Initial stacks, 30 visits, secret workouts and the final deciding group - a former power broker explains the QB selection process

In 12 days, in likelihood, the New England Patriots will be taking their latest swing at finding a franchise quarterback post-Tom Brady with the third overall pick in the 2024 draft.

There have been a ton of varying reports about which quarterback the Patriots are going to take, what they like, what they don't like, talks about a bag, what kind of coffee Eliot Wolf likes - everything under sun. It's only going to get worse from here.

I just want draft day to get here, the Patriots to pick their guys, and then let's see how they do.

But, this is not a position the Patriots have found themselves in, basically ever. The third overall pick, a glaring need at quarterback and three or four pretty good prospects? Doesn't happen very often.

And it's been a while since I've covered a team in a similar position - the early 2000s Dolphins after Dan Marino. So I'm a bit out of practice/spoiled on the QB hunt front. So I reached into my Rolodex (do they still make those?) and found the best guy I could think of: he's worn just about every hat over two decades, including head coach, offensive coordinator, QB coach and personnel power broker, and has a pretty good track record at the position. No, I'm not going to disclose who it is, but I think you're going to take a lot out of what we talked about - specifically, the process a team goes through to find their next QB through the dizzying maze of all-star games, combine interviews, pro days, 30 visits and other things.

So, on with the show...

So where are things after the college/pro seasons?

There's an initial stack, all via the personnel department. This is based on just the initial film review. Every organization will have a prerequisite of games viewed for the player to be placed on the board. This has no input on in-person interviews, factors nothing in about the player's personality.

Could the grade change from that point on? Yes, and it many cases it does. The grade will not change dramatically.

"Let's say initially, they had Drake Maye behind Jayden Daniels," the source said. "Is that guaranteed to stay that way? No. If they're close enough, then there's a chance that they're going to rearrange that stack.

"The initial stacking will be based on an initial viewing from a handful of different people, and they will have like four or five people that will have graded the player. So Eliot (Wolf) might have put in an initial grade, the area scout might have put in an initial grade, the director might have put in an initial grade, and the crosschecker, he'll have an initial grade. So there'll be more than just one guy. They probably won't all grade exactly the same, but it'll be close. And that grade is based on skill only. Like, what did you see from the player?

"And then what will happen is once the season ends, you've kind of seen everybody like, at least once, so you kind of get an idea of everybody. Then you start working through like let's call it the specifics. More game views, more situational views. Let's watch 'em in two minutes. Let's watch 'em in when they're behind, let's watch after a bad play. And you start to really hone in on what is this guy? Does this guy have right stuff or not?

"That's where ... the coaches would not have seen them at all. There would have been no views from the coaches at all. And so the coaches will start watching now. The coaches depending on where you're at, which organization you're at, the coaches, a lot of coaches won't even be involved in the grading system. Because it's not really their life. So to make them get into the intricacies of a grading scale ... Eliot changed the grading system. So he might have the coach do some, I don't really know. The coaches will have their opinion on certain things. And there's some weight given to that, obviously."

Senior Bowl/Combine meetings

Michael Penix and Bo Nix, among the top QBs, were at the Senior Bowl and the Patriots had a full contingent of the front office there (the offensive coaching staff was still being put together.

The Senior Bowl changed the interview process for the QBs this year where, instead of 15-20 minutes alone with a team like every other position, the QBs met with a pod of four teams from similar trees for 45 minutes using video and a whiteboard. Is that enough time to say yay or nay on a prospect at that point?

"Definitely not," said the source. "That's not enough."

And that goes for the combine interviews as well, which are only 15 minutes.

"Let's say you're the head of Microsoft and you were hiring a VP that will make $10 million, are you basing that off a 45-minute conversation, let alone 15 minutes?" he said. "Look, we're talking about a quarterback here. We're not talking about a backup defensive tackle. This player, especially now, is going to be paid a lot immediately. This player is going to have a lot on his plate. This player is going to have an immense amount of expectations put on his shoulders. And this player, if you get it right, your life changes. If you get it wrong, your life changes the other direction. So to me, 45 minutes? Forget that. Yeah, that's great. That's an impression but you're just scratching the surface."

