NFL Week 17: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Dallas -12.5

So here’s the thing about Dallas’ win over Philadelphia last week; it was nice, and all, but the way Gardner Minshew carved up the Cowboys defense has to be a concern in Big D. Dak Prescott and the offense can more than do their part to win games, but unless the Cowboys figure out a way to get stops on a more regular basis, it’s hard to envision them getting past San Francisco or a Jalen Hurts-led Eagles team. Tennessee is fading at the wrong time, and with Ryan Tannehill done, they don’t have any answers at the quarterback position, as rookie Malik Willis is still way too raw to be counted upon, so Miek Vrabel will turn to Josh Dobbs on Thursday. One good thing for the Titans is that this game is meaningless; their entire season rests on what happens against Jacksonville next week. 

Look smart to your friends:

-CeeDee Lamb has fully come into his own as a top wide receiver. He’s the first Dallas player with 90+ catches, 1,200+ receiving yards and 8+ receiving touchdowns in a single season since Dez Bryant in 2013.

-Derrick Henry is questionable, but if he plays, he’s is on the precipice of history; he needs just 71 yards and two more rushing touchdowns to become the first player in league history with 3 seasons of 1,500+ rushing yards and 15+ rushing touchdowns.

The pick: Cowboys 31 Titans 10

TV: FOX            LINE: Atlanta -3

I give Trace McSorley credit; he was out there battling Tom Brady, but it appears that his performance was not enough to get him a second start. Colt McCoy is set to go for the Cardinals in this one, but the real story with this franchise involves the offseason, and what it looks like, and what decisions get made. Something’s got to give in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray dynamic, and given the fact that Kingsbury wasn’t just guaranteed $160 million, he’s going to be the one to go. Atlanta deserves some sort of prize for being the only NFC South team actually to be eliminated from division title contention. The Falcons can at least get a pressure-free look at Desmond Ridder over these last two games and figure out what they have moving forward. There are some nice building blocks among their skill players, but the defense, in particular, needs a massive infusion of young talent.

Look smart to your friends:

-Greg Dortch has emerged as a nice weapon for the Cardinals; he posted career highs in catches (10) and scrimmage yards (123) against Tampa Bay last week.

-Drake London has been good, but Tyler Allgeier has been Atlanta’s best rookie. He’s looking for his third-straight game with 100+ scrimmage yards, and ranks second among rookies in rushing yards (817) and fourth in scrimmage yards (944).

The pick: Falcons 24 Cardinals 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -6

The Bears had a halftime lead against Buffalo, and then reality – you know, the fact that the Bills have a much better roster than Chicago – set in and set in quickly. And that’s fine, actually! The Bears could certainly use access to the top overall pick because they already have a quarterback and could secure a haul to move down a few spots. There are a lot of needs on the roster, but Justin Fields’ presence means a quick turnaround is very possible. Detroit got steamrolled by the Panthers. There’s no other way to put it, and Dan Campbell knew it. The Panthers ran for 320 yards on their way to a whopping 570 yards of total offense. That’s the most the Lions have given up in a game all season, which is saying something since they’re dead last in the NFL in total defense. The Lions aren’t dead in the water, but they can forget about the playoffs if this defense doesn’t at least partially fix itself.

Look smart to your friends:

-Cole Kmet has been a beneficiary of Justin Fields’ emergence; Kmet is tied for fifth in the league among tight ends with a career-high five touchdown catches this season. He had two touchdown catches against Detroit in Week 10.

-Amon-Ra St. Brown needs just four catches to become the first Lions player with 100+ catches in a season since Calvin Johnson accomplished the feat in 2012.

