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Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is projected to be a top-tier quarterback in fantasy football for 2018. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Fantasy football 2017 preview: Tiers & rankings

Originally posted on RealGM | By Neema Hodjat | Last updated 8/24/17

Your fantasy football draft is quickly approaching and you will need to use our positional tier approach and overall ranking system to ace your league. Also make sure you listen to our companion podcast to go with our preview.

Quarterbacks

Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees

Tier 2: Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Ben Roethlisberger, Marcus Mariota

Tier 3: Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, Dak Prescott, Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton

Tier 4: Carson Wentz, Carson Palmer, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles

Analysis:

The league’s three best real life QBs comprise tier 1 this year - no additional explanation needed. The quality doesn’t drop much even as we get into a very deep tier 2 group, and arguably tier 3. Tier 2 provides some options with massive upside, along with familiar, safe veterans. The tier 3 group lacks the ceiling of the tier 2 options, but could serve as serviceable starters if needed.

With incredible depth at the position, I strongly suggest that you wait to the QB situation until the mid to later rounds. Grab a QB from the back end of tier 2, and another from tier 2 or 3, and go with matchups from there. No need to spend early draft capital to address the QB position, unless your league starts two QBs.

Finally, quick hits on two QBs who I expect will outperform their ADP, and are therefore reflected higher in my rankings:

Jameis Winston – The Bucs QB has passing weapons galore, with receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, and tight ends Cameron Brate and rookie OJ Howard. Winston will throw 15-20 interceptions (less of a problem for fantasy than for reali life), but he’ll be chucking the ball around frequently. It would be no surprise to see him post mid-level QB1 fantasy numbers.

Marcus Mariota – The Titans were threatening to reach the playoffs last year, up until Mariota broke his leg in week 16. Reports suggest Mariota is healthy and ready to go. The young QB passed for more than 3,400 yards, with a 26 to 9 TD/INT ratio, with more than 300 yards rushing to boot. Look for Mariota to expand on those numbers, with another year under his belt and improved weapons (hello Corey Davis and Eric Decker) at his disposal in the passing game.

And two QBs who I consider to be overdrafted with respect to their ADP, and are therefore reflected lower in my rankings:

Ben Roethlisberger – Roethlisberger teases historic statistical seasons, and certainly has the ability to deliver monster numbers. However, his name has outpaced his stats the last few years. Roethlisberger has struggled on the road the last two seasons (16 TDs to 19 INTs), and he’s frequently been nursing injuries. I see him as a perfectly fine back end QB1, just not in the elite group of fantasy QBs.

Dak Prescott – The Cowboys surprised the NFL world in large part due to Dak Prescott’s sensational rookie year. While I don’t think last year was a fluke, I’m not sure that I see improved stats in the offing this season. The Cowboys face a tougher slate of defenses this year, and teams have a better idea of how to scheme against Prescott. So for fantasy purposes, I’m just not as high on him as others.

Running Backs

Tier 1: David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell

Tier 2: LeSean McCoy, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Devonta Freeman, DeMarco Murray, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley

Tier 3: Isaiah Crowell, Marshawn Lynch, Ty Montgomery, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Mike Gillislee, Christian McCaffrey

Tier 4: Ezekiel Elliott, Lamar Miller, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, CJ Anderson, Paul Perkins, Frank Gore, Spencer Ware

Tier 5: Bilal Powell, Thomas Rawls, Tevin Coleman, Ameer Abdullah, Robert Kelley, Adrian Peterson, Danny Woodhead, Terrance West, Doug Martin, Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, Eddie Lacy, Jacquizz Rodgers, Darren McFadden, LeGarrette Blount, Matt Forte

Tier 6: Rex Burkhead, CJ Prosise, Duke Johnson, Theo Riddick, Jonathan Stewart, Gio Bernard, Darren Sproles, Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, Jamaal Charles, D’Onta Foreman, Devontae Booker, Joe Williams, Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams

Analysis:

The tier 1 RBs are my top 2 overall picks this year (would have been top 3 if not for Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension), with the tier 2 guys also worthy to go in the back half of the first round and the first part of the second round. Tier 3 comes with high ceilings but more risk, whether we’re talking about age (old and young), questionable o-lines, lurking backups and new team situations, and the same can be said about tier 4. The bottom tiers have interesting players who could outplay their ADPs, so don’t sleep on them. For example, Danny Woodhead will be heavily involved in the Ravens’ passing game and should post consistent numbers as Joe Flacco’s safety valve.

