ESPN writer pumping the brakes on Lions' NFC North title hopes

Lions HC Dan Campbell recently told reporters that the hype surrounding his team entering this season has spiraled "out of control," and apparently, some in the media are in agreement.

On Friday, ESPN's Dan Graziano published an article judging several overreactions based on the events that transpired during the offseason. Although the Lions are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC North, Graziano isn't sold on the team yet, insisting many are overestimating that they're a shoo-in to capture the division title.  

When explaining his reasoning, Graziano claims he needs to see Detroit prove last season's strong finish wasn't a fluke before blindly putting his faith in the team succeeding in 2023. 

"Yes, everything is set up for the Lions to build off last season's strong finish and claim their first division title since 1993," Graziano wrote. "The thing is ... they haven't won their division since 1993! That division was called the NFC Central and included all of the current NFC North teams plus the Buccaneers.

"I like the Lions, too, but don't we need to see them win something before we're sure they're going to win something?" Graziano added. "What if the Vikings are really just that good at winning close games? What if [Packers] QB Jordan Love is a solid NFL starter? What if the Bears' offseason was even better than we thought?"

In his article, Graziano also notes that ESPN's Football Power Index gives Detroit a 43.2% chance to clinch the NFC North title, the seventh-highest probability for a division winner. By comparison, the model gives Minnesota the second-best odds to win the division, though with only a 28.7% chance.

Detroit won't be light on firepower, as it returns the majority of last season's offense, which was the fifth-highest scoring unit in the NFL (453 points). However, the Lions did revamp their backfield this offseason swapping out Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift for free agent signing David Montgomery and first-rounder Jahmyr Gibbs.

Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022, while Swift spent most of the year in Campbell's dog house. With the addition of Montgomery, a younger, more dynamic back than Williams, along with Gibbs, a dual-threat that should play a larger role than Swift did, Detroit's rushing attack is set to be even more explosive this season.

The key question for the Lions this season will be whether their free-agent acquisitions will improve the defense and, if so, by how much. Last season, Detroit allowed the third-most points (427) and passing yards (4,446) in the NFL but substantially bolstered the secondary this offseason. Among the most significant signees were cornerback Cameron Sutton and safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Emmanuel Moseley, three players who played on top-10 defenses last season.

While Chicago made improvements during the offseason, and nobody really knows what to expect from Green Bay, Minnesota appears to be Detroit's biggest competition for the division crown this season. The Vikings comfortably won the NFC North last season with a 13-4 record but had a negative point differential and allowed just as many points as the Lions did. 

And unlike Detroit, Minnesota got worse over the offseason, losing key members of its defense in cornerback Patrick Peterson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. Not to mention Minnesota also cut running back Dalvin Cook, a four-time Pro Bowler who has recorded at least 1,300 all-purpose yards in each of the last four seasons.

It'll likely take a few games to determine just how good Detroit will be this season. However, the Lions have an excellent opportunity to measure their roster against the NFL's best in their season-opener against the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sept. 7.