The pick: Lions 33 Bears 30

TV: CBS            LINE: Kansas City -12.5

Denver is bad enough, and Russell Wilson looks atrocious enough that you have to consider at least cutting him loose after this season, right? Right? I know it’s a $107 million hit, and I know you can’t actually do that as a practical matter, but seriously, how can the Broncos bring the guy back? His teammates can’t stand him, they openly express (righteous) frustration with him on the field, and he…doesn’t seem to care or act as he does. Disaster isn’t nearly a strong enough word, and Nathaniel Hackett just paid for it with his job. Kansas City has to be loving how awful things are going in Denver. If the Broncos were getting even league-average play from Wilson, they’d be a really tough out. As it is, the Chiefs look like they’ll merely have to be better than the Chargers for the foreseeable future to continue their ownership of the AFC West. Patrick Mahomes did more insane things against the Seahawks, particularly a ridiculous touchdown dive, but it should be said that Kansas City didn’t look all that fearsome on offense. Is that boredom or a sign of fallibility?

Look smart to your friends:

-Linebacker Alex Singleton’s 20 tackles last week marked the second time this season that he piled up 20+ tackles in a game, to go along with 21 in Week 6. He is the first player since 2000 with 20+ tackles in multiple games within a single season.

-The Chiefs’ win over Seattle last week made them just the third time in league history with 12+ wins in five straight seasons. Pretty good!

The pick: Chiefs 31 Broncos 21

TV: CBS            LINE: New England -3

With the news that he’s suffered a third concussion – Miami continues to insist the number is two and that what happened earlier this year against the Bills was a back injury – Tua Tagovailoa is out this week and probably for the rest of the year. Miami was already flagging, but now their season rests with whether or not Teddy Bridgewater can steady things these last two weeks. Bridgewater has twice played extensively in relief; the Dolphins have lost both of those games. New England got way behind Joe Burrow and the Bengals, then tried to mount a comeback, only for a late turnover to short-circuit their effort. Mac Jones got more attention for a cheap play on Eli Apple on a nullified fumble return than for anything he did offensively. And that’s the story with him, isn’t it? Just a totally nondescript player in an NFL landscape where the quarterback needs to be a major force multiplier. Do you look at Jones and see a “force multiplier”? I don’t.

Look smart to your friends:

-We know Bill Belichick likes to take away a team’s best option, and as the 1A to Tyreek Hill’s 1, that means a potentially big day for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle has a touchdown reception in each of his three career games against the Patriots.

-Matthew Judon is second in the NFL with 15.5 sacks this season and joined Hall of Famer Andre Tippett as the only New England players to record 15+ sacks in a single season.

The pick: Patriots 21 Dolphins 14

TV: CBS            LINE: New York -6

The Colts are quickly reaching “unwatchable” status if they aren’t there already. You would hope that Jim Irsay is watching just how bad and non-competitive this team is under Jeff Saturday and is making decisions accordingly, but I can’t shake the thought that he wants Saturday for the job and is going to go that route no matter how many people tell him it’s a bad idea. There is certainly some talent scattered around the roster, but Indy needs a quarterback and someone who’s going to come in as a head coach and really re-establish a winning culture. New York almost got a win against the Vikings last week but fell just short. However, the Giants can punch their playoff ticket officially with a win in this game. The G-Men are what they are, which is more deficient when it comes to overall talent than the rest of the teams around them in the standings, but very good in close games. New York is 8-3-1 in one-score contests this season.

Look smart to your friends:

-Sure, Nick Foles had a rough first start with Indianapolis last week, but history suggests that he might be due for a small rebound; Foles has 2+ touchdown passes in each of his three career starts against the Giants.

-Somewhat incredibly, Daniel Jones is one of just three quarterbacks in the league this year, along with Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, to post 3,000+ passing yards, 500+ rushing yards and 5+ rushing touchdowns.

