Jacksonville -6

The Titans are going with Josh Dobbs in this game, and while that might be terrifying for Tennessee fans to consider, he really didn’t look that bad for much of last Thursday’s game against the Cowboys. At the very least, Dobbs is going to go out on his shield, trying to make plays, which he did at times versus Dallas. If Tennessee is going to pull the rabbit out of the hat and beat a scorching-hot Jaguars group, however, they’ll have to do it on the back of Derrick Henry. Same as it ever was. There were lots of people who felt like Jacksonville had a chance at a big turnaround this season because they’d get above-average head coaching after a year of Urban Meyer’s nonsense. That wasn’t true at the outset, but Doug Pederson never lost this group, and he’s helped Trevor Lawrence make a major leap. Now all he has to do is see the process through for one more game. The Jaguars are better than the Titans. They merely need to get out of their own way. If they do, do you really think anyone in the AFC wants to deal with them in a playoff game?

Look smart to your friends:

-Safety Kevin Byard has been a ball hawk; since 2017, he ranks second in the NFL with 27 interceptions.

-Christian Kirk has continued to impress for the Jaguars; he has career highs in catches (78), receiving yards (1,009), and receiving touchdowns (7) this season.

The pick: Jaguars 27 Titans 16

TV: FOX            LINE: Atlanta -4

Well, the strange journey that was the NFC South in 2022 is over, and Tampa Bay emerged as the victor. Two things should be scary to the Buccaneers’ potential playoff opponents: Tampa gets a home game, whether they “deserve” one or not, and Tom Brady and Mike Evans seem to have rediscovered each other. Evans went off for 10 catches, 207 yards, and 3 touchdowns, and Brady looked closer to his vintage form than he has in months. Desmond Ridder is the future in Atlanta, and even though there’s a long way to go and lots of holes to fill on the roster, it had to be nice for him to get a game-winning drive in, even if the Falcons’ game with the Cardinals was perhaps the least-consequential contest of the day. Ridder has the mobility and arm strength to excel in the pros, but this offseason will be big for his development in the finer points of pro quarterbacking.

Look smart to your friends:

-Evans’ monster performance helped him make some NFL history. He’s now the only player ever with 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first nine career seasons.

-Tyler Allgeier has 1,039 scrimmage yards and is just the second Falcons rookie running back ever with 1,000+ scrimmage yards (William Andrews).

The pick: Falcons 26 Buccaneers 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -7

New England snuck by Miami in a game that saw the Patriots eventually seize full control when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the game with a finger injury. The Pats currently control their destiny; if they win this game, they’re in the playoffs, no matter what. That said, it’s difficult to trust their offense, which has looked truly dangerous perhaps once or twice in the last two months and couldn’t even get to 250 yards of offense last week. What Buffalo is going through as a team right now is unimaginable, and pending the outcome of the Chiefs game and the NFL’s decision on the Bills-Bengals game, there might not be much for Buffalo to play for. That said, there seems to be some good news about Damar Hamlin’s condition, as some heartening improvements in his condition, particularly from a neurological perspective, have been reported. As of now, all indications are that the Bills will play, though it’s anyone’s guess as to their collective mental state.

Look smart to your friends:

-Rhamondre Stevenson needs just 121 scrimmage yards to become the first Patriots player to top 1,500 in a season since Wes Welker in 2011.

-Bills safety Jordan Poyer is one of just four players in the NFL – Kevin Byard, Rasul Douglas, and Justin Simmons – with 4+ interceptions each of the past two seasons.

The pick: Bills 27 Patriots 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -7

Minnesota might have gotten exposed by the Packers. Or they might just not be very good, and everyone sort of hinted at that, and some of their peripheral numbers have driven home that reality all year long and…you get the idea. My “Mr. Obvious” side says that this team is a sitting duck in the playoffs. The devil’s advocate inside me will mention the fact that there are too many weapons on this offense to count out the Vikings. If Minnesota gets into a shootout, they can beat anyone. The Bears have a ton of holes. Their defense needs a total re-work. They need more weapons in the passing game, and a better offensive line. But, and it’s a big “but,” they have Justin Fields. And that makes doing all the rest of the work to the roster much easier, because Fields should be able to paper over certain deficient areas. His main tasks should be refining his work as a passer, and figuring out a way to take fewer hits as a runner. He’s sturdily built, but so are the guys hitting him. To that end, Nathan Peterman will quarterback the Bears in this one.

