2023 Team Needs: Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints

A couple of notes. Cap space projections are from Over The Cap and based on a salary cap of $224.8 million. It’s also using OTC’s effective cap space, which takes into account what teams have to budget to sign their rookies and fill out the offseason 51-man roster. 

Compensatory picks are from OTC’s projections, which are historically the most accurate in the industry. Their methodology is outlined here. The comp picks awarded through the NFL’s minority hiring incentive program have also been accounted for. 

A note on the draft order: because the Dolphins forfeited their first-round pick for tampering, the slotting for the picks afterward has been impacted. For instance, the Steelers have the first pick in the second round from the Bears which normally would be No. 33 overall. Instead, it’s No. 32. Keep that in mind for every pick after No. 20.

Buccaneers

Projected Cap Space: -$58,226,825

Draft Picks: 9

• 1st (No. 19)
• 2nd (No. 50)
• 3rd (No. 82)
• 5th (No. 155)
• 5th (No. 175, comp)
• 6th (No. 181, from IND)
• 6th (No. 196)
• 7th (No. 232, from NYJ)
• 7th (No. 253, comp)

Notable Free Agents: CB Jamel Dean, LB Lavonte David, S Mike Edwards, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, DT Akiem Hicks, OLB Anthony Nelson, S Keanu Neal, OLB Carl Nassib, WR Julio Jones, DL William Gholston, DB Logan Ryan, WR Scotty Miller, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Breshad Perriman, RB Giovani Bernard

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

Tom Brady leaves the Buccaneers with $35 million in dead money, a hole at quarterback and three years of memories, including a 32-18 record, three playoff appearances and a Super Bowl win. All in all, more than a fair trade. Now Tampa Bay has to turn its attention to the future at the position and they aren’t in a great position to land an upgrade right away. They don’t have the cap flexibility to chase another top option at the position, and their first-round pick is probably too low for a top prospect unless they want to surrender assets to move up. It will be fascinating to see how the organization navigates this. 

2 – Safety

The Bucs have several pending free agents at the position. Some of them are older players and there’s a natural breaking point as the team hits the reset button. Others like Edwards are young but might command too much in free agency for Tampa Bay to be able to re-sign. In the end, the team could be starting almost from scratch here, with only S/nickel Antoine Winfield Jr. under contract. 

3 – Cornerback

There are more pieces in place at corner than safety but the Bucs have a lot of pending free agents here too. Dean will not be cheap and Tampa Bay just paid up to keep CB Carlton Davis last offseason, so it does not seem like he’ll be back. Murphy-Bunting would be cheaper but Tampa Bay might want to see if it can do better. Between corner and safety, and assuming nickel as the base defense, the Buccaneers need at least three new starters and probably more for depth. 

Falcons

Projected Cap Space: $51,446,457

Draft Picks: 8

• 1st (No. 8)
• 2nd (No. 44)
• 3rd (No. 75)
• 4th (No. 110, from TEN)
• 4th (No. 113)
• 5th (No. 161, from JAX)
• 7th (No. 226, from LV)
• 7th (No. 247, from BUF)

Notable Free Agents: RT Kaleb McGary, CB Isaiah Oliver, OLB Lorenzo Carter, LB Rashaan Evans, CB Rashad Fenton, OL Germain Ifedi, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, OL Elijah Wilkinson, TE Anthony Firkser, P Bradley Pinion

Biggest Needs:

1 – Outside linebacker

Over the past three seasons, the Falcons have recorded 68 total sacks. The Eagles topped that figure last season alone, and while they had a historically strong pass rush, the fact remains that Atlanta has been bad at affecting the quarterback for years now. Fixing that has to be the team’s top priority if they really are content with 2022 third-round QB Desmond Ridder, as it seems for now. The Falcons have used some draft resources here recently but they finally have cap space to play with after years in cap hell, and it would be a surprise if they didn’t bring in a more proven commodity to fortify the position while the youngsters hopefully develop. 

2 – Cornerback

2022 was bumpier for Falcons CB AJ Terrell but he remains one of the few foundational pieces the team has on defense and should be a candidate for a big deal this summer. (As an aside, it would not be surprising if the Falcons earmarked more of their cap space for extensions as opposed to free agent additions than fans might expect or prefer, as HC Arthur Smith seems to have a conservative philosophy about free agency.) Outside of Terrell, the Falcons need a lot of help at corner, however. Oliver has shown flashes as a competent nickel but he’s set for free agency. Veteran CB Casey Hayward is a potential cap cut after missing most of last season, even though he played well when he was healthy. 

