Green Bay Packers tight end Luke Musgrave (88). Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL 'TNF' Week 4 TD props: Targeting a tight end touchdown

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/27/23

This Thursday night game between Green Bay and Detroit could have massive ramifications down the road. Minnesota and Chicago are 0-3, while the Packers and Lions sit atop the NFC North at 2-1. Not only can we find some bets of value here, but this just seems like it's going to be a wildly entertaining game.

You know what makes it more entertaining? Winning a touchdown bet. I've got my favorite.

.5u: Luke Musgrave: +300 FanDuel

Green Bay tight end Luke Musgrave has been a wildly popular prop target this week. I was seeing his name floating out there as early as Tuesday morning, and once I got through my preliminary Week 4 checks, it became quite clear why.

Take a look at some of the defenses allowing the most receptions to each position that I compile each Wednesday. Detroit tops the board with 8.3 receptions allowed per game to TEs, and that volume has understandably led to them allowing the most yards to the position through three weeks.

Many are on Musgrave's yards, and I'm thinking about going right for his receptions myself. I think the rookie tight end can find the end zone as well, and it's seeming like a fun way to ride the wave of the Musgrave love this week.

A big reason for Detroit's vulnerability to tight ends is the injury to safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. I see no reason why these chunk gains tight ends are grabbing against the Lions can't translate to some touchdowns sooner before later.

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Last season, the Lions allowed the second-most touchdowns to TEs, and they've let up four passing touchdowns on the year.

Musgrave hardly leaves the field on passing plays, or at all, and he's seen three red zone targets over the past two games. He has yet to find the end zone, but against a soft opponent and with a steady role, this seems like a beautiful time to give him a shot.

Year-to-date: 5-12 (-0.25u)

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