Look smart to your friends:

-Perennially excellent safety Harrison Smith is one of just two players (Minkah Fitzpatrick) with 85+ tackles, 10+ passes defensed and 5+ interceptions this season.

-Jaquan Brisker has put together a solid rookie season; he’s fourth among rookies with 94 tackles, and is second among defensive backs with four sacks this year.

The pick: Vikings 30 Bears 13

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -7

The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have done one of the stranger contract dances in recent NFL history, and Jackson’s value is hotly debated almost daily. Still, one thing seems obvious: Even though Baltimore has weathered his absence more effectively from a wins and losses perspective this year than they did last year, they are a different and vastly diminished team when he’s not on the field. If he doesn’t come back at all this year, their stay in the playoffs will be brief. As of this writing, there is no clarity on what is happening with the Bengals-Bills game, but if it is ruled a no-contest, Cincinnati will automatically win the AFC North. The Bengals certainly have the look of a team that could make a deep run regardless, just as long as they keep Joe Burrow upright.

Look smart to your friends:

-J.K. Dobbins has been shredding the AFC North of late; he’s averaged 112.7 yards per game in his past three contests against division opponents.

-Speaking of shredding a division opponent, Ja’Marr Chase is averaging 125.3 receiving yards per game in his three career games against the Ravens.

The pick: Bengals 31 Ravens 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Indianapolis -2.5

The Texans still don’t have the top pick in this year’s draft sewn up. The Bears could still pass them if Houston wins this game and Chicago loses, and the Bears are starting Nathan Peterman this week…so there’s that. Lovie Smith has handled a pretty impossible situation with dignity, and his team is playing hard, but this is a situation where a win would be actively bad for his team. They’ll never admit it, but they know that, too. Indianapolis needs a full-on overhaul, and while it sure seems like Jim Irsay wants to give Jeff Saturday the head-coaching job full-time, nothing Saturday has done in his interim tenure suggests he deserves it. Indianapolis needs to bring in someone who can nurture the franchise’s next quarterback, which will likely be C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young. Do they want to give up a huge haul to get Sean Payton out from under his Saints contract?

Look smart to your friends:

-Brandin Cooks is looking for his fourth game in a row with 4+ catches. He’s one of just four players in the NFL with 500+ receiving yards in each of the past nine seasons.

-Michael Pittman Jr. needs just 105 receiving yards to join Marvin Harrison, T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne as the only players in franchise history with consecutive seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards.

The pick: Colts 21 Texans 13

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -1.5

The bloom came off the Mike White rose last week in Seattle. White looked mostly terrible against the Seahawks, something that Jets fans were really only accustomed to when Zach Wilson was under center. Still, White’s overall body of work this season has been such that a wretched performance like what he turned in last week can be forgiven. He’s still the best quarterback on this roster by a considerable margin. Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami’s got big problems at the position. Tua Tagovailoa is out, Teddy Bridgewater can’t throw a football as of this writing, and Skylar Thompson is, in fact, Skylar Thompson. Things are so dire that the Dolphins have signed Mike Glennon to the practice squad. What looked like a potential dream season, one that some (me) thought could end in the Super Bowl, has turned into a nightmare.

Look smart to your friends:

-Tyler Conklin is far from a household name, but he’s one of just seven tight ends with 50+ catches and 500+ receiving yards in each of the past two seasons.

-Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have 2,999 receiving yards this season, and need 176 combined yards to set the record for most ever by teammates in a single season.

The pick: Jets 23 Dolphins 13

TV: FOX            LINE: New Orleans -3

Let’s get this out of the way immediately: Steve Wilks deserves a serious look as the next Panthers head coach. The team has played extremely hard and often quite well for him since he took over for the fired Matt Rhule. Naturally, then, Jim Harbaugh’s “conversation” with owner David Tepper about the job has grabbed all the headlines. Tepper will make a big mistake if he overlooks Wilks, but there’s a fair chance that’s exactly what happens. The Saints are toast and have major salary cap issues, including big numbers for players whose importance and/or performance don’t match up with how much they cost the team. I can’t say I really understand what the Saints are doing; from the outside looking in, this looks like a directionless team that won’t be picking high enough to get their next quarterback and needs to retool in several areas.

