NFL Week 16 matchups: Your ultimate insiders' guide

SUNDAY

Cincinnati (1-13) at Miami (3-11), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Bengals numbers: According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals own the best chance to earn the No. 1 pick (72.1 percent); the Dolphins have the second-best (11.4 percent) odds. With a loss, the Bengals would clinch the top selection in the 2020 NFL Draft. 

Inside Bengals roster: Rumblings of an A.J. Green franchise tag surfaced this week, a scenario the seven-time Pro Bowler has objected to. The Bengals sinking $18 million-plus into a player who by season’s end will have missed 23 of Cincinnati’s past 24 games is risky, and with Tyler Boyd signed long term (at $10.75 million per year) for a rebuilding team, it’s hard to see Green receiving the extension he seeks. While the Bengals may be plotting a tag-and-trade maneuver – a fascinating move for an old-school organization – the return for a 31-year-old injury-prone wideout may not be what the franchise desires.  

Inside Dolphins numbers: WR DeVante Parker is on a roll, averaging 114.3 yards a game over his past four fully played games. He is averaging 12.1 yards per target (league average 7.3) since Week 9, ninth best among qualified players over that span. 

Inside Dolphins roster: The reported figures in Parker’s extension are strange. With the four-year pact set to tie Parker to the Dolphins through 2023 at a rate around $10 million per season, the team either did well to convince its breakout talent to bypass a big bet on himself for 2021 free agency or found a player willing to take midlevel money now. This may be a nice compromise between a team and a player previously labeled a bust, however. Either way, Miami’s reshuffled front office appears to have done well to entice Parker to buy into its rebuild and skip a potentially promising free-agency trip.

Betting nuggets: The Bengals are 5-8-1 ATS this season; Dolphins are 3-4 ATS at home this season.

Pittsburgh (8-6) at N.Y. Jets (5-9), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Steelers numbers: Mason Rudolph ranks last among qualified quarterbacks in QBR (31.9). His replacement, Devlin Hodges, isn't much better (38.4). Pittsburgh has posted under 200 passing yards in five straight games, its longest streak since Ben Roethlisberger missed five starts in 2015.

Inside Steelers roster: While Pittsburgh’s current quarterback setup remains limited, this season is at least giving James Washington and Diontae Johnson experience for what will be a better-positioned Steelers team next season. Getting their young wideouts seasoning (1,239 combined receiving yards, despite slow starts) serves as an auxiliary benefit during this strange season. Considering the disarray Antonio Brown left Pittsburgh’s receiving corps in, Roethlisberger returning to a fully formed wideout trio in 2020 is another tribute to the Steelers’ unmatched receiver development.

Inside Jets numbers: Since Week 10, Sam Darnold has posted a 96.1 passer rating and ranks as Pro Football Focus' eighth-best quarterback out of 38 qualifiers. He has been pressured on 43.2 percent of his dropbacks since Week 10, the fourth-highest rate over that span.

Inside Jets roster: Although Brian Poole was a signing of ousted GM Mike Maccagnan’s, the former Falcons slot cornerback has done enough to warrant strong extension consideration from new boss Joe Douglas. Just as they are on the offensive line, the Jets may be in for a total rebuild at corner. Trumaine Johnson will be cut, $12 million dead-money hit and all, and Poole and Daryl Roberts are impending free agents. The team should consider extending Poole to check one item off a to-do list that probably includes another notable free-agent contract or high draft pick going to this position.

Betting nuggets: The Jets are 3-4 ATS at home this season; Steelers are 7-5-2 ATS this season

N.Y. Giants (3-11) at Washington (3-11), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Giants numbers: Regardless of whether Eli Manning or Daniel Jones goes under center, the Giants must take better care of the ball if they want to finish strongly; New York's 19.5 percent turnover rate leads the league. The Redskins have taken the ball away at least once in each of their home games.

Inside Giants roster: The winner of Sunday’s game in Washington will be on the outside looking in at a chance to draft Ohio State phenom edge rusher Chase Young No. 2 overall. If the Giants drop behind the Redskins or Dolphins, with the latter set to win a head-to-head draft tiebreaker if only they and Big Blue finished with the same record, New York would be in position to nab Georgia left tackle Andrew Thomas. But with help desperately needed on defense, beating Washington this week would harm New York’s long-term mission.

Inside Redskins numbers: Rookie QB Dwayne Haskins has played better lately, ranking as Pro Football Focus' 12th-best quarterback since Week 11. Haskins has a good on-field rapport with former Ohio State teammate Terry McLaurin, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt and a 97.7 passer rating when throwing to him. 

