The skinny on chances for Jokic, Nuggets to win NBA title

The Slim Joker

The concept of a slim Nikola Jokic sounds fantastic — he’ll be able to log more minutes, won’t wear down late in games and will defend pick and rolls more effectively. But be careful to not conflate weight loss with being in optimal basketball shape. Shedding weight can lessen the load on your joints and make you look and feel better, but it doesn’t automatically make you quicker, faster or more athletic. Athleticism is not inversely correlated with a player’s weight or body fat percentage – look no further than Zion Williamson. And even if it does improve, for example, Jokic’s lateral agility, the corresponding loss in strength might yield a net negative when compared to the increased agility.

For every Marc Gasol, whose weight loss enabled him to become a Defensive Player of the Year and an elite pick-and-roll/pop big man in Memphis, there are players who slim down only to discover that they’ve lost the thing that made them so special before: their ability to overpower opponents. This happened to Love when he shed his “baby fat” — he went from owning the paint in his last four seasons in Minnesota (23.5 ppg. and 13.7 rpg.) to playing on the perimeter and averaging 17.2 ppg. and 10 rpg in Cleveland. Ditto for LeBron James. Recall he lost 20 pounds on a Paleo diet before the 2014-15 season and had his worst regular season since his rookie year (25.3 ppg., 7.4 apg., 6.0 rpg. in only 69 games) as he slowly gained the weight back, before returning to his usual dominant playoff form (30.1 ppg., 11.3 rpg., and 8.5 apg. in 20 playoff games).

Some players are just better when they’re heftier, especially those whose games are as contact-heavy as Jokic’s. The Joker, whose athleticism is centered on power and leverage, could be a svelte 220 pounds, but he’s still never going to blow past a defender with a lightning-quick first step. 

Will Jokic’s weight loss allow him to up his minutes per game from 32.3 during the regular season to the 39.8 he logged last postseason while putting less stress on his body? Probably. But will he be able to punish an undersized defender like Houston’s PJ Tucker or the Clippers' Marcus Morris in the post and on the boards? Will he be able to bully the likes of Anthony Davis or Kristaps Porzingis in the paint? Or fend off Khal Drogo Steven Adams around the basket? The answers to those questions are paramount to the Nuggets’ 2020 playoff success.

The case for the Nuggets making a deep playoff run

Jokic’s noticeable weight loss doubles as pretty much the only time anyone’s mentioned anything Nuggets-related since the season was suspended (well, besides that time Jamal Murray’s Instagram account was “hacked”). This is somewhat surprising because, on paper, the Nuggets are a title contender. Is everyone sleeping on them?

The Case for Slim Jokic and the Nuggets obviously begins with Jokic’s production. He proved himself to be a dependable superstar in his first playoff stint last spring, averaging 25.1 ppg., 13 rpg. and 8.4 apg. in 14 games. Assuming Denver gets something close to that from The Joker, and an improvement in Murray’s game-to-game consistency (24.1 ppg. and 6.0 apg. in Denver’s seven wins; 18.4 ppg. and 3.4 apg. in Denver’s seven losses), the Nuggets have the ability to beat anyone considering the depth and talent of their 10 best players.

Denver is 43-22, the third-best record in the Western Conference and sixth best in the league. The Nuggets have also beaten all of the teams ahead of them in the standings (Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, Clippers and Celtics) at least once and are 6-4 overall against them. And with eight regular-season games remaining, the Nuggets could jump the Clippers for the two-seed in the Western Conference playoffs (1.5 games back). The overall record and record against the league’s premier teams should make Denver formidable in the playoffs.

While the Nuggets aren’t elite on offense (ninth-best rating) or defense (13^th), they have a balanced attack and aren’t overreliant on their performance on one end of the court. Denver, already with the second-slowest pace in the league, also will be right at home when the pace of play inevitably slows during the playoffs. As the de facto point guard in the half court, Jokic spearheads an offense that moves the ball beautifully (fourth in the league in team assists), leading to open shots and easy baskets (sixth-most efficient field goal percentage in the NBA).

The case against the Nuggets being a legitimate contender

Even if Jokic repeats his playoff performance from last spring and Murray plays like he did in Denver’s seven playoff wins, the Nuggets still won’t have the best superstar duo in the Western Conference. Jokic and Murray at their best are still not as good as LeBron and AD or Kawhi Leonard and Paul George at their best. Perhaps not even Harden and Russell Westbrook at their best. That’s no knock on them –- they’re by far the youngest and least experienced of those superstar duos.

The Nuggets are going to need a third and sometimes fourth player to produce at close to a star’s level. Will Barton (15.1 ppg., 6.3 rpg. and 3.7 apg.), Paul Millsap (12.0 ppg., 5.9 rpg.) and Gary Harris (10.4 ppg.) are the most obvious candidates, as they’ve been consistent veteran contributors for the past couple of seasons. But Barton has never shown that gear in the postseason, and while Millsap has in the past, at 35, he's clearly no longer in his prime. Harris at one point seemed destined for that role (17.5 ppg., 49-40-83 shooting splits in 2017-18), but his confidence on offense has fallen off a cliff the past two seasons.

The Nuggets might need to unleash Michael Porter Jr. to get that star- level production from a third banana. Despite his youth and limited action (14.0 mpg.), MPJ has flashed star potential all season. His per-36 numbers are quite impressive – 19.2 points, 10.7 rebounds – and his shooting splits (50-42-77) are excellent as well. However, given coach Mike Malone’s reluctance to play MPJ consistent minutes all season, we still might be a year or two away from getting that kind of playoff production from him.

In addition to their relative inexperience and lack of a third star, the Nuggets' also won’t have their usual altitudinous home-court advantage. At 25-8 in the Pepsi Center in Denver, the Nuggets had the fifth-best home record in the NBA. Unfortunately, they’ll be playing 100 percent of their playoff games at 82 feet above sea level in Orlando instead of at 5,280 feet above sea level in Denver.

The prediction

If these playoffs were proceeding under normal conditions, the Nuggets would be a terrifying second-round opponent for the Lakers and Clippers. Denver’s huge home-court advantage, combined with its deep, talented roster, would keep the score close in most every game. Without that, it would seem to suggest Jokic and Co. must wait another year to emerge as serious title contenders. I still expect them to be a “tough out” in the second round for whichever L.A. team they inevitably square off against. However, without some injury luck, I don’t see skinny Jokic being quite strong enough to lift the Nuggets to that elite tier of contenders until he’s had some time to get used to his new body.