Look smart to your friends:

-Frankie Luvu has had a highly-productive season; he ranks fourth in the NFL with a career-high 17 tackles for loss in 2022.

-Cameron Jordan’s 3 sacks last week made him the sixth player since 1982, with 7+ sacks in 11 straight seasons.

The pick: Panthers 24 Saints 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Pittsburgh -2.5

Deshaun Watson was a demonstrably worse quarterback than Jacoby Brissett in his first four games back from suspension. While his numbers were strange against Washington – just nine completions, three of which went for touchdowns – he did flash some of the big-play ability the Browns craved from him. He has a chance to play spoiler against Cleveland’s biggest rival, but the Browns are hoping for much more out of him in 2023. Kenny Pickett did it again for the Steelers, keeping their season alive with an all-or-nothing drive for the second week in a row. Pickett’s overall numbers are unimpressive, and the Steelers’ offense still has big-picture issues, but the defense has locked down on some bad quarterbacks, and Pickett has shown a knack for the big moment. A win here would, at the very least, continue Mike Tomlin’s streak of having never had a losing season since taking over as Steelers head coach.

Look smart to your friends:

-Amari Cooper needs just one touchdown catch to join Braylon Edwards as the only Cleveland players since 1970 with 10+ receiving touchdowns in a season.

-Pickett is the first rookie in league history to have a game-winning touchdown pass in the final minute of back-to-back games.

The pick: Browns 24 Steelers 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Denver -2.5

The Chargers still have seeding to play for, at least potentially, but big picture it has to be a relief for the franchise and its fans to see the team finally make the playoffs during Justin Herbert’s rookie contract, and also do it without having things go down to the last week of the season. Maybe this is the year that the franchise finally gets over the hump and makes some serious playoff noise. Russell Wilson has vowed to re-evaluate all of his preparation for this season and change what went wrong so that he doesn’t have a repeat of this year’s performance. One of the things he has already indicated he’s considering is slimming down after adding some bulk to better insulate himself from injury. A slower Wilson is not an effective player; Denver needs him to get his legs back, even at the risk of being more susceptible to injury (though he didn’t exactly avoid them this year).

Look smart to your friends:

-If Herbert throws a touchdown pass in this one, he will pass Peyton Manning for the most-ever games with a touchdown pass through three seasons, with 45.

-Latavius Murray is the only player in the NFL with 500+ rushing yards in each of the past 8 seasons, and the only player with 4+ rushing touchdowns in each of the past 8 seasons.

The pick: Chargers 28 Broncos 20

TV: CBS            LINE: Philadelphia -14

Brian Daboll should win coach of the year for getting a Giants team that is short on talent relative to many of its peers all the way to the postseason. That said, with Philadelphia not having sewn up the NFC’s top seed just yet, the G-Men might get a rude reminder of how far they are from the conference’s best in this one. Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley have been great this year, but New York sure feels like a one-and-done outfit. The Eagles need to play Jalen Hurts, right? New York is locked into the sixth seed, so they don’t have any reason to play their starters very much, if at all, but that doesn’t mean that Philly can throw Gardner Minshew out there again. Hurts is far from 100 percent, but it sure seems like getting an extra week off would justify the inherent risk in playing him.

Look smart to your friends:

-Dexter Lawrence is having a big season on the Giants defensive line. He has career highs in sacks (7.5), tackles for loss (7), forced fumbles (2), and passes defensed (3).

-The Eagles lead the NFL with 68 sacks this season and need five sacks to surpass the 1984 Bears for the most by a team in a single season in league history. The Eagles are also the first team ever with four players with 10+ sacks in the same year.

The pick: Eagles 28 Giants 16

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -14

J.J. Watt’s swan song will fly largely under the radar. The surefire Hall of Famer is having a very solid season, but the Cardinals have been one of the league’s biggest messes all year. Watt has been highly productive and disruptive to opposing offenses all year, but he might be a one-man gang against a high-powered Niners offense. Brock Purdy continues to shine; he has 10 touchdown passes in what amounts to five games’ worth of legitimate action. His play has been so strong that plenty of serious observers think San Francisco can win it all even with him under center. That’s a testament to how well he’s played, of course, but also a huge endorsement of how dominant the rest of the roster looks. Unless Purdy completely self-destructs, I would probably pick San Francisco to beat anyone in the league on a neutral field right this second.

