Five NFL free-agency signings teams could regret

The legal tampering period for NFL free agency opened on Monday. A number of stars decided to find new homes, and even more noteworthy agreements were reached. While teams are surely optimistic about their additions, there are always deals that will be viewed as mistakes in retrospect.

With that in mind, here are five deals agreed-upon during the legal tampering period that teams could regret in the future.

QB Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180M deal with the Atlanta Falcons

On paper, Cousins and the Falcons are an ideal match. Atlanta has been a quarterback away from being a perennial contender for the NFC South crown since Matt Ryan left town, and when healthy, Cousins is a top-12 signal-caller. However, shelling out a four-year, $180M contract for a soon-to-be 36-year-old coming off a season-ending Achilles injury is obviously a massive risk, regardless of the fact that Cousins was on top of his game in 2023. 

Assuming Cousins is at full strength in 2024, Atlanta should be firmly in the mix to win the division title. However, that's probably the best-case scenario for this signing. It's unlikely the Falcons will be a Super Bowl contender with Cousins this season, and there's no telling how he'll look by the time the second half of his contract rolls around.

RB D’Andre Swift’s three-year, $24.5M deal with the Chicago Bears 

The Bears moved quickly to sign Swift after he rushed for a career-high 1,049 yards with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023. Although his receiving prowess adds to his value, it's unlikely that Swift, who has missed time with injuries during all four of his NFL seasons, will replicate the same rushing success with Chicago's 23rd-ranked run-blocking unit. For comparison, Philadelphia was the NFL's third-best run-blocking team last season, per Pro Football Focus.

While they're different players in different situations, it's hard not to look at the struggles Miles Sanders endured in Carolina after leaving Philadelphia last offseason as a warning sign for Swift's outlook. Ultimately, Chicago could regret not just expanding Khalil Herbert's and Roschon Johnson's respective workloads, adding a running back in the middle rounds of April's draft or simply waiting to sign a veteran at a lower price.  

DL Leonard Williams’ three-year, $64.5M deal with the Seattle Seahawks

Seattle having to spend a 2024 second-round pick and a 2025 fifth-round pick to acquire Williams at the trade deadline gave him considerable leverage in his negotiations. Despite posting four sacks in 10 games and emerging as a key contributor for the Seahawks defense, Williams' resume raises questions about whether he'll live up to his new deal.

The 29-year-old is an average pass-rusher, racking up more than 6.5 sacks in a season just once in his career (11.5 in 2020), and his once-renowned run-stopping ability has declined. Williams' 24 run stops last season were tied for the 16th-most in the NFL among qualified defensive tackles, but his 6.4% run stop percentage ranked 47th. It's difficult to imagine Williams significantly improving on those numbers, making his $21.5M annual salary all the more concerning.

WR Gabe Davis’ three-year, $39M deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars

An extension for Calvin Ridley would reduce the risk of Davis' deal, but not by much. A field-stretching deep threat, Davis' Bills tenure was marred by inconsistent play and dropped passes.

Even though Davis amassed the second-most receiving yards of his career in 2023 (746), he played in four games where he didn't catch a pass and appeared in three other contests where he didn't gain more than 21 yards. That type of production doesn't justify the 24th-highest annual salary at the position, especially if he couldn't make things work with a superior quarterback in Buffalo's Josh Allen. 

LG John Simpson’s two-year deal worth up to $18M with the New York Jets

Bolstering an offensive line that surrendered the fourth-most sacks in 2023 (64) was the Jets' top priority entering the legal tampering period. Adding a guard who allowed only one sack last season and comes with playoff experience sounds promising, but Simpson might not be the solution to New York's O-line woes.

According to PFF, Simpson was the second-most penalized guard in the NFL during the 2023 regular season (11) and was called for holding seven times. Additionally, the former Raven isn't a particularly effective run-blocker, ranking as PFF's 49th-highest-graded guard in that department among 79 qualified players (57.2).