The pick: Giants 20 Colts 16

TV: FOX            LINE: Philadelphia -5.5

Full marks to the Saints. They play their games in a dome, yet they went to Cleveland and, in wind chills approaching minus-40, ground down the Browns. Now, they certainly had a big assist from your garden-variety Browns incompetence, but it was still a gut-check win for a team that can still win the NFC South. New Orleans’ defense was sturdy aside from a Deshaun Watson touchdown run, pitching a shutout in the second half, and Taysom Hill’s versatility showed up in the running game. That said, praising any NFC South team just feels wrong. Let’s move on. Philadelphia has nothing to be ashamed of after last week. The Eagles gave the Cowboys everything they could handle, even without Jalen Hurts, and easily could have come out on top. Lane Johnson’s injury is concerning, and the Eagles still have to sew up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, but they should be able to do it even with Gardner Minshew under center; he wasn’t the issue last week.

Look smart to your friends:

-Alvin Kamara’s name doesn’t come up as much as it used to in discussions of the league’s best all-around backs, but he’s got 1,197 scrimmage yards this year and is the only player in the NFL with 1,100+ scrimmage yards in each of the past six seasons.

-Josh Sweat had a hugely impressive pick-six of Dak Prescott last week, and he’s having a monster year overall for the Eagles. Sweat has a career-high 11 sacks and 15 tackles for loss this season.

The pick: Eagles 30 Saints 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -3

What the hell is going on with Carolina? The NFC South has been such an atrocious pillow fight that even the worst losses have to be qualified with “but they could still win the division,” but Carolina looked done after a very mediocre Steelers team came to Charlotte and hammered them physically. Apparently, whatever Steve Wilks said to his guys in the days after that loss was taken to heart because they bludgeoned the Lions. Tom Brady looked like vomit for the majority of the Buccaneers’ tilt with Arizona, then finally got going late and eventually got Tampa Bay the win in overtime. The Buccaneers’ mission is simple: If they win this game, they win the division. If they lose this game, they need to beat the Falcons in Week 18 and have the Saints beat the Panthers to “seize” the division. Here’s the most relevant thing to know about the division, though: There’s still a chance that the Panthers could win it with a 7-10 record. Frankly, that’s exactly what we deserve.

Look smart to your friends:

-Carolina’s 240 yards rushing in the first half against Detroit was the third-most rushing yards in the first half of a game in the last 40 years.

-Mike Evans’ production has waned of late, but he still needs just 83 yards to become the first player ever with 1,000+ receiving yards in each of his first nine seasons and just the third player ever (Tim Brown, Jerry Rice) with nine straight 1,000+ yard seasons, period.

The pick: Panthers 23 Buccaneers 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Washington -2.5

What a lost season for the Browns. Cleveland’s offense was better than expected with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, but the Browns still gave away too many games, and by the time Deshaun Watson came back, they were between a rock and a hard place. That said, Watson hasn’t offered them much of anything since his return. He’s been uneven in the majority of his action, and it’s clear that he has a lot of work to do to get back to being the player the Browns thought they were acquiring. Washington has major quarterback issues, too. Taylor Heinicke got pulled against the 49ers in favor of Carson Wentz, and now the position is being “re-evaluated,” which is a polite way of saying that Wentz is going to start this week. Heinicke’s numbers weren’t that great, but he certainly seemed to imbue the Commanders with a little swagger. Wentz? He generally imbues teams with the opposite. Perhaps getting to ride to the rescue will change that dynamic for him.

Look smart to your friends:

-Nick Chubb needs just 156 yards over his last two games to become the second player in franchise history, along with Jim Brown, to rush for 1,500+ yards in a season.

-Wentz hardly inspires confidence, as noted above, but he does have 300+ passing yards, 2+ touchdown passes, and a 100+ passer rating in 2 of his 3 home starts this year.

The pick: Commanders 27 Browns 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Jacksonville -4.5

The suits at CBS don’t want you to think about this, but this game means nothing! I hope both teams try their best, have fun, and no one gets hurt. The division will come down to Tennessee and Jacksonville in Week 18. If anything, the Texans have the most at stake in this game. They still haven’t sewn up the first pick in next spring’s draft, as Chicago has proven quite good at losing games themselves. Trevor Lawrence can get to an individual milestone, at least, as he needs just 251 yards to become the third Jacksonville quarterback ever with 4,000+ passing yards in a season. Lawrence’s 108.2 passer rating over the last seven games is the highest in the NFL, dating back to Week 9. The Texans are…playing out the string, but give them credit; they did vanquish the Titans last week and in what seems like an impossibility, have won nine straight games against the Jags.

