NBA best bets: Last-minute futures for the 2023-24 season

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The two closest teams to the Nuggets in the Western Conference, the Phoenix Suns and the Golden State Warriors, aren't deep enough to compete with them in a seven-game series. Neither are the Los Angeles Lakers, who still have no answers for Denver's starting five. It's tough to choose between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference, but the Nuggets are decisively above the second tier of teams in the West. Denver has the best value among the favorites to win the title.

Atlanta Hawks over 42.5 wins (-110 FanDuel)

This number doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Hawks won 41 games last season while dealing with a rotating cast of Nate McMillan, Joe Prunty and Quin Snyder at head coach. They should have no problem improving by at least two wins with stability on the coaching staff.

Atlanta ranked fourth last year in scoring but 26th in points allowed, and you can bet Snyder's main focus is going to be straightening out the defense. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray should be more efficient together with a full season to gel, and this roster has some underrated depth with Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okonwu and breakout candidates A.J. Griffin and Jalen Johnson. 

San Antonio Spurs under 29.5 wins (-120 DK)

I'm as excited as anyone to watch Victor Wembanyama take the NBA by storm, but he's not going to translate to wins right away. This is still a young, flawed roster that gave up the most points per game in the NBA last season. Wemby will help alleviate some of those issues in Year 1, but the Spurs are going to be careful not to overplay him and risk injury.

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San Antonio will be a turnstile on the defensive end whenever Wembanyama is on the bench, and it's going to take a while for the youngest team in the league (average age of 23.2) to learn how to win in this league. 

Jalen Brunson to win Clutch Player of the Year (+2200 FD)

Brunson is the go-to guy for the Knicks in the clutch, and he's cool as a cucumber when the pressure ratchets up. Last season, Brunson shot 51.6 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from three in clutch minutes. He also averaged a career-high 24.0 points per game and led the Knicks with 8.7 win shares despite playing just 68 games. 

New York should be an improved team this season, but a lot of that will depend on how Brunson performs down the stretch in close games. If he repeats his clutch numbers from last year and leads the Knicks to a top-four seed in the East, +2200 will be great value by the end of the season.