How to approach the RB situation? Ideally you can snag at least one RB from either tier 1 or 2. Next, lock down at least 1 from the tier 3 group. With the tier 4 guys and lower, I suggest swinging for at least a few upside guys (e.g. Kareem Hunt, D’Onta Foreman, Joe Williams, etc. later on). Every season a few of the upside guys break out and end up factoring into league titles, so you should devote at least a few mid to late round resources to breakout candidates.

Finally, quick hits on three RBs who I expect will outperform their ADP, and are therefore reflected higher in my rankings:

Ty Montgomery – The Packers found that desperation can lead to success, at least in the case of moving a WR to RB mid-season. Ty Montgomery averaged just under 6 yards a carry last year – granted the sample size was just 77 carries. His performance was no fluke - look for Montgomery to continue as a key focal point for the Packers, contributing both in the rushing and passing games.

Mike Gillislee – Gillislee is an underrated RB, and a perfect fit for Patriots’ system. With LeGarrette Blount gone, Gillislee should find himself with the bulk of the goal line touches – and as the Patriots’ RB with the most carries. I’ve got him much higher on my board than what I’ve seen elsewhere. And a free tip to the Buffalo Bills – if the Patriots come calling for one of your players, you should keep him!

Note that this is a high risk pick, due to new team, injury concerns, Bill Belichick, etc. – so it’s not for the faint of heart. Think high risk/high reward situation.

Paul Perkins – Perkins finds himself on this list in large part due to opportunity – he’s the clear cut starter at RB for the Giants. While he possesses a limited ceiling, Perkins is a solid enough RB to average four yards a carry and accumulate RB2 stats in what otherwise figures to be a heavy passing offense.

Bonus Fourth RB:

Kareem Hunt – See below about my concerns re Spencer Ware, and you’ll understand why I’m pounding the table for Kareem Hunt. Let’s just say that Hunt’s the more skillful RB.

And three RBs who I consider to be overdrafted with respect to their ADP, and are therefore reflected lower in my rankings:

Lamar Miller – Miller had the chance last year to serve in the bell cow role and put up monster stats for a strong rushing offense, and he failed to impress. With D’Onta Foreman now on the scene and likely to steal some carries, I see Miller as a fading RB2.

Carlos Hyde – The Ohio State alum has surefire talent, but he has had major problems staying healthy. Add to this the fact that the 49ers added both Joe Williams and Tim Hightower to the team, and Hyde being a holdover from the pre-Kyle Shanahan regime, there’s potential for Hyde to bust this year. So just keep these issues in mind in your evaluation of Hyde.

Spencer Ware – The Chiefs drafted talented RB Kareem Hunt, who not only has a good chance to share carries with Ware, but has a chance to supplant him outright. He’s too risky as an RB2 for my taste. Conversely, I would target Hunt in the later rounds – he could be this year’s Jordan Howard.

Wide Receivers

Tier 1: Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Julio Jones, Mike Evans

Tier 2: AJ Green, Michael Thomas, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Amari Cooper, DeAndre Hopkins

Tier 3: Doug Baldwin, Demaryius Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Alshon Jeffrey

Tier 4: Keenan Allen, Terrelle Pryor, Allen Robinson, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Julian Edelman, Jarvis Landry, Tyreek Hill,

Tier 5: Martavis Bryant, Sammy Watkins, Donte Moncrief, Larry Fitzgerald, Willie Snead, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder, Stefon Diggs, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Devante Parker, Cameron Meredith, Cooper Kupp, Tyrell Williams, Rishard Matthews, Randall Cobb

Tier 6: Eric Decker, John Brown, Robert Woods, Mike Wallace, Corey Coleman, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Adam Thielen, Jeremy Maclin, Corey Davis

Tier 7: Marvin Jones, John Ross, Sterling Shepard, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Zay Jones, Breshad Perriman, Ted Ginn, Kenny Stills, Tavon Austin, Tyler Lockett, Kevin White

Analysis:

This year we’ve got a clear top four WR group that comprises tier 1. Each player should be drafted by no later than the middle of the first round of your draft. The tier 2 group should start falling off the board at the back end of round 1 and cleared out by the end of round 2. There’s only a minimal drop between tiers 2 and 3. As you fall into tier 4, you’ve got solid WR2s for your roster, just with more risk (i.e injury) or lower ceilings than the groups above.