Inside Redskins roster: It would be interesting to see Washington slide into the No. 2 draft slot. The Redskins used a first-round pick on an edge rusher (Montez Sweat) this year and have longtime sack artist Ryan Kerrigan under contract. It would be difficult for a team to pass on Chase Young, but Washington’s red-alert need (thanks to the Trent Williams debacle) is at left tackle, where Thomas would be a natural fit. See, this matchup between 3-11 teams is teeming with intrigue.

Betting nuggets: The Redskins are 6-8 ATS this season; Giants are 6-8 ATS this season.

Carolina (5-9) at Indianapolis (6-8), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Panthers numbers: QB Kyle Allen ranks 29th of 31 qualifiers in QBR (37.3). Over Carolina's six-game losing streak, Allen has thrown only eight touchdowns and tossed 11 interceptions. (He also has fumbled seven times.) 

Inside Panthers roster: Carolina benching Allen after several rough weeks points to what should have been obvious. Will Grier’s upcoming two starts will almost certainly not be enough to determine if he’s a legitimate starting option, thus spotlighting Cam Newton’s status. If second-year owner David Tepper opts to trade Newton, his veteran-laden team will – barring Greer late-December dominance – be stuck in quarterback purgatory while holding a mid-first-round pick. How the Panthers proceed with Newton will be one of the biggest quarterback dominoes in many years.  

Inside Colts numbers: The defense is disappointing, ranking 21st in points per drive (2.08). The Colts have invested six draft picks in the secondary since 2017, but it has allowed a 102 passer rating, fifth worst in the NFL. 

Inside Colts roster: Indianapolis will enter the offseason in a vastly different roster position, without Andrew Luck, but again flush with cap space. GM Chris Ballard exercised considerable restraint this year, and the Colts have cratered since Jacoby Brissett’s midseason MCL sprain. The Colts are projected to hold a league-high $99 million in cap space. With guard Quenton Nelson and LB Darius Leonard ineligible for their mammoth extensions until at least 2021, would the Colts be better served by devoting some of this cap space to multiple 20-something free agents who could join in-house youngsters in helping Brissett?

Betting nuggets:  The Panthers are 6-7-1 ATS this season; Colts are 3-4 ATS at home this season.

Baltimore (12-2) at Cleveland (6-8), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Ravens numbers: Lamar Jackson has rushed for 1,103 yards, more than any quarterback in NFL history. He is much more efficient this season, with a first-down rate of 40.3 percent versus last season's 33.3. His yards per rush (6.9 versus 4.7) is up, too. 

Inside Ravens roster: Baltimore’s 12-Pro Bowler haul included first-timers Jackson, TE Mark Andrews and OT Ronnie Stanley. Rookie GM Eric DeCosta will be the Executive of the Year frontrunner, but one of his best moves was promoting Greg Roman to offensive coordinator. The former Jim Harbaugh lieutenant will be a coveted commodity on the 2020 coaching carousel, with his rejiggered Jackson offense topping his past work with Colin Kaepernick. Roman’s overhaul of the Joe Flacco era’s staid attack is one of the best OC performances in many years.

Inside Browns numbers: Baker Mayfield ranks 30th of 31 qualifiers in passer rating (78.7), ahead of only Cincinnati's Andy Dalton. Mayfield ranks a more respectable 23rd in QBR (48.2), but turnovers have been the most disappointing aspect of his game. He has the league's second-highest interception rate (3.6 percent).

Inside Browns roster: For years the Browns took flak for bailing on head coaches too soon, but if they reverse course for the clearly overmatched Freddie Kitchens, it will not go over well in Cleveland. Kitchens’ in-game mismanagement, Mayfield’s steep descent and the chaos surrounding this team must prompt GM John Dorsey to admit this mistake this year rather than next. While another HC in 2020 would be Jimmy Haslam’s seventh since he bought the team in 2012, the Browns’ roster talent demands it.

Betting nuggets: The Ravens are 8-5-1 ATS this season; Browns are 3-3-1 ATS at home this season.

Jacksonville (5-9) at Atlanta (5-9), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Jaguars numbers: With Gardner Minshew as the starter, Jacksonville is 5-5 with an average point differential of -1.0. With Nick Foles as the starter, the Jaguars are 4-4 with an average point differential of -18.3. 

Inside Jaguars roster: An arbitrator’s ruling against the Jags, in a matter pertaining to player grievances against the team because of offseason work demands, represents another blow for the Tom Coughlin-led front office – which saw Jalen Ramsey form an exit strategy due largely to issues with the executive VP. The NFLPA’s strongly worded statement indicated 25 percent of player grievances filed in the past two years have been against the Jaguars. With major changes expected for Jacksonville’s front office, this development could well mean the Coughlin reunion will be limited to three years.

