NFL Week 12 betting guide: 'MNF' caps off the week

MNF: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Total: 39 points

This isn't the most exciting MNF game we've ever seen, but our initial pass has us liking the Colts. Matt Ryan and the offensive line have looked a bit better, and Michael Pittman should have a big game against this vulnerable Steelers backend. The Colts have covered the spread in both games since Jeff Saturday became head coach, we're betting on a third straight cover.

Betting: Colts -2.5

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins

Spread: Miami -13.5

Total: 47 points

The Dolphins have won four straight games, but prior to their last game against Cleveland, all had come by six points or less. These were tight games against lowly opponents, like Chicago, Detroit and Pittsburgh. This is a big spread, and Houston has lost by two touchdowns only once this season. We'll take the points here.

Betting: Texans +13.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: Baltimore -3.5

Total: 43.5 points

Jacksonville has dropped six of their last seven games and a promising start to the season has gone up and smoke. The Ravens have won four straight games and are currently holding on to first in the AFC North. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS as the visitor, we'll bet on that record increasing after a dominating performance Sunday.

Betting: Ravens -3.5

Chicago Bears @ New York Jets

Spread: New York -6

Total: 39 points

ICYMI: Zach Wilson has been benched for this weekend's game. We imagine that has a lot to do with his postgame comments after the Jets mustered just three points in Week 11. It's hard to understand why Mike White is getting six points as the favorite here. We imagine the uncertainty around Justin Fields' shoulder is baked into this price. We'd recommend waiting for more clarity on Fields, but if he's good to go, give us Chicago +6.

Betting: Bears +6, if Fields starts

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

Spread: Cincinnati -2

Total: 42.5 points

This is quietly one of the most important games of the weekend. The Bengals are 6-4 and the Titans are 7-3, and each team has been elite ATS. The Titans own the distinction of the best spread team in the NFL, and we have to take them to cover as home dogs here.

Betting: Titans +2

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders

Spread: Washington -4.5

Total: 41 points

We still haven't fully bought in to Washington, but there's no denying they've looked to be playing with more aggressiveness lately. The Commanders have covered the spread in five of their last six games, and have won the past two games by 24 points. The Falcons just lost Kyle Pitts and haven't looked to be as competitive as they were the first month and a half.

Betting: Commanders -4.5

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

Spread: Denver -2

Total: 36 points

All we know is that we have to bet the under in Broncos games until further notice. This is one of the lowest over/unders of the entire season, and it may very well be the lowest we've seen. Still, Denver is 9-1 to the under, the most profitable betting trend of the year.

Betting: Under 36 points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns

Spread: Tampa Bay -3.5

Total: 42.5 points

This Buccaneers offense has been one of the most dismal units in football, scoring the sixth-fewest points per game on the year. Even when a weak defense is on the other end, Tampa Bay hasn't found a way to pour on points. The Browns have been one of the best over teams thanks to their defensive issues, but the tie in our minds favors the under and Tampa's 8-2 under record.

Betting: Under 42.5 points

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks

Spread: Seattle -3.5

Total: 47.5 points

This over feels a bit rich for our blood. The Raiders are 2-4 to the over when on the road and the Seahawks have gone over in just one of four home games this season. It may be close, but we're taking the under here, we're not seeing any big edges for a certain positional group.

Betting: Under 47.5 points

Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Los Angeles -4

Total: 48 points

When touchdowns line open, keep your eye on Gerald Everett, who will face a Cardinals team allowing the most touchdowns to tight ends this season, with nine. Beyond that look, we like the Chargers to cover this spread. Kyler Murray may be back, but we're not worried. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS and Justin Herbert should be able to have a solid game against this Arizona secondary.

Betting: Chargers -4

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

Spread: San Francisco -9.5

Total: 43 points

The Saints beat the Rams, but that isn't anything to hang your hat on this year. The 49ers have won three straight games, twice by 17+ points. San Francisco is looking like one of the most complete teams in the NFC and should have no issues against this 4-7 New Orleans team.

Betting: 49ers -9.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: Kansas City -15

Total: 43.5 points

Sounds like it's going to be Bryce Perkins at quarterback for the Rams this week, as Los Angeles puts an early bow on a disappointing season. Without Kupp, Stafford and much of an offensive line, this one should go to Kansas City. Still, 15 points is a whole lot in the NFL, and Perkins may be able to make a few plays given the relative lack of tape available on him. We don't feel good about this pick, but it feels right.

Betting: Rams +15

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Total: 46.5 points

The Eagles squeaked by the Colts in Week 11 and haven't looked as dominant as they had for the first few months of the season. However, the run defense tightened up last week, with additions Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh shoring up the defensive line. Running the football is what this Packers team does best, and we're not so optimistic they'll find success there.

Betting: Eagles -6.5