Four potential AFC challengers for Patriots

Tunison: We've seen this kind of dominance out of the Pats before, and at the very least it usually results in a conference championship. To their credit, the Ravens have been one of the few teams with even a modicum of success against New England in the John Harbaugh era. He's knocked off the Patriots twice in the playoffs at New England, something no one else can say.

Obviously, beating the Patriots in playoff games following the 2009 and 2012 seasons doesn't have much bearing on what happens in 2019, at least in terms of match-ups on the field. That said, with how many times we've seen coaches get decision-making brainlock against the Pats when they have them on the ropes, it is somewhat comforting to know there's a coach with at least a little bit of a track record avoiding such a fate.

We're going to find out real soon how they match up, as Baltimore (5-2) plays New England in Week 9. At least that will give the Ravens a bye week to prepare, and to watch how the Patriots incorporate their latest addition to the offense, receiver Mohamed Sanu. Given that Sanu is a former quarterback who has often been used in that capacity for trick plays in the NFL, and knowing how fond the Patriots are of pulling off such plays, it's only a matter of time until some opponent is victimized by a 50-yard Sanu-to-Julian Edelman touchdown that puts a dagger in a close game.

My main concern with the Ravens is, while Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-caliber season through the first seven weeks, he's still only in his second year in the NFL. Given how much the Pats' stifling defense fooled the Jets' Sam Darnold on Monday night, it has to be worrisome for any young quarterback to think he must put up 30 points on that defense to have any chance to win. If you take away a monster Week 1 performance against Miami (17-for-20, 324 yards, five TDs), Jackson's passing stats have only been so-so in 2019. Obviously the run is a big weapon for him, but if the Pats know how to do anything, it's to remove the opponent's biggest strength.

Mueller: The point about Harbaugh not getting decision-making brainlock is well-taken. He might be the only AFC coach not cowed at all by Belichick, and he’s always seemed to have his team ready to do what it does best against New England. I suspect he’ll cook up ways to make Jackson’s running a factor in the Week 9 showdown.  

That game should tell us plenty about Baltimore overall. If the Ravens stay close or spring the upset, they might vault over Indy as the chief contender to New England. Given the beating they took from Cleveland, and the fact that they were a JuJu Smith-Schuster fumble away from likely losing to Pittsburgh, I have a hard time buying them just yet. 

What I’m torn about is whether the Patriots are so dominant right now that they’ve rendered the rest of the AFC irrelevant, or whether the dominance in and of itself is compelling. The fact their wins have come against weak competition provides a breeding ground for the idea that their defense is somehow overrated. New England’s schedule stiffens considerably down the stretch. As much as I’m interested in seeing that play out, there’s part of me that thinks they are every bit as good as they appear, and that the rest of the conference might as well let the CPU simulate the rest of their games a la Madden. 

Having an undisputed king of the mountain absolutely makes the search for a worthy challenger interesting in and of itself, but in this case, part of me wonders if football fans and pundits everywhere are tying themselves in knots looking for something that doesn’t exist. 

Even as I say that, there’s part of me that says, “We’ve barely mentioned the Chiefs, and they were one neutral zone infraction away from beating New England last year.” Maybe the best answer here is the obvious one: If Mahomes’ ankle and knee both get better while he’s out, as long as the Chiefs can tread water, they’ll rise right back to the top and deliver an epic AFC Championship Game showdown.

Tunison: This seems like a repeat of 2007 in some ways. Early in that season, the Patriots were rolling through everybody, seemingly incapable of even having a close game. By the end of the regular season, they had a few scares. Week 7 is still too early to know who is going to figure out the best version of themselves toward the end of the regular season. The standings at the moment likely won't reflect that outside a few obvious standouts.

I agree there's a sizeable gap between the Pats and everyone else now. With Mahomes at full strength, the Chiefs are still only just a maybe. The Denver game notwithstanding, the defense seems to have taken a step back; meanwhile, the Pats' defense looks even more imposing than the unit that befuddled the Rams in the Super Bowl eight months ago.

I know we've overlooked the Bills (5-1) because, well, they're the Bills and they've already lost to the Pats in Buffalo. Looking at their cupcake schedule, though, I think there's a fair chance they could have the best record in the conference behind New England and still end up as a wild card. In some ways, that's encouraging because I think they could probably take the worst division winner in the conference, likely whoever emerges from the AFC South. 

If the other division winner won in the wild-card round, that would mean a third game against New England in the divisional round. One of the frustrating ways New England has good fortune is that it always seems to draw the most hobbled, overmatched teams following its playoff bye, and Buffalo advancing could be a rare exception. We all have fond memories of when the Jets shocked the world and knocked them off in Foxborough in the playoffs in 2010. That can be a herculean effort, when you can't say Josh Allen is any worse than Mark Sanchez.