Inside Falcons numbers: Since Week 10, the Falcons have allowed the eighth-fewest points per game (19.2) and 10th-lowest passer rating (80). Their pass rush has taken off, ranking sixth in sacks since Week 10 (17) after placing last over the first nine weeks (7). 

Inside Falcons roster: With four wins in six games, including road victories in New Orleans and San Francisco, head coach Dan Quinn may somehow save his job. The Falcons picking up victories over the Jaguars and Buccaneers would give the fifth-year coach a second straight 7-9 season. After eight games, Atlanta was 1-7. Quinn is now 41-37 and the only 2015 HC hire left standing around the league. Owner Arthur Blank will have to weigh the prospect of Quinn’s retention holding the Falcons back against what firing a popular coach (and installing new systems) would do to a veteran team.

Betting nuggets: The Falcons are 6-8 ATS this season;  Jaguars are 4-3 ATS on the road this season

New Orleans (11-3) at Tennessee (8-6), 1 p.m. ET

Inside Saints numbers: The Saints have dominated the field position battle, earning the third-best average starting position on offense (own 31.6-yard line) and the fourth-best on defense (opponent's 26.4-yard line). That is largely a product of their league-low 4.8 percent turnover rate offensively. 

Inside Saints roster: New Orleans now has each of the 2018 Giants’ Week 1 starting cornerbacks on its roster, having claimed Janoris Jenkins to team with Eli Apple and Saints draftee Marshon Lattimore. A midlevel veteran on a high-priced contract that contains no 2020 guaranteed money, the 31-year-old Jenkins joins a Saints secondary that has both nickelback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and seldom-used vet Patrick Robinson dealing with injuries. Apple has also battled inconsistency lately, and his former Giants teammate provides insurance on that front as well.

Inside Titans numbers: Tennessee has allowed a touchdown on 64.3 percent of red-zone drives, third worst in the league. Red-zone efficiency is one of New Orleans' few offensive weaknesses, as the Saints rank 20th in red-zone touchdown rate (54.9 percent). 

Inside Titans roster: Tennessee’s kickers have made matters difficult, making just 8 of 18 field goal attempts. Sixth-year Titan Ryan Succop is 1-for-6 since returning from IR six weeks ago, and the Titans poached Greg Joseph from the Panthers’ practice squad this week. Succop, placed on IR again, signed a five-year, $20 million deal in 2018, but his one field goal in six games has made matters awkward. No team has missed more than half its field goal tries in 32 years, and in a down kicking season across the NFL, the Titans now take center stage in dealing with a borderline crisis on this front.

Betting nuggets: The Saints are 9-5 ATS this season; Titans are 4-3 ATS at home this season.

Oakland (6-8) at L.A. Chargers (5-9), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Raiders numbers: Oakland was top-10 in offensive DVOA through 10 games, but it has averaged just 9.8 points over its four-game losing streak. Since Week 12, the Raiders have scored on a league-low 24.4 percent of drives and have either punted or turned the ball over on 56.1 percent of drives, third worst in the league. 

Inside Raiders roster: The Silver and Black feature uncertainty at many positions – quarterback, wide receiver, most defensive spots – but Tuesday’s Pro Bowl unveiling helped affirm to non-Raider fans the resources the franchise put in up front. Center Rodney Hudson and right tackle Trent Brown – 2015 and ’19 high-priced free agent buys, respectively – are Orlando-bound, and Richie Incognito has returned to his (on the field) consistent ways to help solidify the guard spot opposite reliable Gabe Jackson. When most of the NFL is dealing with O-line issues, the Raiders can focus on other concerns in the offseason.

Inside Chargers numbers: Philip Rivers has been an interception machine over Los Angeles' 1-4 stretch, tossing 11 picks on 173 passes (6.4 percent). With three interceptions over his final two games, Rivers would tie the career-high of 21 that he set in 2016. 

Inside Chargers roster: One of Rivers’ top weapons represents a rare Bolts bright spot. Mike Williams enters Week 16 leading the NFL with 20.7 yards per catch, moving from an auxiliary role to a 1-B option alongside Keenan Allen. Taking over the full-time duties after Tyrell Williams’ Raiders defection,  Williams has 10 35-plus-yard receptions this season and will go into 2020 with a chance to earn a lucrative extension in 2021 – the final year of his rookie contract. With Allen still just 27, though signed only through ‘20, the Chargers have a chance to equip Rivers’ successor with an elite long-term tandem.