Tier 5 is littered with intriguing options, some of which will end up in the upper tiers next year. High upside guys such as Hill, Bryant, Crowder, Parker, Meredith, Kupp and Ty Williams have a chance to provide great returns on investment, while veterans such as Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall and DeSean Jackson offer safer options with lower ceilings. Tiers 6 and 7 present some interesting speculative adds for your later rounds.

As you can see, the wide receiver position is quite deep yet again. No surprise here, with offenses having become passing-centric at a historic rate. How to approach the WR position? Aim to get two WRs from within tiers 1 through 3. You’ll then be set with two anchors at the WR position, with the freedom to draft for upside at the position. If you can get two rock solid WRs, then I’d draft I’d roll with the upside WRs with your other picks and see if a few of them pop. I highlighted a few of the guys in tier 5 already, and mention some favorite value picks of mine below.

Finally, quick hits on three WRs who I expect will outperform their ADP, and are therefore reflected higher in my rankings:

Terrelle Pryor – The Browns made a puzzling move (or non-move, in this case) when it failed to step up and re-sign Terrelle Pryor. The former quarterback blossomed as a wide receiver for the team, and now steps into a much better offense. With both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon departing the Redskins, look for Pryor to lead the team in receiving in his first year with the team.

Pierre Garcon – As mentioned above, Garcon has left the Redskins, now taking residence across the coast with the 49ers. Dipping into the 49ers’ passing game for a WR sleeper doesn’t seem prudent on its face, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense will ensure the ball moves through the air, and Hoyer will throw for more yards than you think. With Garcon already familiar with Shanahan’s offense, look for him to put up strong receiving numbers.

Cooper Kupp/ Robert Woods – The Rams new WR duo comes with little fanfare, which means very cheap draft prices. Each will easily beat their draft prices in Sean McVay’s new offensive system. Don’t be surprised to see each player approach 80 receptions and WR3 performance.

And three WRs who I consider to be overdrafted with respect to their ADP, and are therefore reflected lower in my rankings:

Jarvis Landry – Landry has been the Dolphins’ top receiver the last few years, but his production arrow is pointing down with both Kenny Stills and Devante Parker demanding an increase in targets. Plus, quarterback Ryan Tannehill doesn’t exactly possess the skills to commandeer a prolific passing attack. Landry, while a good receiver, has never scored more than 5 TDs in a year, and has a limited fantasy ceiling.

Brandon Marshall – Marshall’s fantasy situation improves as he transitions to New York’s other team, as Eli Manning > Ryan Fitzpatrick. That being said, the Giants have not only OBJ, but also Sterling Shepard and rookie tight end Evan Engram who will get targets. At 32 years old, Marshall has several years of tread on his tires as well. Don’t go overboard with your expectations for Marshall this year.

Kelvin Benjamin – The shine on Kelvin Benjamin has worn off quite a bit from his rookie season, as defenses have figured out how to play him. Benjamin has trouble getting separation from cornerbacks, and thus will have games where he disappears. With the Panthers having added multiple new offensive weapons, Benjamin will see less targets. He’s no higher than a low end WR3 for me, but his draft cost runs higher than that.

Tight Ends

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski

Tier 2: Jordan Reed, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen

Tier 3: Jimmy Graham, Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert, Kyle Rudolph

Tier 4: Hunter Henry, Martellus Bennett, Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper

Tier 5: OJ Howard, Cameron Brate, C.J. Fiedorowicz, Antonio Gates, Jason Witten

Analysis:

The draft board for tight ends looks quite predictable, with Gronk on top, Jordan Reed leading tier 2 and Jimmy Graham leading the tier 3 group in his return to fantasy prominence. The tier 4 bunch has lots of upside as well, essentially across the board.

With the depth at tight end, and lack of significant separation in tight end scoring after the first few studs, my suggested strategy is to wait and draft your guy in the later rounds. While Gronk is a game changing player, he’s injury prone and too risky to take early – at least for my taste. The concerns with Jordan Reed mirror those of Gronk. Let another owner expend early draft capital on those guys. There’s no rush to take your tight end, as serviceable starting options remain available into tier 4. I highlight two of my favorite values below.

Finally, quick hits on two TEs who I expect will outperform their ADP, and are therefore reflected higher in my rankings:

Jack Doyle – Andrew Luck has always relied on his tight ends, with Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen preceding Jack Doyle. Now with Allen no longer around, and Fleener long gone, Doyle gets the coveted spot as Luck’s primary tight end. With Doyle’s sure hands and Luck’s desire to feed the tight end, Doyle will post TE1 numbers.