Pro days

The dinner at some point is nice, but it's similar to the other meetings. It's a reference point, but nothing definitive.

"You're not learning anything at the (expletive) pro day, and we don't need to work the goddamn guy out again," he said.

"What you're trying to find out there is like, is this guy an immature p----? Is he distracted? Is he quiet and does he have any personality to him? Do you think he's a leader? Is he smart? You're just basically, 'How does he handle himself?'"

Dialing in on a prospect

So how do you figure out which QB you want?

"We're either going to their school or they're coming to us," said the coach, who went to one prospect's hometown (you can do a workout within X miles of their hometown). "I want to spend six or eight hours with this kid. I want to teach him some stuff. I want him to then give it back to me like he learned it. I want him to ask questions. All that stuff.

"On the 30 visit, everyone does it differently. One team treated it like a (expletive) recruiting visit. Another team I worked for treated them like they're in rookie minicamp when they walk through the door. So it's like it's a full day of teaching, learning them asking questions. A little half-a-- walkthrough. They have to call the play in the huddle, correct somebody if the receiver is in the wrong formation. Put pressure on them and try to see what they can handle.

"To me, that's what you want to find out. They're gonna make some mistakes. That's fine, but like, if the guy is a (expletive) disaster then, you know you got a problem. What that means is when he comes in there for the actual rookie minicamp, he's gonna be a (expletive) disaster then too."

In a recent draft year, the OC recounted one experience with multiple first-round QBs. He was at the pro day and had dinner with the QB the night before. The coach went and spent time with him again on another occasion. Then the QB was brought back on a 30 visit. 

"I've always had this impression: if you spend an hour with somebody, they can fake it," he said. "If you spend six to eight to 10 to 12 hours with somebody, you're gonna start to see some of who they really are. You know, is he getting tired and frustrated? Is he immature? Does he have any stamina? You know, is he on his phone all the time and worried about that s---? Anybody can fake it for 20 minutes like in those combine interviews. It's basically just bulls--- because they're trained to do the right thing, so they do. If they smoke marijuana, they admit it. If they got suspended for something they shouldn't have done, they tell you. And then the horn blows (for the end of the interview), and you're like, 'What did we really learn there?' 

Each team can do up to three Zooms with a draft prospect.

"They're important," he said.

Does it say anything that, reportedly, Penix and Nix were not 30 visits (through 4/17) for the Patriots?

Does it mean the Patriots don't like them?

"It definitely could," he said. "What that would tell me is they're planning on drafting one in the first round, and it's not Penix or Nix, and they're not going to draft Penix or Nix right behind (a guy they drafted at another position). So why are we going to waste a 30 visit on two guys that we're not going to draft? Let's say they were thinking like, we're gonna get the tackle from Notre Dame or the receiver from Ohio State or whatever at three. Then do I think they would have Penix and Nix in? Probably unless they basically have crossed them off and said, like, 'Bo Nix isn't good enough,' which I know there's definitely some teams that have said he's not a first-round player at all. And he may not be a starter."

What about these intense private workouts (through 4/24) that have been reported for some, like Penix with the Vikings and Falcons?

"Some of these players are being told by their agents not to do private workouts. They're basically saying, 'Look, do either the combine or do your pro day and then stand on that. Because what they what they're saying is, 'Don't let them have any more information than they need.'

"The difference is if you're a quarterback, if you're Penix and the Vikings or the Falcons or somebody else says I'm interested in you and they both need a quarterback, like ... you're doing it.

"And that's way better for each team individually than the pro day. The pro day, you're not running, they are. So you have no control over the routes they're running. You have no control over putting the guy through any drills. You have no control for how much he's under center, how much he's in the gun. You have no control for how much he's on the move. You don't have any control over any of that. In your own private workout, you've got everything."

Patriots have been inclusive in this process, a lot of full staff viewing of film and airing of opinions. When does this decision-making group shrink to just a few?

"Very soon," he said. "Then it will be just the people who need to know. I could see it being Eliot, Alonzo (Highsmith), Jerod and the Krafts, at some point. I'll be interested to see if Matt Groh is in the final group. Pat Stewart would be another good one to have. But you don't want too many. I could also see Eliot and Alonzo going off together to make the final tweaks. Now that I think of it, that makes sense. They didn't come this far in their careers together to blow this draft.

