NFL MVP Odds 2022: Is Jalen Hurts Overvalued in MVP Race?

We’re at the midway point of the NFL season as Week 9 kicks off with a number of surprising headlines across the league. Arguably, the top storyline has been the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles, who enter Thursday Night Football as 14-point favorites. At the forefront of the Eagles’ 7-0 record is quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Can the third-year quarterback win the NFL MVP race? We’re going to dive into the impact Hurts has had and whether he’s a strong betting option or overvalued in the race.

NFL MVP Odds Heading Into Week 9

Let’s take a look at the 10 players with the best odds of winning the NFL MVP Award entering Week 9, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to read our analysis of all NFL and CFB sports betting.

• Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+120)
• Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+350)
• Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+400)
• Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
• Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+1600)
• Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+2800)
• Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+2800)
• Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+4000)
• Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+5000)
• Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+5000)

Can Jalen Hurts Win MVP in 2022?

I often say there are multiple factors that go into a successful MVP campaign in the NFL. The first is obviously position, as this has become exclusively a quarterback award since Adrian Peterson was the lone non-quarterback to win the award between 2007 and 2021. The other two things are elite production and a great storyline.

The production metric has been redefined in recent years as more mobile quarterbacks have entered the NFL. Lamar Jackson’s MVP-winning season in 2019 set the bar high for dual threats who may not have the most passing yards. He led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns and added 1,206 rushing yards and seven touchdowns to overcome his passing yard total.

Jackson was also incredibly likable as a former Heisman Trophy winner who was an explosive and entertaining playmaker. He raised the bar for what we expected from the QB position. And he may be the single biggest reason for why Hurts will have a hard time winning MVP in 2022.

Hurts’ own development since his freshman year at Alabama has been remarkable. He entered 2022 in a prove-it season as the rest of the Eagles’ roster appeared ready to make a deep playoff run. But he was mostly an empty-calorie fantasy football player in 2021, producing mediocre numbers that barely affected Philadelphia’s win total.

With the Eagles at 7-0 and boasting a top-four offense and defense entering Week 9, Hurts has nailed the storyline part of the MVP discussion. He was a national championship winner at Alabama and finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting at Oklahoma in 2019. Hurts beat out Carson Wentz to become the starter in Philadelphia, then helped revolutionize the Eagles’ offense in 2021 as head coach Nick Sirianni overhauled the offense around his skill set.

There’s no question Hurts is helping the Eagles now. He’s completed 67% of his passes for 1,799 yards, 10 touchdowns, and only two interceptions. Hurts has added a solid 43.3 rushing yards per game and six touchdowns on the ground. But is that enough to land him second in the MVP race?

His stats certainly don’t compare to Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, who have similar completion rates, almost 400 more yards, and nearly double the passing touchdowns. Hurts’ rushing impact is nice, but he’s also behind Jackson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, and Allen among quarterbacks. His production is sorely lacking.

There’s no question Hurts has at least proven himself as the guy in Philadelphia for the time being, and he’s the right triggerman for this style of offense. But unless Hurts’ passing touchdown numbers jump significantly and he becomes a more dominant runner, he’s arguably the worst MVP value on the board.

Hurts would need to get close to Jackson’s 2019 totals in order to overcome the fierce competition from two Hall of Fame-caliber talents in Allen and Mahomes. That, to me, means he should be closer to Burrow’s MVP odds than either of the other true favorites.