Austin Hooper – Similar to Doyle, Austin Hooper became the primary tight end for his team this offseason, in this case with the departure of Jacob Tamme. As we saw last season, the Falcons’ run a prolific offense, with plenty of opportunities for the tight end to “get his”, even with a myriad of offensive options at Matt Ryan’s disposal.

And two TEs who I consider to be overdrafted with respect to their ADP, and are therefore reflected lower in my rankings:

Tyler Eifert – Throughout his career, Tyler Eifert has had a knack for finding the end zone, with 20 TDs in 37 games. That’s a great trait, especially for fantasy purposes. However, Eifert has not been able to stay healthy, having only played in 22 games the past three years. That’s enough concern for me to avoid him for how early you’ll need to draft him.

OJ Howard – OJ Howard has all-world talent, and I would not be surprised if he becomes a dominant tight end in the near future. That being said, my expectations for him are tempered for this season. The Bucs have a crowded receiving corps with Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Cameron Brate, Howard’s counterpart at TE. Too many folks ahead of Howard in the pecking order.

Defense/Special Teams

Tier 1: Denver, Seattle, Kansas City, Houston

Tier 2: New England, Arizona, Minnesota, Carolina, Cincinnati

Tier 3: New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville

Tier 4: Baltimore, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay, Miami, Oakland

Analysis:

The rankings above are straight forward, so there’s not much to expand upon here. Matchups always play a key role in terms of a defense’s standing from week to week, with only a few elite defenses serving as weekly plays. The strategy for drafting a defense depends significantly on your league’s scoring system. If the categories in your league provide for defenses to play a large role in scoring, then it’s understandable if you want to select a top team defense once your starting QB, WRs and RBs, along with a few key backups, are all in hand. Conversely, if defenses have tame scoring numbers in your league, then you should pick your team or teams towards the end of your draft. As referenced above, playing the weekly matchups game with defenses is advised.

To be used in conjunction with the position tier rankings, here’s the top 150 players for leagues with standard scoring systems, with bye weeks in parentheses.

