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Best and worst NFL teams to bet on through three weeks
David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

Best and worst NFL teams to bet on through three weeks

Betting trends matter, and being abreast of where teams stand should be an important step in your NFL research. We highlighted the best and worst teams against the spread (ATS) last week, along with the best teams at going over or under, and Week 3 held true for many of these teams.

Best teams ATS

Heading into Week 3, five teams were 2-0 ATS, with two of them facing off in the Bills and Dolphins. Here we stand post-Sunday, and three of those squads are now 3-0 ATS.

  1. Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
  2. Detroit Lions (3-0)
  3. Miami Dolphins (3-0)
  4. Houston Texans (2-0-1)

The Falcons picked up their first win of the season with a 27-23 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The biggest win of the weekend belonged to Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins, taking down the 2-0 Buffalo Bills. Miami is now 3-0 in the standings and against the spread.

Houston has not yet been on the losing end of a pick ATS, covering twice and playing to a push in Week 2 against the Broncos. Their latest game was a 23-20 loss to the Bears.

Worst teams ATS

Eight teams were 0-2 against the spread heading into Week 3, but we saw some evening out, with six of those teams covering and winning.

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (0-3)
  2. New Orleans Saints (0-3)
  3. New England Patriots (0-2-1)

The Raiders have had one of the more disappointing starts to their year, the only 0-3 team in the NFL. This was to be expected after trading for Davante Adams.

New England will likely see some larger spreads moving forward with starting QB Mac Jones out for the foreseeable future. Believe it or not, Brian Hoyer is still around and will be the Patriots starter.

The Saints lost to the Carolina Panthers and do not look to be a true contender in the NFC.

Best teams: Over

Four teams were highlighted here last week, and three of them continued their perfect record against the over.

  1. Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
  2. Cleveland Browns (3-0)
  3. Detroit Lions (3-0)

If you had parlayed the Falcons and Lions ATS and their game's overs each week, you'd have accrued quite the winnings three weeks in.

Cleveland is a surprising team to be found here, with our theory that Jacoby Brissett at quarterback given bettors a soft total given the uncertainties around the offense's ability to score. The Browns are averaging 28.3 points per game, the sixth-highest total in the league.

It's worth noting, the Cleveland over only hit on Thursday Night due to one of the worst beats under bettors could have, as the Browns took in a meaningless fumble as time expired to win 29-17.

Best teams: Under

This was a packed list after two weeks, with nearly half the NFL not yet going over a game total. That list shrunk this week, with nine of the teams finally going over.

  1. Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)
  2. Denver Broncos (3-0)
  3. Green Bay Packers (3-0)
  4. Indianapolis Colts (3-0)
  5. San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
  6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0)

This Russell Wilson-led Broncos offense looks absolutely anemic, and despite being 2-1 it's very much time to wonder about what Denver can accomplish this season.

Green Bay and Tampa Bay's defenses have been keeping their games low-scoring, and it helps that neither team has had the stability of a top receiver in their games.

Week 4 Games of Interest

We have just one game of overlap between two trends in Week 4.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons — Both the Browns and Falcons are 3-0 against the over up to this point. It appears the market is finally catching on, as the total is currently 49.5, one of the highest of the weekend. Browns games have averaged 52.33 points per game this season, while Falcons games have seen total points average 53.67 points. Atlanta and Cleveland have both scored more than 26 points in all three games this season. 


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