Look smart to your friends:

-Foyesade Oluokun has been a machine on Jacksonville’s defense this season. His 162 tackles lead the league this season and are tied for the most by a Jacksonville player since 2000. He also had two forced fumbles and two passes defensed last week.

-Davis Mills isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback for the Texans, but he does need a mere 382 yards for his first season with 3,000+ passing yards, which, hey, good for him, right?

The pick: Jaguars 29 Texans 16

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -10

Brock Purdy keeps cooking, the Niners’ defense keeps steamrolling the opposition, and San Francisco continues to have the look of the NFC’s best team and maybe the NFL’s, too. Purdy really has stepped in without missing a beat, and he looked fully in command of what he was doing last week. The Niners aren’t really putting kid gloves on him, either, and he’s rising to the occasion. Until he blinks, this looks like a team without a weakness. Las Vegas is officially in disarray. Derek Carr was bad against the Steelers, and it turns out that that was almost certainly his final game in silver and black. The Raiders benched Carr, who then proposed that he stay away from the team so as not to be a distraction. Jarrett Stidham will get the start in this game, and while I’m sure he’s excited about that, he’s probably less than thrilled about going up against the league’s best-scoring defense and total defense.

Look smart to your friends:

-Purdy joined Dan Marino as the only quarterbacks since 1950 with 2+ touchdown passes and a 100+ passer rating in each of their first three starts.

-Josh Jacobs had a rough game last week against Pittsburgh, but he needs just 92 scrimmage yards to join Marcus Allen as the only players in franchise history with 2,000+ scrimmage yards in a season.

The pick: 49ers 31 Raiders 13

TV: FOX            LINE: New York -1.5

Mike White is back, which means the Jets have a chance of looking like a real offense again. Zach Wilson won’t dress for this game, and I think we can all start to say with some confidence that he’ll never play another game for New York, unless there’s a catastrophic injury situation. The Jets might be in a totally different situation had they pulled the rip cord on Wilson even earlier than they did, but as things stand right now, they aren’t yet dead in the water. New York can’t control its own destiny, but if they win their last two, they’ve got a very good shot to get in. The Geno Smith story is still one of the NFL’s best, maybe the best, period. He’s a deserving Pro Bowler, and he’s the reason the Seahawks aren’t near the bottom of the standings. However, Seattle’s defense continues to betray them, and the offense has also gone largely silent over the last two weeks. Home losses to the Raiders and Panthers and a loss in Germany to the Bucs will haunt Seattle if they miss the postseason.

Look smart to your friends:

-Garrett Wilson still looks like the favorite for offensive rookie of the year, and he has thrived against NFC opponents of late. Wilson is looking for his fourth game in a row against NFC competition with 95+ receiving yards.

-Kenneth Walker needs just 51 scrimmage yards to join Joey Galloway and Curt Warner as the only Seahawks rookies with 1,000+ scrimmage yards.

The pick: Seahawks 28 Jets 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Green Bay -3

The Vikings snuck by the Giants last week, just like they sneak by virtually every team on the schedule. The narrative is out there now about Minnesota; they might be the most-flawed 12-3 team in recent memory, with perhaps the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers deserving some consideration as well. That said, unlike those Steelers, who couldn’t really score, the Vikings can’t really stop anyone. That makes them fallible, yes, but it also means that they’re still dangerous. Kirk Cousins is once again going to have good numbers when all is said and done, and Justin Jefferson deserves MVP consideration. But will any of it matter? Green Bay doesn’t yet have “team you don’t want to see in the playoffs if they get there” status, but they’re starting to sniff around it. Aaron Rodgers has started to turn things around, slowly but surely, and the Packers just have a weirdly carefree look about them. Beating Minnesota would get everyone’s attention and set up a potentially very entertaining showdown with Detroit in Week 18.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Vikings are NFC North champions for the first time since 2017, and their 11 one-score wins this year are the most by any team in a single season in NFL history.