David Johnson, RB – ARZ (8)
Le’Veon Bell, RB – PIT (9)
Antonio Brown, WR – PIT (9)
Odell Beckham Jr., WR – NYG (8)
Julio Jones, WR – ATL (5)
Mike Evans, WR – TB (11)
LeSean McCoy, RB – BUF (6)
AJ Green, WR – CIN (6)
Jordan Howard, RB – CHI (9)
Michael Thomas, WR – NO (5)
Jordy Nelson, WR – GB (8)
Jay Ajayi, RB – MIA (11)
Devonta Freeman, RB – ATL (5)
Dez Bryant, WR – DAL (6)
TY Hilton, WR – IND (11)
DeMarco Murray, RB – TEN (8)
Amari Cooper, WR – OAK (10)
DeAndre Hopkins, WR – HOU (7)
Melvin Gordon, RB – LAC (9)
Todd Gurley, RB – LAR (8)
Rob Gronkowski, TE – NE (9)
Doug Baldwin, WR – SEA (6)
Demaryius Thomas, WR – DEN (5)
Brandin Cooks, WR – NE (9)
Isaiah Crowell, RB – CLE (9)
Marshawn Lynch, RB – OAK (10)
Alshon Jeffrey, WR – PHI (10)
Ty Montgomery, RB – GB (8)
Joe Mixon, RB – CIN (6)
Leonard Fournette, RB – JAX (8)
Jordan Reed, TE – WAS (5)
Keenan Allen, WR – LAC (9)
Dalvin Cook, RB – MIN (9)
Terrelle Pryor, WR – WAS (5)
Mike Gillislee, RB – NE (9)
Aaron Rodgers, QB – GB (8)
Travis Kelce, TE – KC (10)
Allen Robinson, WR – JAX (8)
Tom Brady, QB – NE (9)
Michael Crabtree, WR – OAK (10)
Christian McCaffrey, RB – CAR (11)
Greg Olsen, TE – CAR (11)
Davante Adams, WR – GB (8)
Emmanuel Sanders, WR – DEN (5)
Golden Tate, WR – DET (7)
Julian Edelman, WR – NE (9)
Ezekiel Elliott, RB – DAL (6)
Lamar Miller, RB – HOU (7)
Jarvis Landry, WR – MIA (11)
Tyreek Hill, WR – KC (10)
Drew Brees, QB – NO (5)
Carlos Hyde, RB – SF (11)
Mark Ingram, RB – NO (5)
Martavis Bryant, WR – PIT (9)
Sammy Watkins, WR – LAR (8)
Donte Moncrief, WR – IND (11)
CJ Anderson, RB – DEN (5)
Larry Fitzgerald, WR – ARZ (8)
Paul Perkins, RB – NYG (9)
Frank Gore, RB – IND (11)
Willie Snead, WR – NO (5)
Spencer Ware, RB – KC (10)
Pierre Garcon, WR – SF (11)
Jamison Crowder, WR – WAS (5)
Stefon Diggs, WR – MIN (9)
Matt Ryan, QB – ATL (5)
Kelvin Benjamin, WR – CAR (11)
Brandon Marshall, WR – NYG (9)
DeSean Jackson, WR – TB (11)
Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ (11)
Russell Wilson, QB – SEA (6)
Thomas Rawls, RB – SEA (6)
Tevin Coleman, RB – ATL (5)
Devante Parker, WR – MIA (11)
Ameer Abdullah, RB – DET (7)
Andrew Luck, QB – IND (11)
Cameron Meredith, WR – CHI (9)
Cooper Kupp, WR – LAR (8)
Cam Newton, QB – CAR (11)
Tyrell Williams, WR – LAC (9)
Rishard Matthews, WR – TEN (8)
Robert Kelley, RB – WAS (5)
Jimmy Graham, TE – SEA (6)
Randall Cobb, WR – GB (8)
Adrian Peterson, RB – NO (5)
Jameis Winston, QB – TB (11)
Delanie Walker, TE – TEN (8)
Danny Woodhead, RB – BAL (10)
Terrance West, RB – BAL (10)
Eric Decker, WR – TEN (8)
John Brown, WR – ARZ (8)
Zach Ertz, TE – PHI (10)
Tyler Eifert, TE – CIN (6)
Derek Carr, QB – OAK (10)
Kyle Rudolph, TE – MIN (9)
Kirk Cousins, QB – WAS (5)
Doug Martin, RB – TB (11)
Robert Woods, WR – LAR (8)
Ben Roethlisberger, QB – PIT (9)
Derrick Henry, RB – TEN (8)
Kareem Hunt, RB – KC (10)
Mike Wallace, WR – BAL (10)
Eddie Lacy, RB – SEA (6)
Marcus Mariota, QB – TEN (8)
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB – TB (11)
Darren McFadden, RB – DAL (6)
LaGarrette Blount, RB – PHI (10)
Matt Forte, RB – NYJ (11)
Corey Coleman, WR – CLE (9)
Nelson Agholor, WR – PHI (10)
Jordan Matthews, WR – BUF (6)
Kenny Britt, WR – CLE (10)
Hunter Henry, TE – LAC (9)
Adam Thielen, WR – MIN (9)
Jeremy Maclin, WR – BAL (10)
Martellus Bennett, TE – GB (8)
CJ Prosise, RB – SEA (6)
Matthew Stafford, QB – DET (7)
Corey Davis, WR – TEN (8)
Rex Burkhead, RB – NE (9)
Philip Rivers, QB – LAC (9)
Duke Johnson, RB – CLE (10)
Dak Prescott, QB – DAL (6)
Denver Broncos, DEF/ST (5)
Theo Riddick, RB – DET (7)
Seattle Seahawks, DEF/ST (6)
Jack Doyle, TE – IND (11)
Marvin Jones, WR – DET (7)
John Ross, WR – CIN (6)
Eli Manning, QB – NYG (9)
Jonathan Stewart, RB – CAR (11)
Kansas City Chiefs, DEF/ST (10)
Sterling Shepard, WR – NYG (9)
Eric Ebron, TE – DET (7)
Tyrod Taylor, QB – BUF (6)
Houston Texans, DEF/ST (7)
Gio Bernard, RB – CIN (6)
Darren Sproles, RB – PHI (10)
Latavius Murray, RB – MIN (9)
Andy Dalton, QB – CIN (6)
Will Fuller, WR – HOU (7)
Austin Hooper, TE – ATL (5)
Josh Doctson, WR – WAS (5)
Zay Jones, WR – BUF (6)
Breshad Perriman, WR – BAL (10)
Samaje Perine, RB – WAS (5)
New England Patriots, DEF/ST (9)
Arizona Cardinals, DEF/ST (8)
Ted Ginn, WR – NO (5)
Minnesota Vikings, DEF/ST (9)

To be used in conjunction with the position tier rankings, here’s the top 150 players for leagues with points per reception scoring systems, with bye weeks in parentheses.