Betting nuggets: The Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS this season; Raiders are 6-8 ATS this season.

Detroit (3-10-1) at Denver (5-9), 4:05 p.m. ET

Inside Lions numbers: Yet again, the Lions have a poor run game and a weak defense, as they rank 24th in yards per rush attempt (3.8) and 28th in scoring defense per drive (2.22). Producing pressure is a problem for the Lions, who are ranked 29th in sack rate (4.9 percent). 

Inside Lions roster: Matt Patricia has shown little to inspire belief he will buck the trend of Bill Belichick assistants failing elsewhere, but Lions owner Martha Ford announced she will retain him for a third year. The former Patriots defensive coordinator (9-20-1 as Detroit’s HC) will enter 2020 as a first-coach-fired prop bet frontrunner, with GM Bob Quinn perhaps on the clock too. Quinn’s only playoff berth came in 2016, with mostly predecessor Martin Mayhew’s players, so the Lions’ power pair has much to prove.

Inside Broncos numbers: Although Von Miller averages a career-low in sacks per game (0.54), he still averages5.2 pressures per game, nearly identical to his career average of 5.1. Miller's sustained excellence has led the Broncos to No. 1 in red-zone defense (41.0 percent). 

Inside Broncos roster: John Elway revealed a bit about Denver’s 2020 free-agency plans; the ninth-year executive said he plans to retain breakout safety Justin Simmons. The former third-round pick rates as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 safety and joins longtime cornerback stalwart Chris Harris and starting defensive ends Derek Wolfe and Shelby Harris as key Broncos free agents-to-be. At 26, Simmons is by far the youngest member of this group. Elway has already authorized an $11 million-per-year deal for safety Kareem Jackson, but with that pact’s guarantees done after 2020, Denver could afford a Simmons re-up.

Betting nuggets: The Lions are 5-9 ATS this season; Broncos are 4-2 ATS at home this season

Arizona (4-9-1) at Seattle (11-3), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Cardinals numbers: Against the Browns in Week 15, Kenyan Drake tied a Cardinals record with four rushing touchdowns. Drake could be Arizona's back of the future, as he has averaged 69.5 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per attempt in six games since coming over from Miami. 

Inside Cardinals roster: Interestingly, it would cost the Cards a fraction of what they gave David Johnson to retain Drake. The latter has shown himself to be more explosive this season and could probably be brought back for something close to Tevin Coleman’s two-year, $8.5 million 49ers deal, but Johnson’s contract may impede that. Arizona cannot get out of Johnson’s three-year, $39M accord until 2021. The 28-year-old ex-All-Pro has voiced frustration about his reduced role in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, but GM Steve Keim’s August 2018 extension for Johnson may stop the Cardinals from keeping Drake.

Inside Seahawks numbers: Seattle's defense has been iffy, ranking 21st in net yards per pass attempt (6.6), 25th in the red zone (61.6 percent), and 27th in yards per rush attempt (4.6). The defense has been bailed out by the sixth-best average starting field position (own 26.6-yard line). 

Inside Seahawks roster: Seattle has funneled through its No. 3 options in the passing game this season, going from Will Dissly to Jacob Hollister to Josh Gordon. With Gordon again suspended, this ban perhaps torpedoing the mercurial talent’s NFL career after he’d received many chances, the Seahawks are again in need of a third pass-catcher behind Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. Malik Turner and David Moore, second- and third-year wideouts who were low-end investments, join ex-Cardinal Jaron Brown in possible Gordon replacements. Each has between 220-250 yards receiving, so this will likely be a group effort.

Betting nuggets:  The Cardinals are 8-5-1 ATS this season, Seahawks are 6-6-1.

Dallas (7-7) at Philadelphia (7-7), 4:25 p.m. ET

Inside Cowboys numbers: Dallas' success is in the hands of its offensive line. The Cowboys are 5-2 when rushing for at least five yards per attempt, and 2-5 when rushing for fewer than five yards per attempt. They are 6-4 when Dak Prescott is sacked one or zero times, 1-3 when he is sacked twice or more.

Inside Cowboys roster: Dallas signed former Super Bowl MVP-turned-depth piece Malcolm Smith, revealing how desperate the team is at linebacker going into this pivotal game. Cut by the 49ers and Jaguars this year, Smith has not played a defensive snap all season. The Cowboys have been without Leighton Vander Esch since Week 11 because of a neck injury and saw Joe Thomas go down against the Rams. This makes Dallas’ decision to retain Sean Lee at a reduced rate this offseason look savvy; the injury-prone veteran and Jaylon Smith will continue to do the heavy lifting.  

