NBA Best Bets: 9 expert picks for Wednesday, Feb. 28

Mavericks vs. Raptors

Wednesday, Feb, 28, 7:30 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Mavericks -2.5 (BetRivers)

By Chris Baker

This is a back-to-back for the Mavericks, but they're in a legitimate playoff race, and none of their rotation players have been listed as questionable so far. There's just no world where this line should be -4 if everyone is healthy for Dallas.

The Mavs are coming off a tightly-contested, heartbreaking loss to the Cavs last night, and they’ve now lost two straight games on their road trip. They can’t keep dropping games if they want to get out of the play-in.

The Raptors have virtually no one to protect the rim and prevent Luka Doncic from probing into the paint. Jakob Poeltl is listed as questionable, and if he can’t play, the Raptors will be compromised on the defensive glass and at the rim.

Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford should eat when Poeltl is off the court. The Raptors have been absolutely awful when Poeltl is off the court since they traded away Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby. When Poeltl has been off the court, they have a -15.7 net rating and are allowing an astonishing 127.5 points per 100 possessions on defense.

That net rating is far worse than any of the worse teams in the NBA like the Pistons and Grizzlies.

I like Mavs -2.5 regardless of Poeltl's status, but if he's ruled out, I’d be comfortable playing the Mavericks up to -4. Back Dallas to get back into the win column tonight.

Pick: Mavericks -2.5

Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)

By Joe Dellera

Scottie Barnes and the Raptors host the Mavericks tonight on Luka Doncic’s birthday.

I expect Barnes to find success on the glass. His rebounds prop is set at 7.5, a number he has exceeded in six of his last seven games with 10-plus in five of them.

Looking at this specific matchup, Barnes has secured 14 and 11 boards in his last two against Dallas. The Mavericks allow the second-most rebounds per game to their opponents (54.5), and if Jakob Poeltl (ankle) is out, this will only increase Barnes’ opportunities.

I expect Barnes to exceed 7.5 rebounds tonight.

Pick: Scottie Barnes Over 7.5 Rebounds

Pelicans vs. Pacers

Wednesday, Feb, 28, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Over 238 (Bet365)

By Chris Baker

The Pacers rank 27th in defensive rebound rate, while the Pelicans are ninth in offensive rebound rate. The Pels should have consistent strength and size edges down low with Jonas Valanciunas and Zion Williamson.

Indiana also fouls a lot, ranking 29th in free-throw rate allowed, while the New Orleans offense is the ninth-best in the NBA at drawing fouls.

A massive edge for the Pacers offense will be 3-point shooting, as the Pelicans rank 29th in 3-point attempt rate, allowing opponents to get off 40.8% of their shots from deep. The Pelicans have been fortunate that opponents are shooting just 35.2% on these looks, the second-worst mark in the NBA this season.

The Pels defense is definitely due for some regression, and the Pacers are perfectly wired to exploit their weak 3-point defense, as they rank seventh in 3-point percentage and 13th in 3-point attempt rate.

Aaron Nesmith playing would be a huge boost to their spacing, as Doug McDermott will also be out here.

I think these teams match up poorly with each other, and this over/under should be closer to 241.

Pick: Over 238

Kings vs. Nuggets

Wednesday, Feb, 28, 9 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Nuggets ML -286 (BetRivers)

By Michael Fiddle

Usually, Nuggets ML at home needs no further explanation. But let's add some context here.

The Nuggets enter this game with a clean injury report and as winners of three in a row, as they look to make a push back up the standings for a top seed in the Western Conference.

They also have a matchup advantage against the Kings, as we've seen over the last few years. The Kings don't have the interior defense to deal with Nikola Jokic, and they're consistently getting worse looks and losing the shot quality scores.

The reason to play the ML instead of the spread is because of the movement through the number 7. This line opened at -6.5, which I would always take. But since it moved through the 7, which is a common outcome in NBA games, I would rather not follow the spread steam and just play the ML.

When I do this, I don't increase my risk; I just play for less of a take-home win. I'll play one unit on the Nuggets ML.

Pick: Nuggets ML -286

De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

The Sacramento Kings head to Denver to take on the Nuggets tonight. The Kings look to hand the Nuggets their first loss post-All-Star break as they continue to jockey for position in a crowded Western Conference.

Although he's listed on the injury report with a knee contusion, one player I’m targeting is De’Aaron Fox.

Fox has been incredible against the Nuggets as a facilitator. In three games this season, he has averaged 11.3 assists (8, 10, 16) on 13.7 potentials per game. He has seen a clear uptick in assists with Jamal Murray struggling to stay on his hip.

The Kings will need to lean heavily on Fox to keep this game competitive, and I expect him to exceed his 5.5 assists prop, a number he has cleared in seven of his last eight games.

Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists

Lakers vs. Clippers

Wednesday, Feb, 28, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
LeBron James Over 1.5 3s (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

LeBron James has hit two or more 3s in 36 of the 51 games he has played this year. You may think to yourself, "Wow, this should really be set to 2.5 then, right?"

No — he's hit exactly two 3s in 17 of those 36 games, meaning he's hit three or more triples just 19 times this season. Got all that? Good.

James has also hit this in five straight and in all but one of his last 13 appearances.

Need I say more?

Pick: LeBron James Over 1.5 3s (-135)

D'Angelo Russell Over 25.5 PRA (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Back to the well because this one's worked.

We need to accept that D'Angelo Russell has been good this season. He's having the season many thought Austin Reaves would. D'Lo is so clearly the Lakers' third-best player on a consistent basis.

But this prop is still slightly low.

Russell has gone over 25.5 PRA in seven straight games and in two of his three against the Clippers this season. He's averaging about 23-7-3 over his last 19 games — a six-week sample size.

I expected this to sit around 27.5 or so, and it may before tip-off, but Russell has produced regardless of who's on the floor with him.

For what it's worth, LeBron James is also questionable.

Pick: D'Angelo Russell Over 25.5 PRA (-125)

Norman Powell Over 18.5 Points (ESPN BET)

By Joe Dellera

The Clippers will be without Paul George tonight, and the player I expect to step up in his absence is Norman Powell.

On the season, Powell has averaged 13.2 points in games playing alongside George, but in the four games without him, he has averaged 19.3 per game. That's a significant spike in usage and minutes.

This matchup against the Lakers is exploitable as well.

The Lakers allow the sixth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts, and their opponents shoot 37.6% from deep, the eighth-highest percentage in the NBA. Powell is an elite 3-point shooter (46%), but his ability to score at every level is why I’m targeting his points rather than his 3s.

I expect Powell to exceed 18.5 points tonight.

Pick: Norman Powell Over 18.5 Points

Ivica Zubac Over 9.5 Rebounds (BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

The Los Angeles Clippers “host” the Lakers tonight in a Battle for L.A.

One of the most intriguing matchups here comes on the interior between Ivica Zubac and Anthony Davis.

Zubac has played well in this matchup with nine and 19 boards in games against the Lakers this season while playing 30 and 38 minutes in those games, respectively.

This is a spot where the Clips need him on the floor to try and handle Davis, and his minutes have seen an uptick in these games compared to the 27.5 he averages on the season.

When Zubac has played 20-plus minutes, he has recorded 10-plus rebounds in half of those games. If his playing time bumps up to 25-plus, then he’s averaged 10.6 and exceeded this mark in 61% of games (17-of-28).

Pick: Ivica Zubac Over 9.5 Rebounds