Chicago Bears ceiling and floor for 2023

The Bears finished 3-14 in 2022 but have a decent shot at improving and maybe even surprising in the NFC North, which is seemingly up for grabs. 

Chicago made significant changes to its roster, but whether they will lead to a jump forward remains to be seen. Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Bears in 2023. 

Ceiling: 8-9

Like the rival Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love, the Bears will go as far as their young quarterback will take them. Justin Fields, a scintillating runner (1,143 yards last season), has a long way to go as a passer. 

For starters, the Bears must play better within the division. Chicago went 0-6 against the NFC North in 2022, including blowout losses to close the season against the Detroit Lions (41-10) and Minnesota Vikings (29-13). Chicago ends the 2023 season with four division matchups over their final six games. (Full schedule analysis here)

If Fields, who has a shiny new weapon in wideout D.J. Moore, can steer the team to better results within the division, Chicago will surpass its 2022 win total. Chicago has several winnable games early in their schedule, including matchups against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 2), Denver Broncos (Week 4), Washington Commanders (Week 5) and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 7). 

If things go well early, the Bears could be favored against the Cleveland Browns (Week 15), Arizona Cardinals (Week 16) and Atlanta Falcons (Week 17).  

Floor: 6-11 

Leaping from the basement doesn't usually happen overnight in the NFL, and despite some improvements on both sides of the ball, the Bears still could struggle. Even if Fields takes a step forward as a passer — he completed a below-average 60.4% of his passes last season — it might not matter if the defense doesn't also improve from a downright rotten performance in 2022.

Chicago ranked last in opponents points per game (27.2) last season. A repeat performance will doom the Bears.

The Bears made significant changes on defense, bringing in linebackers Tremaine Edwards, T.J. Edwards and defensive lineman DeMarcus Walker, but they remain relatively thin on the unit. With a lack of impact players on defense, the Bears could find themselves in trouble against offensive powerhouses Kansas City (Week 3), Minnesota (Week 6 and 12), the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 8) and Detroit (Week 11 and 14).

If things go poorly for the Bears during that stretch, a 6-11 finish or worse is possible.