Inside Eagles numbers: Philadelphia has struggled to move the ball, ranking 20th in yards per drive (30.4). The Eagles have made up for it with elite efficiency in clutch situations, ranking second on third down (47 percent) and fifth in the red zone (66 percent). 

Inside Eagles roster: Philadelphia was without top-tier right tackle Lane Johnson last week, and Doug Pederson said the All-Pro will not practice early this week. The Eagles adjusted their line compared to Johnson’s previous absence, starting veteran Halapoulivaati Vaitai at right tackle instead of first-round pick Andre Dillard. The young talent was previously the top Johnson sub, but the Eagles turned to the Super Bowl starter/versatile fill-in. The Eagles benched Dillard, a career left tackle and still the heir apparent to Jason Peters, during his previous start in place of Johnson.

Betting nuggets: The Cowboys are 8-6 ATS this season; Eagles are 2-5 ATS at home this season.

Kansas City (10-4) at Chicago (7-7), 8:20 p.m. ET

Inside Chiefs numbers: With four interceptions on 426 pass attempts, Patrick Mahomes owns the second-lowest interception rate (0.9 percent), trailing only Aaron Rodgers (0.4). Mahomes has a chance to become the first player to post an interception rate below one percent while throwing for over 300 yards per game. 

Inside Chiefs roster: Having now lost both of Frank Clark’s top defensive end sidekicks – Emmanuel Ogbah and Alex Okafor – Kansas City received a gift from Arizona. The Chiefs’ waiver priority beat the 49ers, Saints and Seahawks, and their Terrell Suggs claim inserts a likely All-Decade-teamer into their pass-rushing rotation. Suggs’ QB hits figure (seven) is down from 2018, but he registered 5.5 sacks and forced four fumbles as Chandler Jones’ top wingman. The future Hall of Famer further strengthens a Chiefs defense that has shown considerable post-bye improvement.

Inside Bears numbers: Mitchell Trubisky has been inaccurate all season, as he ranks 36th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage (70.8 percent). He ranks 30th out of 31 qualifiers in yards per attempt (6.2), ahead of only the Steelers' Mason Rudolph.

Inside Bears roster: Khalil Mack’s pass-rushing partner has not lived up to expectations for most of this season. Week 15 was Leonard Floyd’s seventh 2019 game without a quarterback hit; the 2016 first-round pick has just three sacks despite playing in all 14 Bears games. Floyd, who has not forced a fumble since his rookie year, has a lofty $13.2 million fifth-year option in place for 2020. The Bears can rescind the option free of charge should the former No. 9 overall pick – one of GM Ryan Pace’s three iffy first-round choices in four tries – pass a physical by March 8.

Betting nuggets: The Bears are 3-10 ATS this season; Chiefs are 4-3 ATS at home this season

MONDAY

Green Bay (11-3) at Minnesota (10-4), 8:15 p.m. ET

Inside Packers numbers: The Packers own the league's second-best red-zone offense (68.9) percent. The primary reason is their run game, which has picked up a first down or touchdown on 54.8 percent of run plays inside of the 10-yard line, second best in the league. 

Inside Packers roster: Green Bay’s chances to earn its first playoff bye in five years come in no small part because of its roster’s collective health. With a few exceptions, namely Lane Taylor and Davante Adams, the Packers have enjoyed limited injuries this season. In Week 15, when most teams are reeling with maladies, the Packers deployed 21 of their 22 primary starters. The only Packers starter on IR is Taylor, a guard starter for the past four seasons.

Inside Vikings numbers: Minnesota is well equipped to stop Green Bay's red-zone run game, as the Vikings have allowed the third-lowest rushing conversion rate inside of the 10-yard line (27.3 percent). The Vikings have allowed a league-low five rushing touchdowns and rank fourth in red-zone defense (47.5 percent).

Inside Vikings roster: RB Dalvin Cook’s injury trouble struck Minnesota at a bad time. The 2019 Pro Bowler missed big chunks of his first two seasons, and the chest trouble he’s encountered may shelve him for the Vikings’ most important regular-season game. Alexander Mattison has flashed in Minnesota’s zone-blocking scheme when called upon, but the rookie third-rounder did not practice last week with an ankle ailment. While neither have been ruled out for Monday night, second-year UDFA Mike Boone (56 rushing yards, two TDs in Week 15) would be called upon to deliver in a massive spot.

Betting nuggets: The Packers are 9-5 ATS this season; Vikings are 4-2 ATS at home this season