"This is when they will make the final tweaks to the vertical stack. That's why all this, 'I know the Patriots have X at the top of their board' is complete BS. That was on the board for all to see. Now the board will change again. That could have just been a fake out for that reason. Now Eliot, Alonzo and Jerod will make those final changes, and no one else will know. I hope Jerod can keep his big mouth closed. That hasn't gone well to this point.

"The horizontal stack will also now happen, comparing the positions. Basically, would we take the fifth QB over the second OT, or third WR? Those are the discussions happening as well with the final group that decides everything.

So what's most important?

"I would say ultimately it's two things for me: it's tape and the time you spend with the person, whether that's you go and see him at their school, you have him there on the 30 visit. To me, you have to spend time with them, and you have to watch plenty of tape. I watched 21 games of (first-round QB)? Like I said, this is not the backup defensive tackle where you watch four or five games and you're like, 'Okay, I'm good on this guy.' This is different. Like you better get it right.

"If I was doing this evaluation, I would be doing the same thing for each one of them. Watch a s--- ton of tape, spend the same amount of total time, would use the same process. Find out all the same information.

"The other thing that's you gotta make sure you factor in and it's not some small thing to me is, what are you doing with this guy? Eliot's not coaching him. Eliot's not putting the offense in. Jerod's not coaching him. Jerod's not putting the offense in. One of the most important parts of this equation is that: what are you doing with the guy? They might be a great staff. I'm hoping that they, that's what I hope. But they need to have a say in this and maybe they're not making the final choice, but they need to be included in this and what they're going to do with the player is no small part of this. 

"If you put a guy in a position to be successful, then that's a big part of this equation.  I don't know what they're gonna do. Are they gonna be willing to be flexible? McAdoo runs one offense. I don't know what Van Pelt's offense is. Are they gonna run Jayden Daniels? Are they going to be in the shotgun all the time? If it's JJ McCarthy, are you just going to run more of a conventional offense like he did at Michigan? I think you can do that. I mean, if it's Drake Maye, what does Drake Maye need? From the ground up, he needs to learn how to play and you've got to be careful with how much you put on him and you got to let him throw a deep some and all that stuff. That's definitely part of this, like, why do they succeed? Part of it is they don't just succeed just because they go somewhere and they're gonna succeed no matter what. I just don't believe that. Like Justin Herbert. He's had statistics but they can't win. Like, do you think that's because Herbert sucks? No. They need to do the right things around this guy. So I know how much that's weighing into this."

Where are mistakes made?

"Here's the biggest thing for me. There's not five or six QBs in a draft. There's just not. There never will be. That's you and me in the desert. We haven't had a drink in two days. And we see water and we're just going to drink the sand. That's what this is, every year to me now. If you like more than a couple of these guys, (think they) could be your franchise quarterback, I just disagree with that. I think you've got beer goggles on. Like is that possible that that happens? I mean, yeah, I guess so. But look over the look over the last 30 years. How many drafts produced five or six guys that are their franchise's long-term guy? Maybe one 

"You want to try to get to an understanding of how people are seeing it, a really crystal clear picture of what we're going to do with the player and how he fits in for us and how we're going to train him and how we're going to bring him along and what we're going to ask him to do, and you got to get to a consensus on this pick. Because if they're broken on this thing, and they're just, 'Go with Eliot, like you just said,' I'm telling you, that's (expletive) Mitch Trubisky. (The coaches) didn't want to Trubisky. Eliot's gonna really focus on the football player, whereas a lot of these other GMs (and they aren't deserving of the title) are going to pick the guy they feel like they can win the press conference with and all the bulls--- and then blame the coaches when it doesn't work, if it doesn't work.

"If they're in alignment, they got a chance. If they're not, I mean, you can forget about it. Because it's this mess. There's nothing worse than getting a quarterback in a system with some coaches who didn't want him. Yeah. I mean, it's (expletive) Malik Willis, it's Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh. It's not a good thing. It never works out. That's Trey Lance in San Francisco. I mean, it's just not a good idea."