-Dating back to 2017, Aaron Jones is one of just two players – Alvin Kamara is the other – with 40+ rushing touchdowns and 15+ receiving touchdowns.

The pick: Packers 27 Vikings 26

TV: CBS            LINE: LA Chargers -6.5

Well, Baker Mayfield has looked good in two of his three starts for the Rams, which you know is going to get the attention of interested suitors around the league this offseason. He was in total command in the beatdown of Denver last week, one that was particularly shocking because of the Broncos’ defensive reputation entering the game. The Rams never punted, and Mayfield picked apart Denver’s defense to the tune of a 24-of-28 outing. I know Matthew Stafford says he’s not done, but if you’re Sean McVay, isn’t this whole thing a bit intriguing? Congrats to the Chargers, who made the playoffs for the first time since 2018 and didn’t “Charger” everything up for once. Los Angeles was workmanlike in methodically if unspectacularly, dispatching the overmatched Colts. The Chargers should get Joey Bosa back in time for the postseason, which will be a boon for the defense, and if they can even play average football, Justin Herbert’s presence means that Los Angeles will be dangerous in the playoffs.

Look smart to your friends:

-Ageless linebacker Bobby Wagner is the only player in the league this year with 125+ tackles, 5+ sacks, and 5 passes defensed.

-Khalil Mack notched his team-high 8^th sack last week. It is his seventh-career season with 8+ sacks, which is tied for fourth-most among active players.

The pick: Chargers 24 Rams 20

TV: NBC            LINE: Baltimore -2.5

Kenny Pickett finally had his big rookie moment last week, leading the Steelers 76 yards for a game-winning touchdown against the Raiders. That he did it on an emotional night when the team officially retired the late Franco Harris’ number 32 made it even more special. Pickett wasn’t having a great game to that point, but he made two big throws on the run to Pat Freiermuth and threw a dart to George Pickens for the win. Roquan Smith knocked him out of the game last time these teams met; can the rookie get some revenge? Tyler Huntley looks likely to go for Baltimore; as of this writing, Lamar Jackson has missed 10 straight practices. The Ravens are averaging 12 points per game in Huntley’s three starts, but in true Baltimore fashion, have managed to go 2-1 in those games. They might need to do a little more work offensively this time around against a Steelers team that will come in confident after last week.

Look smart to your friends:

-T.J. Watt has feasted against the Ravens in his career; he has 11 sacks and four forced fumbles in 11 career games against the Ravens.

-Marlon Humphrey notched his 13^th-career forced fumble last week, fourth-most among active defensive backs.

The pick: Ravens 17 Steelers 13

TV: ESPN            LINE: Buffalo -1

Buffalo drilled the Bears last week, outclassing Chicago in the second half and cruising to an easy win. Josh Allen accounted for three touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. The Bills have won six in a row, but at no point in that time – with the exception of a very businesslike beating of New England – have they had the look of a conference favorite. That can all change in an instant; if Allen really gets going, no one can stop this team. At this point, though, it’s not a foregone conclusion that he will. Winning out to secure home field would help, however. Joe Burrow might be playing the best football of anyone in the NFL right now, and the Bengals are winners of seven in a row as a result. In those seven wins, Burrow has 17 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 102.6 passer rating. It seems unlikely that he’ll win the MVP award at this point, but if he’s outside the top three in the voting, there’s something seriously wrong. Even though they probably won’t get the conference’s top seed and just lost La’el Collins, Cincy looks very dangerous.

Look smart to your friends:

-In five career starts on Monday Night Football, Allen has 16 touchdowns, one interception and a 119.7 passer rating.

-Von Bell posted his second forced fumble of the season last week, and is bidding for his third straight appearance on Monday Night Football with a takeaway.

The pick: Bills 35 Bengals 31