Look smart to your friends:

-Watt is going out near the top of his game; he has 10.5 sacks this year, good for his sixth-career 10+ sack season. He also leads all active players with 192 tackles for loss and is third in sacks, with 112.5.

-Purdy has a chance to join Justin Herbert as the only rookie quarterbacks in league history with 2+ touchdown passes in six straight games.

The pick: 49ers 35 Cardinals 10

TV: FOX            LINE: Seattle -6.5

The Rams have certainly been an up-and-down bunch since Baker Mayfield stepped in at quarterback, with a few spectacular outbursts as well as a few truly horrible games. It seemed like Los Angeles finally hit a wall last week, where the toll of an injury-plagued, lost season finally started to show in earnest. Sean McVay and company are just trying to get to the finish line this year, which bodes well for Seattle. The Seahawks, for their part, turned Mike White into a scrub last week, a particularly surprising development given Seattle’s defensive struggles all year. Geno Smith was his usual sharp self, and though he had to battle through some nagging injuries, Kenneth Walker looked great as well. The Seahawks need a win and a Lions win to punch their playoff ticket, and I see no reason why they won’t be able to hold up their end of the bargain with relative ease.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jalen Ramsey hasn’t folded the tents on the season; he had his 15 ^th pass defensed of the season. He’s the first player since Cary Williams with 75+ tackles and 15+ passes defensed in consecutive seasons.

-Tariq Woolen became the first player since 2016 (Marcus Peters) with 15+ passes defensed, 6+ interceptions and 3+ fumble recoveries in a single season.

The pick: Seahawks 26 Rams 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -7

The Cowboys would need significant help – specifically, a pair of two-touchdown underdogs springing upsets – but they could still seize the NFC’s top seed. As it is, Dallas looks like an immensely strong wild card, and their reward for almost certainly being the fifth seed is a trip to Tampa Bay to take on a Bucs team that will get a week to rest whomever they wish, and that has to feel some legitimate confidence after Mike Evans’ explosion against Carolina. Doesn’t seem fair, does it? Washington has pieces you’d think any team would like; a defensive line still brimming with talent that didn’t even have Chase Young for almost the entirety of the year, talented young wide receivers and running backs, and…ah yes, I’m being told the Commanders don’t have a quarterback. Washington will remain an also-ran, dangerous in any given week but without real staying power, until they find someone to stabilize the situation under center.

Look smart to your friends:

-Ezekiel Elliott needs just 42 scrimmage yards to become the fourth player ever, along with Adrian Peterson, Emmitt Smith and LaDainian Tomlinson with 1,000+ scrimmage yards and 8+ touchdowns in each of their first seven seasons.

-Daron Payne had his second-career two-sack game last week, and is leading the Commanders with a career-high 11.5 sacks and a career-high 18 tackles for loss, the latter number tied for the second-most in the NFL this season.

The pick: Cowboys 31 Commanders 21

TV: NBC            LINE: Green Bay -4.5

This is Detroit’s moment. The Lions have roared back from a 1-6 start to get to this point. They don’t fully control their destiny; they need a win and a Seahawks loss to make it to the playoffs, but the mere fact that they are at this point is astounding. Dan Campbell is building something in Motor City, and perhaps I’m biased, as this picks column has adopted the team, but if Detroit gets in, they can make serious noise. Oh, and if they make it, the Lions will be just the second team in the last 52 years, along with the 1970 Cincinnati Bengals, to make the playoffs after winning no more than one of their first seven games. The Packers? They’re playing awfully well, too, but they’re not nearly as fun of a story as Detroit. What’s most interesting about Green Bay’s four-game winning streak is that they’ve accomplished it without particularly gaudy play from Aaron Rodgers. Given Detroit’s offensive prowess, they might need more from the two-time defending MVP in this one.

Look smart to your friends:

-Amon-Ra St. Brown needs just seven receptions to pass Michael Thomas and Justin Jefferson for the most by a player in their first two seasons in NFL history.

-Rodgers has had an up-and-down year, but he’s still notched his 13th career season with 25+ touchdown passes, the fourth-most in league history.

The pick: Lions 27 Packers 24