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NFL Week 11 betting: How to play the best and worst NFL teams ATS and over/under 
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Michael Gallup (13) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrate a touchdown. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 11 betting: How to play the best and worst NFL teams ATS and over/under 

By Griffin Carroll  |  Last updated 11/14/23

Another week down in the NFL, another batch of betting results to parse through. Below you can find the best and worst teams against the spread (ATS), and the best teams hitting their overs and unders. We also circle overlaps of interest where applicable for both as you begin your Week 11 NFL prep.

Against the spread betting trends

Best teams ATS

  1. Detroit Lions (7-2)
  2. Philadelphia Eagles (5-2-2)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
  6. Miami Dolphins (6-3)
  7. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
  8. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
  9. Minnesota Vikings (6-3-1)
  10. Cleveland Browns (5-3-1)

If the season ended today, every team above besides the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be in the playoffs. Good teams win, great teams cover. The Eagles and Chiefs will square off on a "Monday Night Football" between two of the best teams in the NFL both overall and against the spread.

Worst teams ATS

  1. Carolina Panthers (1-6-2)
  2. New England Patriots (2-8)
  3. Atlanta Falcons (2-8)
  4. New Orleans Saints (2-7-1)
  5. New York Giants (2-7-1)
  6. Buffalo Bills (3-7)
  7. Denver Broncos (3-5-1)
  8. Chicago Bears (3-5-2)

The biggest surprise on this list remains Buffalo, but besides that, we've got a ton of basement-dwellers on our hands when it comes to the worst teams to back this season. The NFC South continues failing to cover the spread to stake their claim as the worst division in football.

Overlaps in Week 11

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-10) — Detroit's offense is firing on all cylinders while their defense leaves something to be desired at this juncture. That combination shouldn't be an issue against a Bears team lacking in both offensive and defensive quality. Keep an eye on the status of Justin Fields; nothing can disrupt a double-digit spread faster than a mobile QB.

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers — The Cowboys just delivered ATS as 17-point favorites, albeit at home. Can they do it again on the road against a horrible Panthers team? Dak Prescott has been fantastic over the past few weeks, but the Cowboys really need to unlock their run game. This offers them a great chance to do so, Carolina hasn't been able to slow down anyone on the ground.

Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos — Why in the world are the Minnesota Vikings opening as underdogs to the Denver Broncos? Joshua Dobbs has been awesome in this offense, and it sounds as if Justin Jefferson is trending towards playing in Week 11.

Over/under betting trends

Best teams vs. the over

  1. Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
  2. Indianapolis Colts (6-4)
  3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
  4. Chicago Bears (6-4)

Only four teams are hitting the over at a rate of 60% or better. As we touched on last week, this season has seen scoring fall across the board, with that no more evident than when looking at the over/under betting trends. There are five additional teams at 5-4 to the over: Miami, San Francisco, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Detroit.

Best teams vs. the under

  1. New York Giants (8-2)
  2. Las Vegas Raiders (8-2)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-2)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
  6. Tennessee Titans (7-2)
  7. Minnesota Vikings (7-3)
  8. New England Patriots (7-3)
  9. New Orleans Saints (7-3)
  10. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
  11. Carolina Panthers, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Nearly half the NFL finds themselves hitting the under at a 67% clip or better through 10 weeks. Will we ever learn that we need to start attacking the unders more frequently in the total market? It's no surprise to see the Giants and Raiders top this list, nor is it surprising to see offenses like New England, New Orleans and Carolina reside above.

Kansas City's placement here is a testament to its defensive strength, with perhaps a tad of the public overvaluing how many points the Chiefs will put on the board.

Overlaps in Week 11

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (40 points) — Combined, these two teams have gone 13-6 to the under this season, which includes a Week 1 matchup that resulted in just 38 total points. Three straight meetings between these AFC East rivals has gone under 40 points. It may be best to lock in an under now based on these trends.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 

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