NBA best bets: Expert picks and predictions for Monday, Feb. 26

Jaden Ivey Over 13.5 Points at Knicks

7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass

By Joe Dellera

I think this line is an overreaction to his eight-point game against the Magic last time out.

When we look at Ivey's game log, it's not like his usage was down. He was 3-of-14 from the field but still had a 25% usage rate.

His history, when playing 20+ minutes, he has hit this number in 21 out of 30 games. He averages 18.1 points, so if you can't get 13.5 and it moves to 14.5 then that is still very playable. This is a good spot against a New York team that is very thin right now.

Over the last two weeks, New York has the 4th-worst defensive rating in the NBA. They are 1-5 since Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart started a podcast, so we are going to go with Ivey to score tonight.

Nets-Grizzlies Over 214.5

8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass

By Matt Moore

The Nets offense has been pretty poor lately. They look like a team that has given up on the season as they are averaging 103.8 points per game in February.

Some of this is simply playing the math. The Nets are still one of the top-10 teams in 3-point rate and the Grizzlies don't have much of a veteran presence or star power right now. They do have guys that can score in Vince Williams and GG Jackson.

Obviously, this game won't be super high-scoring but look, model-wise I can't get there. This is just a pitifully low number in 2024 so I am expecting to see some points.

Heat +7.5 at Kings

10 p.m. ET, NBA TV

By Matt Moore

The Heat and Pelicans decided to exchange pleasantries on the court the other night, so a bunch of players are suspended and a few players are injured.

The Kings are also on a back-to-back and are 3-5 against the spread in that spot this season. It is nice for them to be at home, but this is such a huge let-down spot with how many guys are out for Miami.

I think that has to be a part of the equation. The Kings at home against under .500 teams are 5-8 against the spread. While the Heat are not under .500, they profile to be such without so many players. I will take this and trust the zombie-Heat to stay in this.

Caleb Martin Over Points + Rebounds + Assists at Kings

10 p.m. ET, NBA TV

By Jim Turvey

I want to make sure that I don't bet this and then hear that Rozier is playing, or Herro etc. Wait on this number and the starters to be playing tonight.

Last year while Herro was out, Martin averaged 17 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists as a starter. Those are massively different numbers than what he does off the bench and I don't think the books will be able to properly set this number.

I don't want to blindly give this out, so we are going to wait and see but in all likelihood, I will be betting this prop.

Malik Monk Over 16.5 Points vs. Heat

10 p.m. ET, NBA TV

By Jim Turvey

Monk is a streaky player which is hard to cap. He is averaging 20.4 in his last nine games and has cleared this prop in eight of his last nine. This is also a back-to-back spot for the Kings and the Heat.

He gets significantly more minutes in back-to-back games and has a much higher ceiling in the second legs of these games.

Keep an eye on the line, as we are still waiting for some numbers to drop. We will play this up to 17.5.

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