3 – Defensive line

Building up the defense will take up a lot of the Falcons’ efforts this offseason, as they’ve used a lot of draft capital on the offensive side of the ball in recent years. They still have DT Grady Jarrett who’s playing well but not much outside of him. As they work to become stouter against the run and more dangerous to opposing quarterbacks, reinforcing the line of scrimmage will be imperative. 

Panthers

Projected Cap Space: -$13,243,182

Draft Picks: 7

• 1st (No. 9)
• 2nd (No. 40)
• 2nd (No. 61, from SF)
• 3rd (No. 93, from SF)
• 4th (No. 114)
• 4th (No. 132, from SF)
• 5th (No. 147)

Notable Free Agents: C Bradley Bozeman, QB Sam Darnold, DT Matt Ioannidis, RB D’Onta Foreman, OL Cameron Erving, S Juston Burris, LB Cory Littleton, DL Henry Anderson, CB Myles Hartsfield (RFA), K Eddy Pineiro 

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

Maybe this is the year the Panthers finally get this position right, as they’ve been searching for a replacement for former superstar QB Cam Newton since moving on from him before the 2020 season. They have some options. The No. 9 pick might put them in range to draft one of the top prospects, though it’s also low enough that they might have to trade up depending on how they grade the class. Going after a veteran quarterback also can’t be entirely ruled out, as they’ve been linked to former Raiders QB Derek Carr. No matter what they do, it’s imperative they get the decision right. 

2 – Linebacker

Panthers LB Shaq Thompson could be cut to save $13 million this offseason, and given that would wipe out Carolina’s current cap deficit and there’s a new defensive coaching staff coming in, it seems more likely than not, even if Thompson remains a productive player. If Thompson isn’t back, the team will need someone else to pair with LB Frankie Luvu, who turned a promising 2021 season into a breakout 2022 as a full-time starter. 

3 – Tight end

You could also make a case for safety, even over linebacker. The new system under DC Ejiro Evero places more weight on the secondary and teams that run those systems usually allocate their resources accordingly. But on offense, the team has struggled at tight end ever since moving on from Greg Olsen. New HC Frank Reich is known for having an affinity for the position, so it’s probably safe to say improving over the current group of Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble will be a high priority. It helps that there will be plenty of options in free agency and a deep draft class at the position. 

Saints

Projected Cap Space: -$58,227,972

Draft Picks: 8

• 1st (No. 29, from SF via DEN & MIA)
• 2nd (No. 40)
• 3rd (No. 71)
• 4th (No. 115)
• 5th (No. 148)
• 5th (No. 167, from PHI)
• 7th (No. 229)
• 7th (No. 260, comp)

Notable Free Agents: DE Marcus Davenport, QB Andy Dalton, LB Kaden Elliss, DT David Onyemata, WR Jarvis Landry, RB Mark Ingram, WR Marquez Callaway (RFA), TE Juwan Johnson (RFA), DE Tanoh Kpassagnon, CB Chris Harris, DB P.J. Williams, S Daniel Sorensen, DT Shy Tuttle 

Biggest Needs:

1 – Quarterback

Noticing a theme here in the NFC South? The Saints were the first team to host Carr for a visit and should still be in the thick of things to land him. Their cap situation looks dire but there is a way out to be able to fit Carr under contract, or another veteran quarterback. Bringing back Dalton is always an option, too. Though the team got back in the first round of the draft by trading the rights to HC Sean Payton, they’re probably picking too low to have a realistic shot at a top quarterback. You never rule out an aggressive trade when it comes to the Saints, though. 

2 – Wide receiver

The torch has been passed from Saints WR Michael Thomas to last year’s first-round pick, fellow Ohio State WR Chris Olave. The team will release Thomas with a June 1 designation ahead of free agency and move ahead with Olave leading their receiving corps. They shouldn’t stop there, however. Most teams need three starting-caliber wideouts, and with Landry set for free agency the Saints will be relying on Callaway (if he’s brought back) and Rashid Shaheed to round out their starting lineup. Both are young players who have flashed but might be better suited to be No. 3’s at this point in their career. A sure-handed veteran to compliment Olave would be a great fit here. 

3 – Defensive line

The Saints’ defense took a concerning step back for part of last season. In addition to the work New Orleans has to do on the offensive side of the ball, they should also start to look to the future on defense where a number of key players are getting older. The priority should be the defensive line. Even if they’re able to keep Onyemata and Davenport, who are on voiding contracts and should have healthy markets in free agency, the Saints need reinforcements at defensive tackle and defensive end. Star DE Cameron Jordan remained productive in 2022 but he turns 34 in July. Finding a successor for him, if former first-round DE Payton Turner doesn’t take a step forward, will be imperative for the team. Turner has played in just 13 of a possible 34 games and has three sacks.